In my ALCS preview, I made a provisional prediction of the series outcome, one that hinges on whom the Red Sox tab to start Game Four. Terry Francona has indicated a preference to start knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who was bombed in September and missed the ALDS following a cortisone shot in his shoulder. But Game One starter Josh Beckett could also start if willing to pitch on three days’ rest, something he did in shutting out the Yankees to clinch the 2003 World Series. If that’s the case, Beckett would then be available to pitch a potential Game Seven on normal rest. But if Wakefield goes, the Sox forego that third start from Beckett and are faced with a choice of Game Three starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, himself a human piñata since mid-August, for the rubber match, or of bringing back Wakefield, who would be on normal rest.
Neither of those choices is optimal, but the real problem with what I wrote was that I misidentified Cleveland’s potential Game Seven starter as Fausto Carmona. Carmona will start Game Two, and would then be in line to pitch Game Six, with Jake Westbrook slotting for a Game Seven. In other words, score that E-6. D’oh!
And Jaffe lets one go right through the wickets in front of a national audience. Looks like he just took his eye off the ball…
For consistency’s sake, I’ll stick with my pick of the Indians over the Red Sox under the Wakefield-4 scenario. But I’m decidedly less emphatic about that outcome than I would be if Carmona were going.
Update: let’s try this one more time, breaking my two scenarios down game-by-game:
Scenario 1: Beckett starts Game Four
Fr 10/12: Beckett/Sabathia - tossup
Sa 10/13: Schilling/Carmona - tossup
Mo 10/15: Matsuzaka/Westbrook - Indians edge
Tu 10/16: Beckett/Byrd Red Sox - Red Sox edge
Th 10/18: Schilling/Sabathia - tossup
Sa 10/20: Matsuzaka/Carmona - Indians edge
Su 10/21: Beckett/Westbrook - Red Sox edge
The first two games feature three of the league’s elite pitchers, plus Curt Schilling, whose numbers since remaking himself as a pitch-to-contact guy, not to mention his postseason resume, have me inclined to put him in their company for the short term. By my reckoning based on the data and in particular these pitchers’ recent trends, that’s two edges for each team, plus three tossups, two of them in Fenway. So I’ll call this for Boston, but in seven games, not the six I went by in my preview.
Scenario 2: Wakefield starts Game Four
Fr 10/12: Beckett/Sabathia - tossup
Sa 10/13: Schilling/Carmona - tossup
Mo 10/15: Matsuzaka/Westbrook - Indians edge
Tu 10/16: Wakefield/Byrd - Indians edge
Th 10/18: Beckett/Sabathia - tossup
Sa 10/20: Schilling/Carmona - tossup
Su 10/21: Matsuzaka/Westbrook - Indians edge
This time around, I’ve got three edges for the Indians, and four tossups, three in Fenway. Even if they break according to homefield advantage, that leaves Boston with the short end of the stick. Indians in seven games, though as I said, less emphatically than under my initial, erroneous, assumption.
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