It appears that the White Sox have pulled lefthander Mark Buehrle off of the market, with designs on signing him to a contract that would keep him in Chicago through at least 2012.
It’s an interesting decision. As a lefty having a good year, Buehrle would have brought a considerable return in a trade, with the only downside being that he’s a half-season rental. The pitchers the White Sox will shop now, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez, have been less effective than Buehrle, lack the southpaw bonus, but are signed beyond the end of this season. Kenny Williams should be able to move at least one of them, and with the pitching depth the White Sox have in the upper levels of their system, can do so without costing the Sox much in the short or long term.
Normally, I would praise this move. I’ve written before that because of the amount of money in the game right now, and the way it drives up free-market salaries, teams are almost always better off signing their players before they hit free agency. Locking up Buehrle for-and these are just the numbers that showed up in my inbox-four years and $50 million or so is a bargain compared to what he would get on the market. After all, you can make a decent argument that Buehrle is comparable to Barry Zito: a durable lefthander who always takes the ball. In fact, the perceived difference between the two is largely a park effect and Zito’s BBWAA hardware, as the following chart, comparing some neutral measures, shows:
ERA+ Stuff PRAR Zito Buehrle Zito Buehrle Zito Buehrle 2000 174 123 24 3 46 14 2001 125 140 25 10 78 78 2002 169 129 19 7 101 86 2003 129 108 10 4 80 60 2004 105 126 12 13 52 76 2005 116 143 15 17 67 74 2006 116 93 9 -1 73 38
Zito had a higher peak, but from 2003-2006, the two pitchers were essentially equal in value, Zito being about 24 runs better over that period. Buerhle is having a good year, with an ERA+ of 136 and a Stuff score of 15, so he would be hitting the market in better shape than Zito did (although a low win total may dampen some of that). The point is, the gap between the two pitchers isn’t three years and $76 million, so the White Sox could sign Buehrle for something close to the rumored amounts and end up way, way ahead on the deal.
Of course, past performance does not predict future results, and that’s where this potential signing makes me nervous. Those Stuff scores are not impressive, bouncing around “average,” and that’s largely because Buehrle doesn’t walk many hitters. His strikeout rate has always been marginal: 5.27 K/9 for his career, with a downward trend since 2004 that he’s only arrested this season by posting a 5.94 K/9, the second best mark of his career. Buehrle, like Zito, has thrown a lot of innings in his 20s without being dominant. The durability he’s shown has both positive and negative elements, and I would be even more concerned about his longevity given that he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. There is not much margin for error here, and any deterioration of his stuff, whether due to injury or age, could drop him below average in a hurry.
How concerned should we be? Well, Buehrle’s top two PECOTA comps are soft-tossing lefties who lasted forever, Jim Kaat and Jerry Reuss. After that, though, you find an awful lot of pitchers who peaked by 28, such as Jim Abbott and Greg Swindell. Bil Burke found 53 pitchers in our database (back to 1959) who threw at least 1300 innings by age 28 and struck out less than six men a game. Many of those had careers in an era in which fewer strikeouts were had by all pitchers, so I’ll just run the list:
IP K/9 RkYr Lary Sorensen 1589.7 2.86 1977 Doyle Alexander 1363.3 3.29 1971 Randy Jones 1343.3 3.42 1973 Ross Grimsley 1696.0 3.48 1971 Jim Slaton 1682.3 4.24 1971 Dennis Martinez 1446.7 4.42 1976 Mel Stottlemyre 1745.7 4.55 1964 Moose Haas 1380.3 4.71 1976 Scott Erickson 1310.3 4.73 1990 Jim Clancy 1419.0 4.74 1977 Dan Petry 1638.7 4.76 1979 Stan Bahnsen 1520.0 4.80 1966 Jon Garland 1324.7 4.82 2000 Jim Abbott 1560.3 4.83 1989 Richard Dotson 1506.3 4.89 1979 Larry Christenson 1354.3 4.90 1973 Dick Ellsworth 1903.7 4.93 1960 Bill Gullickson 1644.0 5.01 1979 Ken Brett 1321.0 5.02 1967 Jack Morris 1357.3 5.07 1977 Rick Wise 1821.7 5.08 1964 Blue Moon Odom 1314.7 5.09 1964 John Candelaria 1416.0 5.12 1975 Dave Stieb 1859.0 5.18 1979 Burt Hooton 1576.3 5.18 1971 Storm Davis 1431.0 5.23 1982 Mark Buehrle 1528.0 5.27 2000 Jerry Reuss 1726.3 5.29 1969 Nelson Briles 1301.3 5.31 1965 Tom Glavine 1522.3 5.34 1987 Tommy John 1607.7 5.39 1963 Steve Rogers 1390.0 5.42 1973 Sidney Ponson 1443.3 5.42 1998 Brad Radke 1537.7 5.51 1995 Dave McNally 1886.7 5.53 1962 Catfish Hunter 2456.3 5.57 1965 Tom Underwood 1369.7 5.57 1974 Gary Nolan 1617.0 5.60 1967 Ken Holtzman 2094.0 5.66 1965 Jim Palmer 1866.7 5.67 1965 Mark Mulder 1301.3 5.73 2000 Steve Avery 1442.7 5.76 1990 Mike Moore 1457.0 5.79 1982 Larry Dierker 2073.3 5.84 1964 Dennis Leonard 1316.7 5.86 1974 Mike Witt 1945.0 5.87 1981 Rick Reuschel 1352.7 5.87 1972 Steve Barber 1512.3 5.87 1960 Mark Gubicza 1540.3 5.90 1984 Ray Sadecki 1777.7 5.94 1960 Dennis Eckersley 1900.7 5.96 1975 Don Gullett 1380.3 5.96 1970 Mike Hampton 1463.7 5.99 1993
There are some reasons for optimism here. A couple of lines up from Buehrle you see Tom Glavine and Tommy John, in addition to Reuss. On the whole, though, this is a list of pitchers who weren’t very good in their thirties, or if they were, weren’t nearly as good as they’d been in their twenties. Strikeout rate is the best predictor of success, and Buehrle’s just isn’t very good. That makes signing him for four years a considerable risk, even at a discount from market rate. Were it my call, I’d deal him away to bolster the outfield and spend the money on a shortstop or outfielder this winter.
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