I know he didn’t play last night, and that I normally don’t do updates on consecutive days, but by special request we’ve got another entry today. I notice that almost half of his chances - covering the cases from 12.3 to 60.6 percent chance on the cumulative scale - comes in a 16-game stretch, July 3-22, where 13 of the games are on the road. The single most likely venue right now? Still at home, but away from home it is Wrigley.
I hadn’t considered before the fact that I may need to modify the program if Bonds goes on the DL in real life; that would look pretty embarrassing if I said he had a 5% of hitting his 756th while on the DL. Hasn’t happened yet, but I’ll address it when needed.
Day Cumulative
160 Jun 9 2 2 OAK
161 Jun 10 2 4 OAK
162 Jun 11 4 8 TOR
163 Jun 12 23 31 TOR
164 Jun 13 74 105 TOR
166 Jun 15 166 271 @BOS
167 Jun 16 337 608 @BOS
168 Jun 17 728 1336 @BOS
169 Jun 18 1161 2497 @MIL
170 Jun 19 1972 4469 @MIL
171 Jun 20 2910 7379 @MIL
173 Jun 22 4386 11765 NYY
174 Jun 23 5761 17526 NYY
175 Jun 24 7817 25343 NYY
176 Jun 25 9842 35185 SD
177 Jun 26 12230 47415 SD
178 Jun 27 14822 62237 SD
180 Jun 29 17425 79662 ARI
181 Jun 30 20253 99915 ARI
182 Jul 1 22712 122627 ARI
184 Jul 3 25126 147753 @CIN
185 Jul 4 27351 175104 @CIN
186 Jul 5 28808 203912 @CIN
187 Jul 6 30637 234549 @STL
188 Jul 7 31445 265994 @STL
189 Jul 8 32884 298878 @STL
194 Jul 13 33197 332075 LAD
195 Jul 14 33385 365460 LAD
196 Jul 15 33326 398786 LAD
197 Jul 16 32812 431598 @CHC
198 Jul 17 31681 463279 @CHC
199 Jul 18 30816 494095 @CHC
200 Jul 19 30311 524406 @CHC
201 Jul 20 28491 552897 @MIL
202 Jul 21 27195 580092 @MIL
203 Jul 22 26025 606117 @MIL
204 Jul 23 24469 630586 ATL
205 Jul 24 22822 653408 ATL
206 Jul 25 21332 674740 ATL
207 Jul 26 19608 694348 ATL
208 Jul 27 18136 712484 FLA
209 Jul 28 16777 729261 FLA
210 Jul 29 15021 744282 FLA
212 Jul 31 13820 758102 @LAD
213 Aug 1 12880 770982 @LAD
214 Aug 2 11681 782663 @LAD
215 Aug 3 10442 793105 @SD
216 Aug 4 9619 802724 @SD
217 Aug 5 8651 811375 @SD
218 Aug 6 7884 819259 WAS
219 Aug 7 6969 826228 WAS
220 Aug 8 6362 832590 WAS
221 Aug 9 5800 838390 WAS
222 Aug 10 5106 843496 PIT
223 Aug 11 4645 848141 PIT
224 Aug 12 4280 852421 PIT
225 Aug 13 3745 856166 @PIT
226 Aug 14 3445 859611 @ATL
227 Aug 15 3214 862825 @ATL
228 Aug 16 2774 865599 @ATL
229 Aug 17 2642 868241 @FLA
230 Aug 18 2344 870585 @FLA
231 Aug 19 2184 872769 @FLA
232 Aug 20 2052 874821 @FLA
233 Aug 21 1926 876747 CHC
234 Aug 22 1753 878500 CHC
235 Aug 23 1637 880137 CHC
236 Aug 24 1582 881719 MIL
237 Aug 25 1502 883221 MIL
238 Aug 26 1407 884628 MIL
239 Aug 27 1392 886020 COL
240 Aug 28 1267 887287 COL
241 Aug 29 1178 888465 COL
243 Aug 31 1208 889673 @WAS
244 Sep 1 1196 890869 @WAS
245 Sep 2 1135 892004 @WAS
246 Sep 3 1095 893099 @COL
247 Sep 4 1061 894160 @COL
248 Sep 5 1078 895238 @COL
250 Sep 7 1029 896267 LAD
251 Sep 8 934 897201 LAD
252 Sep 9 1051 898252 LAD
253 Sep 10 908 899160 ARI
254 Sep 11 924 900084 ARI
255 Sep 12 862 900946 ARI
257 Sep 14 987 901933 @SD
258 Sep 15 904 902837 @SD
259 Sep 16 906 903743 @SD
260 Sep 17 888 904631 @ARI
261 Sep 18 863 905494 @ARI
262 Sep 19 887 906381 @ARI
263 Sep 20 878 907259 CIN
264 Sep 21 822 908081 CIN
265 Sep 22 869 908950 CIN
266 Sep 23 785 909735 CIN
267 Sep 24 871 910606 SD
268 Sep 25 862 911468 SD
269 Sep 26 810 912278 SD
271 Sep 28 784 913062 @LAD
272 Sep 29 785 913847 @LAD
273 Sep 30 769 914616 @LAD
Not this year 85384
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