If today’s three-team blockbuster between the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Yankees is confirmed, a pair of very live arms are Motown bound. Max Scherzer, a 25-year-old right-hander, was taken by Arizona as the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft. Daniel Schlereth, a 23-year-old left-hander, was the 26th overall pick in 2008. Each possesses a high ceiling, and few people have a better understanding of their potential than D-Backs manager A.J. Hinch, who served as the organization’s Director of Player Development prior to this past May. Hinch wasn’t willing to discuss the rumored deal when he met with the media earlier this afternoon, but he was willing to weigh in on the development of the two young pitchers.
Hinch Max Scherzer: “Max’s progression is…he’s good. Starting off in the bullpen, when he first got to the big leagues, and getting through that year — then, this past year, he got up to 170 innings, and for a young starter, that was a nice leap for him. We had tried really hard to get him to his innings total. The year before, we sent him to the Arizona Fall League to increase his innings total. So, he went from somewhere in the 130s to 170 last year, and had a very good year. If you toss out a start or two that imploded on him, he was a bonafide guy for us. We like him. He’s a guy that has room to grow, and he took some steps forward this year.”
Hinch on what Scherzer needs to do to take that next step: “I think he’s always worked on a third pitch; he’s always worked on incorporating secondary stuff and being able to utilize that as a full, three-or-four-times-through-the-order starter. Being able to pitch deeper into games is important for him as a next step, and we think he’s going to do that. He’s a hard worker who has some competitiveness to him. He’s a good, young starting pitcher in the big leagues.”
Hinch on Daniel Schlereth: “Schlereth has had a pretty rapid rise through the minors. He’s got some plus stuff that he’s shown in flashes when he got his big league opportunity. He didn’t have a ton of experience through the minor leagues, but in the short time we saw him in the big leagues, he was effective at times. He also struggled at times, which was really based on command. Obviously, as a power-pitching lefty, you usually get quite a few command issues at times, but you also get some strikeouts and swings and misses. There’s a lot to like there.”
Let's not forget that Scherzer is pretty bright, has shown an interest in applied sabrmetrics, and we could have a high ceiling guy who is also stat savvy. Imagine McCarver interviewing a player talking about BABIP or luck -- think his head would explode?
I have to agree with Chris Perry. This trade wasn't about filling a positional need or cashing in on a potential free agent. The ages are about the same - Diamondbacks are getting two years older in total age - so it's not about getting younger. The D-Backs is saying he expects Jackson and Kennedy to outperform Scherzer and Schlereth. If I can call Schlereth and Kennedy a wash - young players with good potential who haven't done anything in the big leagues yet, even ignoring Schlereth's lefthandedness - that leaves Jackson vs. Scherzer. I'd like to see what the scouts say about those two because most of the standard peripheral metrics are favoring Scherzer. Not knowing the contract situation of either, I also have to assume Scherzer would be under the club's control for longer therefore cheaper since he's only entering his third year and Jackson debuted in 2003. Can't believe Jackson is only entering his age-26 year.
I do have to wonder if one factor is Hinch is looking for easier names to say and spell for his lineup card.
The only way I can understand this from the D-Backs point of view is if they are pretty certain that Scherzer's arm isn't going to hold up, and they just wanted someone that will pitch every fifth day, even if the results aren't as good.
What is all this whining about the D-Backs? As a Tigers fan, only we have the right to whine over this.
Why is everybody so sure that Scherzer, who has just worked his way up to 170 innings and a 4.12 ERA is better than Jackson who pitched 214 innings with a 3.62 ERA? There is no significant difference in their park factors. You all must be mightily confident in their peripherals, which happen to be quite close. Scherzer has a 2.76 K/W and 1.05 GB/FB while Jackson has a 2.30 K/W and a 0.92 GB/FB. Then consider that Jackson was pitching in the superior league.
And, don't tell me this borderline major league lefty reliever Schlereth is a big sacrifice to get Ian Kennedy. Both were heavily hyped for their minor league performances which have yet to blossom into quality major league performance.
Yet, as a Tigers faithful, I am optimistic these new pitchers will work out better than Edwin Jackson from this point forward. However, I strongly doubt Austin Jackson will ever be a Curtis Granderson. This trade was sadly about saving Detroit's pennies.
Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts. Given the choice between two pitchers with relatively low experience, give me the guy that misses bats and is cheaper to boot.
The Tigers win this trade 10 times over by shedding Granderson's contract, obtaining a 5-star outfield prospect, and improving their rotation and bullpen by adding two younger cheaper flamethrowers.
There's also significant evidence that Jackson's ERA last season was smoke and mirrors. His ERA from 2003 to 2008 (FIVE YEARS) was 5.15, and in 2009, his ERA jumped from 2.52 to 5.07 after the all-star break.
If Tiger fans are truly complaining about this trade, it's because they're teary-eyed over losing Granderson, not because it's a bad trade for the Tigers.
Austin Jackson: five star prospect? That was last year and it was probably 4 1/2. Though he made a huge leap in 2007, he hasn't progressed since (offensively, at least). Those were his age 21 and 22 seasons - years in which he should have taken big steps. He produced a .759 O+S last year with a .390 BA/BiP. I hate to think how thoroughly he will be devoured by American League pitchers and defenses unless he figures out a way to greatly improve himself.
my first impression was: why would the d-backs make a trade like this without obtaining a bat in return? i don't follow them closely, but weren't they one of the worst offensive clubs in baseball last year? seems like if they are going to trade two young, promising arms, they should be looking for a bat in return. after upton, who is a threat in that lineup? too bad they gave up on quentin...
Granderson may not be a great hitter but he is worth several wins a season by any measure and that has value. Maybe you can get the first win or two that Granderson provides much more cheaply, but what does it cost to get the third or fourth?
Given that the Tigers have nothing with which to replace Granderon's production and 3.4 wins or so from 2008, I'm not totally sure what the cost savings gets them on the field. I wouldn't make a virtue out of shedding contracts just because they are high.
Cutting Jackson's contract and replacing him with Scherzer has some risks, but makes sense. Cutting Granderson's contract just to save money makes no sense. There is relatively little chance that Coke+Kennedy+Schlereth will overcome the loss of Granderson in the win column.
$13.75MM for two years of Granderson was not overpriced, no matter what the PR flacks have convinced the fans of. Even if it was, Granderson in 2010 for $5.5MM is downright affordable. And if you're assuming that he's going to start declining as soon as next year, then why sign him to such a big contract in the first place?
Granderson wasn't overpriced, but he was definitely the Tigers' most tradeable asset. Their others were either too expensive (Cabrera) or not living up to their contracts (Bonderman, Granderson, Guillen, etc). So they got 4 GOOD young players for their two most tradeable assets, and next season when some those other guys come off the books, they will have bocoup bucks to spend on free agents.
Austin Jackson won't replace Granderson, but if you can play Jackson in CF and he's above average, and you're leveraged to use the young talent obtained here to sign a couple good FA's in December 2010, the Tigers are right back where they want to be, and better off than they are now.
So in both E Jackson and Granderson's case it SEEMS to be more about maximizing a player's trade value than it is about payroll or making the team better in 2010.
By the way, Kennedy went to the Dbacks, not to the Tigers.
Granderson actually has a very good contract which is one of the things which made him attractive to other teams. He had an off year but I think the Tigers sold low and will regret it. As a Tigers fan, I don't think the Tigers got enough in this deal. I like Scherzer if he stays healthy. I think A. Jackson is the key to the deal for the Tigers. Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic about him as others are. I'm not especially excited about the two relievers (although Coke might get a shot at starting)
I also don't see the need to shed two modest salaries when they have a bunch of bad ones coming off the books next year.
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Let's not forget that Scherzer is pretty bright, has shown an interest in applied sabrmetrics, and we could have a high ceiling guy who is also stat savvy. Imagine McCarver interviewing a player talking about BABIP or luck -- think his head would explode?
Travis Leleu wrote:
"Imagine McCarver interviewing a player talking about BABIP or luck -- think his head would explode?"
We could hope!!