With news broken by ESPN Desportes on a Miguel Cabrera signing-a near-certainty once Cabrera came over to the Tigers-the question becomes one of value. Did the Tigers pay “too much” for Cabrera’s services? To lock up Cabrera through his age-33 season, the report is that he’ll get $153.3 million. PECOTA only takes things out seven years, but for that, it only rates him as “worth” $104.5 million. PECOTA surprisingly doesn’t have Cabrera in decline at age-32, so adding the same value as that season gets us to $136.3 million.
The $17 million gap actually seems reasonable, given the special nature of Cabrera’s early career and given the contract given to a much older Alex Rodriguez. (Rodriguez is heading into his age-32 season and is signed through his age-41 campaign with bonuses that will take it much higher, though it’s worth pointing out that Rodriguez’s next ten years are worth more than Bear Stearns’.) While there are certainly other factors at play in his contract, Rodriguez has a lower predicted value over the next seven years than Cabrera.
Cabrera had already signed a one-year deal worth $11.3 million with the Tigers, signed in order to avoid Cabrera’s second run at arbitration. Cabrera had won his first-year arbitration with a record $7.4 million decision against the Marlins. Early reports indicate that the deal is actually a seven-year extension, keeping Cabrera at the previously agreed-to $11.3 million, and adding seven years at an average of $19 million. Details will be forthcoming, but teams will be looking closely at the 2009 numbers, Cabrera’s last arb-eligible season, to see if it sets the market.
BP will have more on this as details become available.
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