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April 25, 2007, 02:42 PM ET
A-Rod’s Hot Start

by Jay Jaffe

Welcome to the Internet, your 24-hour, all-Alex Rodriguez news source. With A-Rod off to an incredibly hot start — 14 homers in his first 18 games — articles about the Yankee third baseman are everywhere these days. Beyond the perfunctory “I’m staying a Yankee” puff, some of it’s actually worthwhile. Earlier this week, The New York Times‘ Tyler Kepner had an excellent piece discussing how Rodriguez has changed his approach at the plate with the encouragement of new Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long. He’s swinging at the first pitch more often, concentrating on the opposite field, focusing on keeping his head stationary, and thus more able to lay off the high cheese in favor of pitches further down in the strike zone. SI.com’s John Donovan compared Rodriguez’s April to some other legendary one-month tears (but where’s Pedro Guerrero June 1985?). Yesterday at BP, Joe Sheehan took a look at Rodriguez’s shot at racking up 200 RBI yesterday.

Today my own piece about A-Rod’s blistering home-run pace is in The New York Sun. Given that the date of Opening Day has crept from mid-April back to early April over the past half century, I decided to base my frame of reference not on the hottest Aprils per se, but on the number of games Rodriguez’s Yankees will play by the end of this month, 24. Beyond examining the company A-Rod’s keeping these days, what I found was that a hot start isn’t a necessary precondition for a high home run total. Of the 52 hitters who managed at least 10 home runs in their team’s first 24 games, only six went on to top 50 homers for the year: Barry Bonds (2001), Mark McGwire (1998), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Ken Griffey, Jr. (1997), Brady Anderson (1996) and Willie Mays (1965). Looking at it another way, only six of the 26 seasons since 1957 in which a player hit 50 or more homers began with such a binge (Roger Maris managed only three in 1961). Meanwhile, eight of the top 12 all-time home run leaders are represented here at least once, suggesting that for the great ones, such a flurry is a rite of passage. Without further ado except to note that the top seven players here are in the graphic that was omitted online:

-                       -----First 24 Games-----    ------Rest of Year------
Player                  PA  HR   AVG   OBP   SLG    PA  HR   AVG   OBP   SLG
Alex Rodriguez, 2007    90  14  .385  .444 1.013
Albert Pujols, 2006    105  14  .350  .495  .925   529  35  .327  .418  .626
Luis Gonzalez, 2001    105  13  .307  .419  .784   623  44  .328  .430  .672
Ken Griffey Jr., 1997  105  13  .360  .448  .876   599  43  .295  .371  .607
Willie Mays, 1964       99  13  .468  .485  .968   566  34  .262  .365  .537
Mike Schmidt, 1976     111  13  .269  .378  .720   594  25  .261  .376  .487
Mark McGwire, 1992     107  12  .349  .486  .855   464  30  .250  .362  .526
Barry Bonds, 2001       91  11  .240  .363  .747   573  62  .344  .539  .885
Brady Anderson, 1996   114  11  .341  .446  .780   573  39  .289  .387  .611
Larry Walker, 1997     106  11  .456  .538  .911   558  38  .349  .435  .684
Barry Bonds, 2000      104  11  .313  .452  .747   503  38  .305  .437  .675
Willie Stargell, 1971   92  11  .354  .402  .793   514  37  .284  .397  .597
Eddie Mathews, 1959    117  11  .302  .368  .679   528  34  .319  .406  .598
Hank Aaron, 1971        92  11  .269  .380  .744   454  34  .335  .416  .655
Matt Williams, 1994    104  11  .290  .346  .699   379  32  .261  .311  .582
Gary Sheffield, 1996   100  11  .288  .430  .750   577  31  .319  .471  .601
Mo Vaughn, 1995        114  11  .284  .395  .663   522  28  .303  .387  .556
Larry Walker, 2001     101  11  .375  .446  .852   500  27  .345  .450  .621
Jermaine Dye, 2000     107  11  .394  .467  .862   572  22  .308  .376  .505
Kirby Puckett, 1986    112  11  .390  .429  .790   611  20  .317  .355  .490
Pete Incaviglia, 1987  103  11  .330  .408  .703   460  16  .258  .315  .452
Graig Nettles, 1974     98  11  .299  .357  .701   540  11  .236  .308  .349
Jonny Gomes, 2006      102  11  .316  .461  .759   359   9  .190  .287  .346
Mark McGwire, 1998     103  10  .321  .476  .782   578  60  .295  .469  .747
Willie Mays, 1965      104  10  .344  .388  .740   534  42  .312  .400  .626
Barry Bonds, 2004       92  10  .472  .696 1.132   525  35  .344  .594  .759
Lance Berkman, 2006    109  10  .348  .413  .728   537  35  .309  .421  .599
Willie Stargell, 1973   95  10  .337  .421  .735   514  34  .292  .387  .629
Gary Sheffield, 2000   100  10  .349  .460  .795   512  33  .321  .434  .612
Billy Williams, 1970   103  10  .250  .291  .573   611  32  .335  .408  .589
Lance Berkman, 2002    107  10  .267  .374  .622   585  32  .297  .410  .570
Jim Thome, 2006        105  10  .300  .457  .713   505  32  .285  .408  .576
Tony Perez, 1970       104  10  .429  .538  .810   577  30  .298  .376  .553
Fred Lynn, 1979        109  10  .292  .413  .652   513  29  .342  .425  .633
Mark McGwire, 1995     107  10  .329  .467  .780   315  29  .255  .432  .651
Carlos Delgado, 2001   111  10  .291  .477  .709   593  29  .277  .395  .513
Jeff Bagwell, 2003     111  10  .337  .414  .694   591  29  .266  .365  .491
Dave Kingman, 1976     106  10  .230  .274  .570   404  27  .241  .290  .489
Dale Murphy, 1985      105  10  .370  .438  .783   607  27  .288  .379  .496
Dave Kingman, 1984      84  10  .244  .298  .641   529  25  .272  .325  .482
Nick Swisher, 2006      94  10  .313  .404  .738   578  25  .244  .366  .452
Jose Canseco, 1999     100  10  .267  .360  .663   402  24  .282  .371  .538
Frank Robinson, 1969   105  10  .352  .438  .758   538  22  .299  .411  .496
Al Kaline, 1962        110  10  .364  .427  .747   342  19  .284  .359  .542
Reggie Jackson, 1974   105  10  .382  .448  .798   499  19  .269  .379  .453
Andres Galarraga, 2000  92  10  .293  .370  .683   456  18  .303  .368  .495
George Scott, 1966     105  10  .355  .419  .774   576  17  .224  .307  .370
Dante Bichette, 1994   109  10  .343  .394  .727   400  17  .294  .318  .501
Gary Sheffield, 1994   102  10  .317  .441  .768   282  17  .263  .358  .521
Matt Williams, 1995     99  10  .364  .424  .761   219  13  .323  .388  .595
Chris Shelton, 2006    100  10  .337  .410  .809   312   6  .254  .317  .359
Ellis Burks, 1994       94  10  .429  .489  .952    71   3  .185  .254  .323

Thanks to Keith Woolner and Jason Paré for mining the data.

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