Every day without a home run basically pushes the entire set backwards at least a day - I’m not sure how far it will advance when he does hit one because it hasn’t happened yet and I haven’t gotten curious enough to run it on faked data.
50% likelihood is now June 24. “Not this year” crosses 7% for the first time.
See my original post, http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6219 for more detail.
Clay
Through games of 5/16. The number of times he hit #756 on a particular day, and the cumulative total.
142 May 22 2 2
143 May 23 14 16
145 May 25 37 53
146 May 26 86 139
147 May 27 229 368
149 May 29 470 838
150 May 30 860 1698
151 May 31 1376 3074
152 Jun 1 2369 5443
153 Jun 2 3478 8921
154 Jun 3 5106 14027
155 Jun 4 7037 21064
156 Jun 5 9060 30124
157 Jun 6 11586 41710
158 Jun 7 14258 55968
159 Jun 8 17416 73384
160 Jun 9 20172 93556
161 Jun 10 22822 116378
162 Jun 11 25386 141764
163 Jun 12 28251 170015
164 Jun 13 30416 200431
166 Jun 15 32293 232724
167 Jun 16 33626 266350
168 Jun 17 34107 300457
169 Jun 18 35310 335767
170 Jun 19 35625 371392
171 Jun 20 35184 406576
173 Jun 22 34311 440887
174 Jun 23 33738 474625
175 Jun 24 32356 506981 **************
176 Jun 25 31265 538246
177 Jun 26 29638 567884
178 Jun 27 28322 596206
180 Jun 29 26436 622642
181 Jun 30 24604 647246
182 Jul 1 22964 670210
184 Jul 3 21001 691211
185 Jul 4 19609 710820
186 Jul 5 17808 728628
187 Jul 6 16368 744996
188 Jul 7 14779 759775
189 Jul 8 13564 773339
194 Jul 13 11978 785317
195 Jul 14 10813 796130
196 Jul 15 9928 806058
197 Jul 16 8833 814891
198 Jul 17 7839 822730
199 Jul 18 7040 829770
200 Jul 19 6379 836149
201 Jul 20 5704 841853
202 Jul 21 5097 846950
203 Jul 22 4473 851423
204 Jul 23 3961 855384
205 Jul 24 3600 858984
206 Jul 25 3379 862363
207 Jul 26 3014 865377
208 Jul 27 2691 868068
209 Jul 28 2503 870571
210 Jul 29 2264 872835
212 Jul 31 2019 874854
213 Aug 1 1912 876766
214 Aug 2 1784 878550
215 Aug 3 1711 880261
216 Aug 4 1567 881828
217 Aug 5 1461 883289
218 Aug 6 1406 884695
219 Aug 7 1249 885944
220 Aug 8 1292 887236
221 Aug 9 1237 888473
222 Aug 10 1210 889683
223 Aug 11 1182 890865
224 Aug 12 1158 892023
225 Aug 13 1104 893127
226 Aug 14 1047 894174
227 Aug 15 1017 895191
228 Aug 16 995 896186
229 Aug 17 995 897181
230 Aug 18 922 898103
231 Aug 19 916 899019
232 Aug 20 1011 900030
233 Aug 21 869 900899
234 Aug 22 887 901786
235 Aug 23 924 902710
236 Aug 24 818 903528
237 Aug 25 918 904446
238 Aug 26 903 905349
239 Aug 27 908 906257
240 Aug 28 893 907150
241 Aug 29 899 908049
243 Aug 31 836 908885
244 Sep 1 837 909722
245 Sep 2 836 910558
246 Sep 3 781 911339
247 Sep 4 802 912141
248 Sep 5 797 912938
250 Sep 7 800 913738
251 Sep 8 741 914479
252 Sep 9 807 915286
253 Sep 10 788 916074
254 Sep 11 789 916863
255 Sep 12 776 917639
257 Sep 14 820 918459
258 Sep 15 711 919170
259 Sep 16 676 919846
260 Sep 17 720 920566
261 Sep 18 703 921269
262 Sep 19 690 921959
263 Sep 20 678 922637
264 Sep 21 719 923356
265 Sep 22 694 924050
266 Sep 23 712 924762
267 Sep 24 673 925435
268 Sep 25 672 926107
269 Sep 26 712 926819
271 Sep 28 647 927466
272 Sep 29 675 928141
273 Sep 30 594 928735
Not this year 71265
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