Watching the Dodgers-Cubs game last night, one of the announcers discussed how much better Andre Ethier was hitting since Manny Ramirez came to the team. That’s something we can test, so I asked Eric Seidman to take a look at this through the lens of Pitch F/X. His findings follow:
Andre Ethier recently said that he felt he was seeing better pitches with Manny Ramirez batting behind him. The same was speculated regarding Jeff Kent, when he hit before ManRam. What does better pitches mean? More carefully placed pitches? Less junk? The best I can figure, better pitches refers to both a higher percentage of fastballs and an overall higher percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone, regardless of type. To test this, I looked at the Pitch F/X data for Ethier from 3/31 to 8/27, when he was not hitting ahead of Manny, and compared it to the data from 8/28 until the end of the season, when Manny was protecting him. Here are the results:
Pre-Hitting Before Manny
Fastballs: 61.7%
Cu/Sl: 23.7%
Changeup: 14.6%
Pitches per PA: 3.75 Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 55.5%
Hitting Before Manny
Fastballs: 62.7%
Cu/Sl: 23.0%
Changeup: 14.3%
Pitches per PA: 4.32 Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 56.6%
Essentially, nothing has changed. There was a shift in his curveballs or sliders seen but that is more likely a byproduct of the pitchers he was facing rather than any type of game strategy. He saw virtually the same amount of fastballs and same percentage of pitches in a pretty generous strike zone before hitting in front of Manny and after. It might seem like he is seeing better pitches but it could be some type of placebo effect. Then again, if you define “better pitches” differently, let me know and I’ll run more tests. - Eric Seidman
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UPDATE: Eric adds: “One aspect of seeing better pitches that this would not measure is when they are thrown. In theory, a guy with a 3-2 count and Michael Bourn on deck could see a tricky slider designed to strike him out, but which may walk him. With Manny, they don’t want to put someone on ahead of him, so Ethier may be more likely to see fastballs in these types of situations. Given his increase in pitches per PA batting ahead of Manny he is also exhibiting more patience at the plate and working the count, quite possibly into his favor.”
I remember catching the end of the announcer's comment, and I could have sworn that Tony Gwynn said that Ethier was seeing better pitches because he was hitting behind Manny, which is where Ethier hit last night. The argument that Ethier is seeing better pitches because he's behind Manny makes less sense than seeing them in front of Manny, but I just wanted to throw that out there.
I think perception of "protection" by the masses is represented fairly accurately in the reading above, but i think inching towards "placebo effect" might harsh the point a little. "Taking the pressure off" is another perceived effect in these cases, and that psychological edge, plus the more careful placement of pitches, are the reason for this "myth," methinks.
It's too bad david ortiz isn't 100%, or you could measure the effect in reverse...
I remember prior to this current fantasy baseball season, I was talking to someone who didn't own Hanley Ramirez but was clearly bitter about it. He was trying to find a chink in Ramirez's armor and he mentioned that his stats would go down because he wouldn't have Miguel Cabrera in the lineup.
I know this isn't a "BP Quantitative" perspective, but I've always been a believer in needing a "straw that stirs the drink".
The Dodgers offense didn't work well because Either, Kemp, Loney, Martin et al. are all secondary, good but not great, offensive players (at least at this point in their careers). Adding one great hitter to hit in the middle makes their offense work much better. Either, for example, is a good option batting 5 or 6, but he's not yet a 3 or 4. Manny allows everyone to slot into a place where they are an asset.
ScottyB: The Dodgers offense is obviously better with Manny in the lineup than without him, but his presence doesn't make Ethier, Kemp, etc. better players. Adding a bat like Manny's to *any* offense will make it a better offense - that doesn't have anything to do with having a "straw that stirs the drink" it just means that adding talent adds production. The rest of the guys in the lineup are the same players as they were before he arrived (which is generally the point of Eric's study, I believe).
It seems theoretically possible that a "straw" could push the cumulative run-scoring of a team past some threshold and into a greater sum than its parts.
For example, if I have two guys that hit a single literally every time they bat, but the rest of my lineup strikes out every single AB, then I've got two amazing players who aren't going to score/produce a single run for me all year. Adding just one more guy who singles a third of the time is going to increase my run production by infinityish.
This is an extreme example, but is it possible that Manny DOES make Ethier, Kemp, etc. better by making their efforts more effective in terms of scoring runs?
And I, as a hometown Boston boy, am no Manny apologist, but it sounds possible to me.
Manny has been unreal in LA, which is why they are driving in more runs (cause he's on base all the time) and scoring more runs (cause he hit 17 HR in less than two months)
I'm also willing to throw in there other unmeasurable platitudes: that Manny brings excitement to the other hitters, that Manny shows an example to other hitters about how to hit, that Manny may say things to other hitters that help them hit. But to say that Ethier's jump in production was only because Manny was in the lineup seems an absurdly simplistic and wrong-headed way to view the complex world of baseball.
"Protection" is so intuitively sensible that it is hard to believe otherwise. It simply makes sense that pitchers would go to extra effort to be sure they didn't walk a hitter who has a great hitter behind them. Particularly with two out and men already on base.
I think what we are really learning here is that pitchers intentionally throw outside the strike zone far less often than we give them credit for. The reason why these guys aren't seeing 'better pitches' is because the pitchers can't make their pitches any better.
Shoewizard, that is exactly what I was referring to. If Ethier THINKS he is going to see better pitches because, as kcboomer says, it makes so much intuitive sense that he SHOULD, then his confidence is likely going to go up, and he is going to be better at working the count, perhaps, getting to see better pitches more often. Statistically, Ethier is not really seeing anything different, but if he thinks he is then that does say something. He has definitely stepped his game up in the last couple of months but I feel that to credit solely Manny for this surge is inaccurate.
It may not show up in the long term numbers, but watching last night's dodger game showed the situations where protection helps. 2nd inning, bases loaded and two outs. Zambrano was missing the plate and went 3-1 to martin. Do you have martin swing away or take a pitch hoping for the walk with Manny behind him. Zambrano is already down 2-0, he can't afford to go down 3-0 with a walk AND still have to face manny, so he has to throw a strike here. He put it right down the middle and Martin took it to the wall, clearing the bases. If Angel Berroa is up next, you might not put it right down the middle, because you don't fear the next hitter.
Again, it doesn't matter most of the time, but it does matter in key situations. Those key situations may not happen often enough to show up in general statistics, but those key moments (runners on base) are the times when runs are scored and games are won and lost.
Fine, except that a) we don't know that Zambrano would have accepted the risk if a lesser-talent than Manny was on deck, and b) the hole Zambrano was in was 2 runs in, bases loaded, facing the #2 hitter, a 3-1 count and two outs.
ANY #3 hitter is going to make Zambrano (or any other pitcher in that same situation) think twice about risking walking in a run and having to face the next hitter who is NOT ANGEL BERROA, since Angel Berroa would never bat third in a major league, playoff playing lineup.
Lineups tends to bunch the best hitters close to each other, so I don't buy that this example talks about protection. It talks about situation and lineup construction.
The only statistical difference between the two samples is the pitches per PA. Since the strike percentage is nearly identical, this would indicate that the batter has become more patient. My theory would be that "protection" is simply increased plate discipline as a result of higher confidence.
Why would Ethier see BETTER pitches when hitting before Manny? How is it better to increase the probability of having a man on when Manny comes up (by letting Ethier see better pitches)? Wouldn't Manny's presence just add to the importance of getting Ethier out?
Davejsch makes a great point, that probably needs to be expanded upon. Did the extra half pitch come from more foul tips, or from taking more balls?
As to RiloBoxer, the idea is that because Manny is such a threat for a multiple base hit, its better to go after the hitter ahead of him, try to get him out on contact, then risk giving a walk. Even if you give up a few extra hits, you should also give up fewer walks, and in theory, have fewer base runners on for a guy that is always a threat to drive in runs.
I would think that a better test of protection would focus on pitch-around or intentional walk situations. Hard to make the case for exactly what that is, but two outs / man on second and men on second and third would be a start.
The sample would be too small to address the Manny situation, but it would be interesting to see what the pitch f/x data says.
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I remember catching the end of the announcer's comment, and I could have sworn that Tony Gwynn said that Ethier was seeing better pitches because he was hitting behind Manny, which is where Ethier hit last night. The argument that Ethier is seeing better pitches because he's behind Manny makes less sense than seeing them in front of Manny, but I just wanted to throw that out there.