Here’s the fun thing about subsets of data and arbitrary cutoff points: Things happen that might seem a little weird. For example, this is what the National League West looks like since July 28:
Goofy, right? But totally arbitrary… like when Ibanez was hitting .357/.425/.714 in the middle of May. He continued on his rampage for a couple more weeks before crashing hard.
Since we’re on an arbitrary kick, let’s split Ibanez’s season into two parts, with June 2 as the dividing line:
That’s a remarkable turnaround, and not in a good way. Pretty much his entire game fell apart at the same time.
And yet, thanks to that hot start, Ibanez could afford to tank for 300 plate appearances and still come out looking like himself. Aside from the minor power surge and deteriorating plate discipline this year, can you tell the difference between his most recent four seasons?
He played over his head for 50 games and then regressed to the Ibanez. It happens. Just because he was one of the best hitters in baseball for a third of the season doesn’t mean he’s one of the best hitters in baseball, period.
And that is why the Padres aren’t in the playoff hunt right now. Or something…
So does the .432 BB/SO. He's different this year. He's just not better. More Ks, More HRs, Fewer nonHR hits, a few more BBs. 07 and 08 are practically identical though
There is a difference in 09 than the other years. He may not be better but the difference is ballpark factors. I just wonder when he's going to start to deteriorate because of age. Perhaps it has already started?
"As most statistical analysis proves, flukes have a way of evening out. "
I don't think so... I don't start betting that the next coin I flip will land on "tails" just because the previous 10 times I flipped I got a "heads".
I am curious to know Raul's explanation (or maybe his hitting coach) to this data. It is easy to call his first half a fluke and wave it away, but there could be other explanations. Maybe having huge success in his first month + hitting in Philadelphia encouraged bad habits (as evidenced by the deteriorating plate discipline)? I am not saying Ibanez is Pujols or anything like that, but maybe with the right hitting approach in the right stadium, he could be very productive hitter. Or, it was just a fluke...
Raul went to the DL on June 18th with a groin strain and remained there until July 10th. There's nothing arbitrary about a trip to the DL and a slow return.
Up to June 18th: 280 PA, 22 HR, .312/.371/.656/1.027
Return to Sept 6: 186 PA, 5 HR, .217/.301/.386/.687
I'm as familiar with reversion to the mean as anybody, but I'm not sure why this post doesn't mention his 3 week trip to the DL. It seems to belie the animus behind the post. Ostrow, if his pace continues this month at his pre-DL numbers, I'd lean less towards a reversion argument and more towards a health one. As the first few responses indicate, there's plently under the numbers to indicate more than a fluke. The switch from the AL to the NL, and a much friendlier park, aside.
To undermine my own point, however, Ibanez was actually successful in his initial return
June 11 - Jul 29: 62 PA, 4 HR, .286/.355/.589/.944
It was his month of Aug+ that was awful
Jul 30 to Sept 5: 120 PA, 1 HR, .170/.267/.274/.540
In any case, it seems more helpful to point out both his trip to the DL and the look at smaller ranges of data. Ibanez hasn't been sliding ever since early June.
Reminds me of T-bone Shelby on the '88 Dodgers. He was on fire for a few weeks, including a 20+ game hitting streak. After the ASB, not so much. At least his fielding was good.
I seem to remember reading somewhere that this is pretty standard for Ibanez - That when he's hot, he's REALLY hot, and when he's cold, he's frigid. It's just that he started the year with one of those hot streaks, instead of hitting it in the middle of the season. Unfortunately, I don't have time to do the research to back this up.
Sorry to be the bear in the room but as I recall, Joe wrote that article in response to a blogger suggesting PED's might be a factor. Joe also thought Ibanez would keep up the pace.
When Raul Ibanez went on the DL, my despondent friend told me his fantasy season was over. I said if he had been counting on Ibanez to hit .340 with 50 HR and 150 RBI over a full season, his fantasy season was over before it had begun.
Same friend is the namesake of what I call The Hoppe Effect. One day after he'd had a good softball game, he said something to the effect of, "I'm hitting .450 but if I had gone 3-for-3 in this game instead of 0-for-3 and 4-for-4 in that game instead of 1-for-4, I'd be hitting .800." I said, "Just think, if you hadn't made any outs at all, you'd be hitting 1.000."
Does he likely have a benefit playing in CBP? Sure, he'd probably have hit less HRs somewhere else. But it certainly isn't home Holliday inflating and is actually dragging his numbers down.
Yes, we discussed this point at Phillies Nation and the consensus was that Raul was simply regressing towards the real Raul...not so surprising in the end, but interesting how he got there.
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Regressing to the real Raul makes no sense. That implies past performance is a predictor of future performance and goes against any and all tenents of analysis.
Also tacky to pimp your blog here. It's not like you are TheGoodPhight or TheGoodPhight or something like that.
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Actually the .560 still sticks out like a sore thumb, but maybe that's just me.
So does the .432 BB/SO. He's different this year. He's just not better. More Ks, More HRs, Fewer nonHR hits, a few more BBs. 07 and 08 are practically identical though
Park-effects? The shift from Safeco to Citizen's Bank should add a goodly chunk of slugging.
I wonder what the BABIP-split for Ibanez is for the two periods.
There is a difference in 09 than the other years. He may not be better but the difference is ballpark factors. I just wonder when he's going to start to deteriorate because of age. Perhaps it has already started?