The whole world of baseball is a bit on edge, waiting for Tuesday. While most fans wait on pitchers and catchers, people inside baseball (and the kind of obsessives here at BP) are waiting to see “the number.” What will Tim Lincecum and his representatives ask for in arbitration? Speculation has been rampant, ranging from $8m to $22m.
So why not have fun with it? I declare the Lincecum Lottery open. In comments, guess the correct dollar figure* and we’ll give you a BP gift subscription to give to the person of your choosing. Good luck and get to guessing! If you’d like, add in how you came to the number.
* The tiebreaker will be whoever submitted the correct number first. Please submit only one number per username.
$25M market value x 40% for first arb year = $10M. Don't see Lincecum asking for anything blatantly crazy and making the Giants' number look like the reasonable one.
19.9 million - under 20 to appear closer to the team number than reality. Also realistic given the agents ability to use any free agent as a comparable. Bonus guess of the giants coming in at 15 million, for mostly the same reasons.
I'd be a little surprised; I think there was an article a few years ago about how Boras had hired economists to do marginal revenue analysis of his players, etc. That article led me to believe that the serious agents keep it in house.
17.5, on the theory that round numbers and 5s and 10s are popular focal points and the belief that he'll ask for more than 15 but less than 20 (the two most obvious focal points.)
Since the arbitration panel must "consider the salaries of all comparable players and not merely the salary of a single player or group of players"(CBA F-13), I believe the panel will look more at service time because of the lack of comparable players in this case. I believe Lincecum's agent knows that and will submit accordingly. $15-20 million is just absurd, he would never get that.
8 million. I figure they're afraid the Giants will try to squeeze a low number in as "mote reasonable", so they'll take a sure thing here and try for the jackpot next time, also all the good numbers were taken.
I'm going to guess $18 million, since I think that would be a good number to sell.
That is the annual amount Barry Zito is being paid by the Giants. Barry joined the Giants at virtually the same time as Tim. Tim's has won twice as many Cy Young Awards as Barry has, his career ERA is over half a run lower than Barry's was when the Giants signed Zito for $18 million, Tim's ERA the past three seasons is more than a full run less than Barry's had been the three seasons leading up to his huge contract, and Tim's ERA the past three seasons has been more than a run and a quarter less than Barry's over the same three-year period.
In an arbitration hearing I would submit that the Giants themselves have established Tim's minimum value at $18 million.
Unless Tim's submitted amount is over the top, I don't think the situation will go to a hearing, even if a long-term contract can't be worked out. Brian Sabean has scrupulously avoided taking arbitrations all the way to a hearing, especially with players he wants to keep.
Sabean himself said at the end of the season that there wasn't really much the Giants could say against Lincecum and that that the two sides would see what made sense after the numbers came in.
And that was BEFORE Tim won his second Cy Young Award.
Lincecum proposes $19 million, the Giants counters with $13-$14 mil, but they settle before an arbitration *decision* for two or three years at just over $17 million/season. Public relations win for everyone.
Rational: He'll want money in line with being one of the four or five best pitchers in the game but acknowledge San Fran cannot afford his real worth. Another Cy Young season or two with the Giants has teams willing to sign him to $25 million a year for a half decade come the 2012 hot stove league.
I'll add one other point: Lincecum's goal isn't to have the largest ever arbitration decision. It isn't even to make the most money he can in 2010. It's to position himself to make the most money over his career. Increasing the base from which future contracts will be built is a start, but so too is some medium term security. I think he goes "high" (in the mid-teens) to force San Francisco's hand in signing him to a two or three year deal. I cannot imagine the Giants offering anything less than $10 million.
$13,825,000. I figure if he and his crew go much higher than that, the board [or panel, whatever you prefer], will then go low. Which, if he continues to pitch as he has, without a blowout, he can make up in ensuing years. But he and his crew need to ensure that he gets some monies, in the event of a blow-out of his arm..and if he's locked in for the one year at that price, if he can't pitch any further, then he wouldn't have to.
Lincecum is only a Super-Two player, so he will be arb. eligible through 2013. Can't imagine what his award might be then if he continues to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher.
It would certainly come up in the comps. Probably doesn't affect their logic/reasoning for whatever their number will be. I'm still guessing it'll be around $18m based on the various contracts out there, including Zito's.
haha i'm so glad some one did this. though i'm not surprised it came out a bit high, since once all the lower numbers were taken, for most people there was no where to go but up.
Even Peter Gammons has come to recognize the revenue gap that exists in baseball which paralyzes small market teams. But not BP.
I wonder how the Pirates would react to having to pay a player $10+ million? Do they give away fewer bobbleheads? Have fewer fireworks nights? Hmmm....
"I'd like to think that baseball realizes it needs to find a way to ensure that not only can Mauer, Gonzalez, Zack Greinke and Sizemore play where they belong for what they deserve, but that in 2018, Stanton and Strasburg can be the faces of the Marlins and Nationals, not further chapters in the Hundred-Year War between the Yankees and Red Sox."
The most interesting facet to me is the Giants offer of $8 million. If the Giants submit $10 million, they could play the "Ryan Howard won ROY and MVP awards, and he only got $10 million" card. I can't help but feel that Sabean made a mistake with his number. If I were Lincecum, I'd let it go to the panel unless the Giants came up to at least $11.5.
If the Giants think that way (he "should" get 10.0) and they don't care about hurting anyone's feelings, then 8.0 was the perfect offer from them.
The arbitrator can only choose one of the two numbers (8.0 or 13.0) and the mid-point of the two submissions is 10.5 million. My understanding is that the judge basically decides if the player should get more or less than the mid-point. If he thinks that Lincecum should get 10.0 million, he must choose the team's offer since 10.0 is below the mid-point.
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Random guess... 16.8 million
11.5