For a fan of the college game, this day two of the June draft is going to be filled with a lot of interesting names. Yesterday was too, of course, but they were the same names we’ve all heard about for months. I sort of relish this second day as an opportunity to see some real sleepers, to see which team’s scouting departments my own biases line up with. In previous years, I’ve always posted a list of the guys I like more than the rest — who I’d be taking in the early-to-middle rounds.
I liked the Jared Mitchell and Matt Bashore selections yesterday, for instance, but today I think you’ll hear from more than a few guys I think are destined big leaguers. Here’s five I like more than the rest, ranked in order of where I think they deserve to go:
Kyle Thebeau, rhp, Texas A&M. I panned the Nationals yesterday for drafting Georgia Friday night starter Trevor Holder in the third round, as the right-hander really just has three average pitches. But, Washington really is the one team where drafting for signability in these middle rounds makes sense: the Strasburg bonus takes a chunk out of the budget, no doubt. Still, why Holder rather than Thebeau? The latter was a top prospect in 2007, following his sophomore season, when he struck out 10.5 batters per nine in a weekend starter spot. But command problems pushed him out of the rotation as a junior, and he wanted better than to sign as a ninth round pick. This season, the sole focus because improving his command, which regrettably early in the season meant a decline in stuff. His K/BB ratio this year is 40/13 in 59 innings, which is littered with both positives and negatives. But late in the season, the stuff was back, and Thebeau showed enough endurance to warrant a move back to a minor league rotation next year. The senior’s last six collegiate appearances: 23 innings, 16 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 walks and 20 strikeouts.
Khris Davis, of, Cal State Fullerton. The Titans have a lot of players that have become household names in their run as the number two team in the country this season, but not enough know about their 2009 MVP (as voted on by me), Khris Davis. We knew before the season that the offense needed a power bat, we just didn’t know where it would come from. Davis, who had struggled on and off the field for two seasons, seemed an unlikely source. However, here we stand four months later, and Davis leads Fullerton in doubles (25), home runs (16) and walks (34). He’s probably a touch too slow to play center, and his arm not quite enough for right field, but I think he hits enough for left. He’s turned it on in the postseason, too, going 11-for-23 with four walks and four home runs in five tournament games.
Caleb Cotham, rhp, Vanderbilt. Many of you know the affinity I hold for the Cape Cod League, and Cotham was very good with the Brewster Whitecaps one year ago. The right-hander allowed just 34 hits in 46 innings, striking out 51 batters on the summer. Inconsistency, as it has throughout his career at Vanderbilt, plagued his season, as Cotham managed only a 4.10 ERA in 13 starts as a junior. Commodores coaches put Cotham in the bullpen towards the end of the season, but when they let him loose as a starter in the postseason, the Cape version of Cotham was there: a complete game shut out of Middle Tennessee State and a seven-inning, one run domination of Arkansas in the SEC Tournament. All told, 16 innings, with a strikeout-to-walk of 15/1, thanks to the rediscovery of a two-plane slider. Tim Corbin tells me he thinks with one more season, his coaches could make Cotham a first rounder. If I’m a team in the middle rounds, I don’t let Corbin get the chance.
Tyson Van Winkle, c, Gonzaga. Even outside of his utterly fantastic baseball name, Van Winkle is a prospect not getting enough attention. Yesterday, the college side saw three catchers drafted in the first three rounds. Today, I think you’ll see Trevor Coleman (Missouri) and Ryan Ortiz (Oregon State) both get drafted before Van Winkle is considered. I think it’s a mistake — I would grade Van Winkle higher than Robert Stock, even. A converted infielder, he doesn’t have Stock’s arm behind the plate, but almost threw out an identical number of runners behind the plate. Reports were positive about his gradual improvement, and Van Winkle threw out 4-of-7 runners in postseason play. As a hitter, he was Gonzaga’s best, offering gap power (27 doubles, 5 home runs) and good contact skills (28 strikeouts in 232 at-bats). For me, more than Stock, Ortiz or Tommy Medica, Van Winkle was the best collegiate catcher on the West Coast this season.
Preston Clark, c, Texas. Another catcher, and another senior, as I’m even pushing signability a little bit on this second day. Why not draft Clark and then spend the money on Max Stassi, and see who works out better as a catcher? In 2007, Clark as a five-figure bargain was an impossible thought, he was a draft-eligible sophomore coming off a .286/.350/.498 season with the bat at Texas — he had a lot of teams on him. But Clark didn’t show much of a desire to sign, slipped until the 33rd round, and it’s been downhill since. Numerous injuries, including a bad one to his shoulder, have really damaged his last two seasons. His latest injury he didn’t return from until the second game of the Big 12 Tournament, but since then, he’s been very good. Clark has hit .333/.359/.611 in the postseason, and while he’s been unable to catch, bashing his first two home runs of the season is a good sign about his health. He’s played behind the plate, at the corners and in the outfield, so at worst, I think he’s a bench bat (Tyler Houston?) down the road. You can do worse for $50,000.
Not at all. Both are solid fourth round selections. Matthes is nice because he's going to come a little cheaper, and Morris' dominant season put him ahead of a few that got drafted above him in my mind. I also like Ryan Berry for the same reasons.
Mike, I thought there was a decent chance that Clark wouldn't go -- after all, these injuries have left scouts very doubtful about his ability to catch. My interest in him is predicated on the fact that you're spending a tiny amount of money (and now, it will be even less than I guessed by quite a bit) on the hope that he could. It's worth it.
Why Thebeau hasn't gone, well, I'm bewildered about that.
any thoughts on the phillies selection of brody colvin in the 7th, and jacob stewart in the 14th? signability concerns? they both seem to have great upside, and we have time to let them develop in the minors... also, does anyone have more athletic/toolsy outfielders in their minor league system than the fightins?
Jared, I don't think the Phillies have much of a chance at Jacob Stewart. We talked in the Day One Roundtable about Stanford's ability to get their commitments onto campus, so it's a good bet to say that Stewart heads off to Palo Alto. I don't know about Colvin's situation specifically, but he's committed to LSU, and Paul Mainieri's budding program is a solid selling point. My guess is that Colvin would consider signing for well over slot, but I think Stewart won't.
6 comments have been left for this post.
I'm hoping for Mathes or AJ Morris to the Royals in the 4th... am I nuts?
Not at all. Both are solid fourth round selections. Matthes is nice because he's going to come a little cheaper, and Morris' dominant season put him ahead of a few that got drafted above him in my mind. I also like Ryan Berry for the same reasons.