CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe
Strength of Schedule Report

Articles Tagged Predictions 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

06-29

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Self Assessing at the (almost) Halfway Point
by
Mike Gianella

04-03

comment icon

0

Cold Takes: Everything is Unlikely
by
Patrick Dubuque

04-08

comment icon

15

Fantasy Freestyle: Five Bold Predictions
by
Wilson Karaman

04-06

comment icon

16

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-03

comment icon

0

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-03

comment icon

11

Fantasy Staff Predictions
by
BP Fantasy Staff

07-15

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made
by
Mike Gianella

04-04

comment icon

1

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-30

comment icon

5

BP Unfiltered: Beware of Bias in Predicted Team Win Totals
by
Jeffrey A. Friedman

03-28

comment icon

10

Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions
by
Doug Thorburn

02-19

comment icon

20

BP Unfiltered: 2013 32 Predictions Contest Results
by
Sky Kalkman

01-06

comment icon

2

Overthinking It: Testing the Predictive Powers of 2013 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-02

comment icon

2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 356: Bill James' Predictions for 2015, and Our Predictions for 2030
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

comment icon

10

The Lineup Card: 15 Things We Were Wrong About This Year
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-18

comment icon

10

Changing Speeds: The All-Vindication Team
by
Ken Funck

06-25

comment icon

0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 231: Revisiting Several Things We've Said
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-16

comment icon

9

Overthinking It: The Mystique and Aura of the Other 29 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-11

comment icon

9

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-29

comment icon

5

BP Unfiltered: Cats! Predicting! Baseball!
by
Jason Wojciechowski

03-29

comment icon

16

32 Predictions Contest
by
Sky Kalkman

03-18

comment icon

19

Pebble Hunting: Eight Predictions About Mike Trout
by
Sam Miller

02-18

comment icon

24

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-07

comment icon

3

Pebble Hunting: Are GMs Smart or Not Smart?
by
Sam Miller

10-30

comment icon

4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 72: How Many Members of the Angels' Rotation Will Be Back?/Predicting the First- and Last-Place Teams of 2013
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-11

comment icon

0

Overthinking It: What Teams and Players Predicted About Themselves
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-04

comment icon

7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 56: A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-03

comment icon

9

Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very Bad Season
by
Sam Miller

09-18

comment icon

31

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Agony of Rational Rooting
by
Nick Piecoro

09-07

comment icon

0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 37: The Tigers' Defense is What We Thought it Was/Brandon Wood and the Quad-A Player
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-09

comment icon

0

BP Unfiltered: Taking A Look At Our Preseason Predictions
by
Bradley Ankrom

03-27

comment icon

9

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

comment icon

0

The BP Wayback Machine: Randomness in Team Standings Predictions
by
Keith Woolner

02-02

comment icon

10

Wezen-Ball: The 2011 Preview Magazines Are Here!
by
Larry Granillo

12-31

comment icon

155

Prospectus Today: Retrospective on Runs and Records
by
Joe Sheehan

03-31

comment icon

10

Prospectus Today: Predictions
by
Joe Sheehan

11-09

comment icon

0

Predictatron Recap
by
Ben Murphy

07-11

comment icon

0

Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

03-24

comment icon

0

2005--Setting the Stage
by
Keith Woolner

01-16

comment icon

0

PECOTA Takes on the Field
by
Nate Silver

03-20

comment icon

0

Breaking Balls: Forecasting the Future
by
Derek Zumsteg

04-12

comment icon

0

6-4-3: Noises from the Feedbag, Part Two
by
Gary Huckabay

03-31

comment icon

1

Prospectus Feature: American League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-30

comment icon

0

Prospectus Feature: National League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-08

comment icon

0

Still Here?
by
James Kushner

02-01

comment icon

0

The Prospectus Projections Project
by
David Cameron and Greg Spira

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 29, 2017 6:10 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Self Assessing at the (almost) Halfway Point

3

Mike Gianella

Looking back and projections for Justin Bour, Mike Moustakas, Kevin Kiermaier, Daniel Norris, Yadier Molina, Daniel Murphy, Aledmys Diaz, Aaron Judge.

It is difficult to believe, but we are almost halfway through the 2017 season. While a lot will change in the second half, enough of the season has been played so that some assessment can be offered of how well (or poorly) some of our preseason predictions have played out. While it is easy to make preseason calls and never bring them up again, it always is worth looking back at what we got right—and what we got wrong, and why.

I’ll start with the players I told fantasy players to target, and then finish with the players I advised fantasy managers to avoid.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Nietzsche could learn something about baseball.

It’s here. The time has come for baseball, for the poets to hunt for beauty in the chloroplasts of blades of outfield grass, for the drunken bravado of the common fan to look at the empty standings and cash in future dreams. Opening Day is that perfect moment between the too-long spring and the too-long summer, the breath right before the orchestra plays. Every moment can be like this if we want to be, but Opening Day is the one when it is.

It’s also the final moment when every team is tied for first place, chances still equal, even though they really aren’t. Everyone knows who the favorites are, to some degree, thanks to the projection systems, talent evaluation tools, and previous experience. These notions are hardly new; power rankings are as old as experts, then fortified by the leanings of Vegas, then the analysis of early fantasy scribes.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

April 8, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Five Bold Predictions

15

Wilson Karaman

Wilson goes out on a limb, forecasting big things for Pedro Alvarez, Mike Napoli, and others.

It occurred to me the other day in filling out my BP staff predictions ballot that I hadn’t written a #bold fantasy predictions column anywhere on the internet yet this spring. And that’s just a damn shame, because who doesn’t love #bold predictions! So with no further ado, and likely much ado about nothing, here are five things that are definitely going to happen.

Pedro Alvarez will lead the National League in home runs with a whiff rate under 22 percent

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Our picks for the playoff races and major awards this season.

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.).

Read the full article...

Our picks for the playoff races and major awards this season.

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.).

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

April 3, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Staff Predictions

11

BP Fantasy Staff

The gang makes its picks for the top fantasy rookie, the first closer to lose his job, and much more.

It’s been a long off-season. We’ve done projects and rankings and team posts and strategy sessions and you’ve stuck around for the whole thing. As a team, we are ever grateful of your patronage. The regular season starts Sunday night, and since a larger percentage of drafts are over, it’s time to have a little fun.

In the tradition of shorter introductions (and earlier bedtimes), I submitted the following 10 questions to our crack fantasy staff, and here are the answers that hit my inbox:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

If you saw any of these outlandish things coming before the season started'well, you were right.

A popular preseason article topic for fantasy baseball writers is “10 Crazy Predictions.” These types of articles usually try to make wild predictions based on a somewhat logical premise. Typically, most of these predictions miss the mark, with perhaps one or two of them hitting the jackpot.

Truth is stranger than fiction, or so the old bromide goes. But every year, it never fails: Something happens that falls completely outside of the realm of anyone’s predictive powers, even for those who are trying to find outliers. Below is a non-inclusive listing of fantasy baseball events that no one in his or her right mind would have predicted in April that are absolute stunners.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

All of the stats about your 32 prediction contest ballots.

This year’s 32 Predictions contest had almost the exactly the same number of entries as last year’s, with 686. Forty-nine entries left at least one question blank, and 11 of you decided not to name your entry. (At least we can never make fun of you for it.)

Read the full article...

Are you overly optimistic about your favorite team?

Sam Miller and I recently interviewed 28 Baseball Prospectus 2014 authors as part of the Effectively Wild season preview podcast series. At the end of each episode, we asked our guest to predict the 2014 win total for the team we’d just talked about. Listener Jeffrey A. Friedman sent us the following unsolicited submission about bias in these predicted win totals, which we decided to publish with his permission. Beware of bias in your own predictions! —Ben Lindbergh

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

March 28, 2014 11:22 am

Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions

10

Doug Thorburn

What does Doug see ahead for selected pitchers in 2014?

Along with the rest of the BP staff, I’ve submitted my pre-season predictions for division standings and end-of-season award winners. I tend to stay in the neighborhood of likely outcomes for these picks, resulting in easy answers such as “Mike Trout for AL MVP” or “Tigers win the AL Central,” but I’m more intrigued by the long-shot stories that emerge once the season starts.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

How good were BP readers at predicting events last season?

The number have finally been crunched on the 2013 32 Predictions contest. Five entrants tied with 26 points, but with the earliest entry, Vitaly Vinar wins the tie-breaker. Congrats! Full results can be found here.

Read the full article...

Reviewing the many predictions teams and players made about themselves last season.

Hot Stove season is slowing, which means it’s almost time for team executives and players to start telling you how good they’re going to be in 2014. There are many reasons for teams and players to predict success: to sell tickets, to avoid 0.0 Nielsen ratings, to motivate themselves and their teammates. Most of the time, predicting success makes more sense than saying “We suck.”

We know that media members make many regrettable predictions: that the 2013 Red Sox would be boring, that Mike Trout wouldn’t be worth taking early in a fantasy draft, that the Angels and Blue Jays would win the West and the East. But anything a team might tell you is equally suspect. So just like last year, I’ve trawled the internet for predictions that teams and players made about themselves before the start of last season. The only condition was that there weren’t conditions—if we stay healthy, if we play up to our capabilities, etc. Only unqualified forecasts of future events could be counted—the stronger and more specific, the better.

Read the full article...

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries