This afternoon the Indians will send Fausto Carmona to the mound at Jacobs Field to try and grab a 2-0 lead against the Yankees in the ALDS. As most everyone knows by now Carmona throws three pitches - a mid 90s sinking fastball (a “turbo sinker” to use a term growing in popularity), a low 80s slider and a low 80s changeup all which can be illustrated using PITCHf/x data from ten of his starts in the second half.
Here we see his cluster of fastballs in pink (the colors representing the starting velocity), his changeups in aqua to the left of zero on the x-axis and his sliders in aqua to the right of zero on the x-axis. What makes his fastball - averaging 93.9 miles per hour - effective is that despite the positive values on the y-axis, the average vertical movement (relative to what would occur given the effects of gravity alone) is 5.5 inches whereas a typical fastball would be in the 9 to 11 inch range. In other words, his sinking fastball (which he throws 72% of the time) “sinks” about 5 inches more than a typical four-seamer. The pitch also has a significant amount of tailing action, averaging 8.3 inches whereas a typical four-seam fastball would be in the range of 3 to 5 inches. In the pantheon of sinker-ball pitchers this puts him right behind the second tier of pitchers such as Aaron Cook and Tim Hudson in terms of sinking action although he throws the pitch three to four miles per hour harder than almost everyone else - thus the “turbo sinker” label so many have used.
His slider (thrown 12% of the time) comes in at an average of 83 mph and with an average horizontal movement of 3 inches and a vertical movement of 1.1 inch, which are very typical for sliders from right-handed pitchers. Finally, his changeup (thrown 15% of the time) averages 83 mph as well tails 5.5 inches while sinking about 4 inches more than his sinking fastball.
“He won early (4-0 in May), late (5-0 in September) and in between (5-1 in July). He devastated hitters with a mid-90s sinkerball, but as the season progressed, he began to use his changeup and slider more effectively.”
Although “effectively” doesn’t necessarily mean “frequently”, this sounds similar to the reporting of Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon in late June. At that time Ocker reported that early in the season Carmona relied almost exclusively on his sinker and although he still felt good about the pitch at the time, he was intent on mixing his pitches more because, as Carmona himself said, “Sooner or later, the hitters are going to look for that pitch all the time.”
From looking at ten of his starts from the second half it would appear that Carmona did indeed initially use his other two pitches more frequently - in fact over 30% of the time in late July and early August with a heavier reliance on the changeup. After that point he reverted to using his fastball over 80% of the time in his final four starts as shown in the following graph.
Whether he lost a little confidence in the other pitches or simply discovered hitters weren’t catching on, the Yankees should be prepared for a heavy dose of the turbo sinker this afternoon.
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