It’s Hall of Fame day at Baseball Prospectus. In honor of Chipper Jones‘ 2000th hit, I thought I’d follow Jay’s lead by running his candidacy through the Keltner List gauntlet.
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
Probably. Chipper won the 1999 NL MVP Award, although his WARP (9.0) was not especially strong for an MVP winner, as it was sort of a transition year between the McGwire Era and the Bonds Era. And his WARP that season was eclipsed by a small handful of others, such as Ivan Rodriguez (10.0), who won the AL MVP, and Randy Johnson (10.3); Alex Rodriguez was hurt for part of that season, by the way. Nor was his WARP as high as a couple of pitchers (Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux) on his own team. Perhaps the best way to frame this is that Chipper was at one point thought of as being as good as any other position player in baseball, although for a relatively short period of time.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
Chipper led the Braves in WARP just once, in 2002, although he was close on several other occasions, and he was quite often the best hitter on the Braves, with Andruw Jones or one of the pitchers variously getting the nod because of their defensive value. But, seeing as how the Braves were a dynasty, I don’t know if this can really be held against him.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
Chipper has made 5 All-Star teams to date, all of which came when he was playing third base; ironically, he didn’t make the All-Star team in 1999, when he won the MVP. He was arguably the best third baseman in baseball between about 1997 and 2001, when Albert Pujols came along, although that wasn’t an especially strong era for his position.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Emphatically yes. Few players, past or present, and especially few non-Yankees, played a role in more pennant races.
5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?
Well, we will have to see, as this will ultimately determine the fate of his candidacy. With the exception of 2004, Chipper’s performance has never really suffered, but injuries have self-evidently taken their toll on his availability for the lineup. His PECOTA comps are a mixed bag, with players like Ken Caminiti and Bobby Bonilla on the one hand, and Eddie Murray and George Brett on the other.
6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
Clearly not; Ron Santo is more deserving just sticking with Chipper’s primary position, though Chipper could conceivably pass Santo if he finishes his career strongly.
7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Chipper’s top baseball-reference comps through Age 34 are generally Hall of Fame worthy. Four (Duke Snider, Billy Williams, Mike Schmidt, and Reggie Jackson) are eligible for the Hall of Fame and were elected; one (Dick Allen) is eligible for the Hall of Fame and was not elected, but might make it in someday. The other five are not yet eligible. Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas will almost certainly make it in. Rafael Palmeiro won’t, though for reasons unrelated to his numbers. Gary Sheffield probably will, though he might be a Veteran’s Committee selection, and Bernie Williams probably won’t, though he’ll get a few votes. But generally, this test comes down favorably for Chipper, though it assumes that he’ll play a few more decent seasons to pad his case.
I don’t think you’d find anyone who would argue that Chipper should make the Hall of Fame if he retired today — although three of his top b-ref comparables without regard to age did. Those players are Snider again, who played much better defense, Chuck Klein, who probably shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame, and Johnny Mize, who played most of his career in a more pitcher-friendly era.
8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
There are none of the slam-dunk markers for Hall of Fame induction — Chipper will most likely finish with 2500-2700 hits, and in the neighbrohood of 450 home runs, though 500 is not out of the question (and is considerably more likely than 3000 hits). But Chipper scores relatively favorably in both the Hall of Fame Standards and the Hall of Fame Monitor tests. The most impressive statistic on his resume is probably his adjusted OPS+, which ranks 57th All-Time.
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
His defense, as measured by Clay’s system and most other sabermetric metrics, has always been somewhere between lukewarm and downright poor, which chips away (no pun intended) at his candidacy.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
See answer to #6.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
He won the MVP in 1999, when there weren’t any other especially strong candidates, and finished fourth in 1996. If you look at his statistics and ask: “would a player with these numbers usually win the MVP?”, 1999 is really the only season in which you can answer that question affirmatively, and even that is highly debatable. One minor quibble, if you’re looking just at the things that BBWAA types tend to look at, is that he’s never surpassed 111 RBIs in a season. Chipper has always been good, sometimes great, but he’s rarely or never been dominant.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?
Five All-Star appearances and probably deserving of about that many. He didn’t make the team in 1999 when he probably should have, and did make the team in 1997 when he probably shouldn’t have. Five All-Star apperances is far from a slam dunk; there are lots of players who made more All-Star teams and haven’t sniffed the Hall.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
For sure.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Wikipedia points out that he’s the only switch-hitter in baseball history with a .300 or better batting average and 300 or more home runs; Mickey Mantle ended his career as a .298 hitter. But, his brownie points more rest on the fact that he was one of the best players on one of the most important dynasties of All-Time. I think it’s safe to say that, if Chipper hadn’t been on the Braves, they wouldn’t have strung all those titles together (though they’d certainly have won some), and they wouldn’t have quite the same legacy.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
Well, he knocked up that Hooters waitress, and he named one of his male heirs “Tristen”. Take those sins for what they’re worth.
Summary
Chipper has basically two ways he can make it into the Hall. First, he can stay relatively healthy and productive through age 38 or 40, in which case his candidacy becomes a slam dunk. Secondly, he can flame out a bit earlier, probably finishing with about 400 career home runs (and 100 WARP), and still find plenty of people that will take up his case.
In fact, one concept here is that Chipper is probably further along in his BBWAA case for the Hall than his stathead case. For one thing, the writers will probably not penalize him enough for his defense, and for another, I suspect that the Schuerholz Braves are one of those feel-good stories that the voters are likely to latch on to as they sort through the steroids-era candidates. “Larry Jones. There’s a good ‘ol boy who didn’t get messed up in that PED stuff. There’s a boy who played for a lot of Winners. I’m-a checking that box. Larry Jones. Good people”. All right, maybe I should lay off the coffee.
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