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December 18, 2006, 02:40 PM ET
The Most Underrated Pitcher in Baseball

by Nate Silver

PECOTA says that he’s the 20th most valuable pitcher in baseball long-term, more valuable than Roy Oswalt, Dontrelle Willis, or Justin Verlander. He’s one of just eleven pitchers to post a VORP of 40 or higher in each of the last two seasons. He pitches in a major media market, is in the prime of his career, and has no red flags in his injury or health performance record. And yet, he’s never received a vote for the Cy Young award, never made an All-Star team, and has barely one-fifth the Google hits of Barry Zito.

Who is he? Scroll your mouse over the chart below if you want to know.

The Elite Eleven: Pitchers with a VORP of 40 or Higher in both 2005 and 2006, sorted by Google Hits

Pitcher           VORP '05 VORP '06     Google
Clemens, Roger       80.2     42.1    1,090,000
Zito, Barry          41.1     49.9      768,000
Santana, Johan       79.6     73.0      479,000
Carpenter, Chris     67.8     67.8      472,000
Smoltz, John         60.1     61.9      368,000
Zambrano, Carlos     51.2     53.8      327,000
Willis, Dontrelle    65.2     40.5      315,000
Oswalt, Roy          65.1     72.4      301,000
Webb, Brandon        46.2     68.9      225,000
Myers, Brett         41.6     40.7      209,000
Lackey, John         49.1     47.1      165,000

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