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Lies, Damned Lies 

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05-07

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35

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game
by
Nate Silver

03-26

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22

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests
by
Nate Silver

02-23

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43

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds
by
Nate Silver

08-22

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft (Part 2)
by
Nate Silver

08-21

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
by
Nate Silver

08-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers
by
Nate Silver

08-07

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Lies, Damned Lies: Bonds Bingo
by
Nate Silver

07-24

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Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark
by
Nate Silver

07-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag
by
Nate Silver

07-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: Flipping the Switch
by
Nate Silver

06-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages
by
Nate Silver

06-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t
by
Nate Silver

06-11

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Chipper's Chase of .400
by
Nate Silver

06-05

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

05-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating Pitcher Hitting
by
Nate Silver

05-22

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-15

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?
by
Nate Silver

05-08

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

05-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Second Basemen
by
Nate Silver

04-25

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Age of Suspicion
by
Nate Silver

04-18

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Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays
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Nate Silver

04-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: Picking the Under
by
Nate Silver

04-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings
by
Nate Silver

03-28

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on First Base Prospects
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects
by
Nate Silver

02-29

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Lies, Damned Lies: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
by
Nate Silver

02-14

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Smoking Gun?
by
Nate Silver

10-31

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West
by
Nate Silver

10-30

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL East
by
Nate Silver

10-23

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL East
by
Nate Silver

10-18

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL West
by
Nate Silver

10-12

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL Central
by
Nate Silver

10-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL Central
by
Nate Silver

10-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Greatest Pennant Race Comebacks
by
Nate Silver

09-27

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

09-21

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4

Lies, Damned Lies: The Best Player in Baseball, Part Two
by
Nate Silver

09-20

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2

Lies, Damned Lies: The Best Player in Baseball, Part One
by
Nate Silver

09-13

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: New Life on Different Fields
by
Nate Silver

09-06

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Lies, Damned Lies: Ticket Pricing
by
Nate Silver

09-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Contenders' Rotations
by
Nate Silver

08-23

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Lies, Damned Lies: Rookies and Cycles
by
Nate Silver

08-20

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Lies, Damned Lies: Slotto Madness, Part 3
by
Nate Silver

08-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Slotto Bonanzas, Part Two
by
Nate Silver

08-17

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Lies, Damned Lies: Slotto Bonanzas, Part One
by
Nate Silver

08-02

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Lies, Damned Lies: Baseball's New Underclass
by
Nate Silver

07-27

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Lies, Damned Lies: Fixing It
by
Nate Silver

07-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Ned's Report Card
by
Nate Silver

07-11

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Lies, Damned Lies: All-Star Game Wrap
by
Nate Silver

06-28

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Lies, Damned Lies: All-Star Balloting
by
Nate Silver

06-21

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Lies, Damned Lies: Be Sharp
by
Nate Silver

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May 7, 2009 8:20 pm

Lies, Damned Lies: The Steroids Game

35

Nate Silver

Figuring out who uses or used, when and why, and what we can take from the exercise.

If you're like me, you've played something called 'The Steroids Game.' The Steroids Game takes place when you sit around a bar, or a rec room, or a ballpark, with a number of baseball-loving friends, and try and guess who is on performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). Perhaps, if you're particularly deranged, you've even played Rotisserie Steroids, which is just like regular rotisserie baseball except that the categories are games suspended (GS), cameramen kicked (CK), testicles ruptured (TR), days spent in the company of Jose Canseco (DSJC).

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March 26, 2009 2:39 pm

Lies, Damned Lies: Stress Tests

22

Nate Silver

Finding out what happens when you project people to be slightly different from the way they are.

Stress tests are not just for cardiac patients and big failing banks: we can also apply them to baseball players. What if Tiny Tim Lincecum were really Tall Tim Lincecum? What if Albert Pujols was older than purported? What if we took a right-handed pitcher and magically turned him into a lefty?

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February 23, 2009 12:09 pm

Lies, Damned Lies: Chasing Bonds

43

Nate Silver

It's A-Rod, not John Law, with a look at whether he will set the all-time mark for career home runs.

We're less than two full years removed from Barry Bonds' somber, strange, and soulless quest to break Henry Aaron's lifetime home-run record. It was a spectacle that most sports fans-even the few like me who were relatively sympathetic towards Bonds' plight-would go to great lengths to avoid having to experience again.

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Players number 1 through 25 in the third annual ranking of the game's best.

This is Part 2 of yesterday's Lies, Damned Lies: The Ultimate Fantasy Draft, which included players ranked from number 26 through 50, as well as honorable mentions.

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The players ranked from number 26 through 50 in the third annual ranking of the game's best.

Welcome, ladies and gents, to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft. What, you are probably wondering, is the Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft? It is the answer to this question: If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? That is, which players would you take-and in what order would you take them-if your goal was to win as many championships as possible over the medium-to-long-term?

Read the full article...

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August 14, 2008 10:35 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Tufte Takes on the Tigers

0

Nate Silver

Charting Detroit's future course now that at least one observer's running up the white flag.

Having dropped 10 of their last 13 ballgames, the Tigers have gone from longshot to no shot, with now barely more than a three percent chance of reaching the playoffs. While the Tigers have not officially waved the white flag, I am going to do so for them, by unveiling our first "Tufte Takes On" piece of the season.

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Time's running short, but so are the list of potential fits for the former Giants slugger.

Oh, it was going to happen. It was just a matter of when. Not in March or April, maybe, and probably not in May or June. As the trade deadline approached, some team was going to look out at the trade market, realize they were going to need to give up three or four quality prospects to acquire a good outfielder, and realize at that price it was worth signing ... Barry Bonds.

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July 24, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Shrinking the Ballpark

0

Nate Silver

The venues are getting smaller, but is this really what's best, and what else can the industry add to the live experience?

Trivia question: Yankee Stadium seats 57,545 fans, which is presently the largest capacity of any park in Major League Baseball. When it closes this year, and is replaced by a ballpark that seats roughly 6,000 fewer fans, which facility will take its place as the largest stadium in MLB?

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July 11, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Running Up the White Flag

0

Nate Silver

Do these flags fly forever too?

We've become far more sophisticated over the years about performing financial analysis on trades. We now understand, for instance, that there is a very measurable financial benefit to a team when it makes the playoffs. We also understand that the way you create long-term value in baseball is by employing players who are still in their reserve-clause or arbitration seasons, and paying them a fraction of their market value. It is the interweaving of these two factors that creates most of the trade market.

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The Rays power up surprised some, but they're just getting started.

It is rare in baseball to talk about team cohesion. In contrast to the other major sports, there are relatively few interactions between players on the same club. The pitcher stands out there on the mound all by himself and throws the ball; the hitter stands there in the batters' box all by himself and hopes to hit it. There is no baseball equivalent of John Stockton passing to Karl Malone, or Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne.

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June 29, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Home-Field Advantages

0

Nate Silver

Which teams enjoy outsized advantages from playing at home?

Home-field advantage is making a little bit of a comeback this year, with the home team thus far having won 56.2 percent of major league baseball games. This is actually down a few ticks from where it was several weeks ago; at the beginning of June, home teams had won almost 58 percent of their games. Nevertheless, this is quite high by the standards of recent history. Prior to World War II (when travel was more burdensome and road trips much longer), home-field advantage was more profound in baseball, but since then it has been exceptionally stable, with the home team winning about 54 percent of games each season. So, is there something systematic that is causing the home-field numbers to increase this year? Or has it just been some kind of statistical fluke?

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June 19, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Trying to Get LOESS-t

0

Nate Silver

Evaluating performance levels of populations of players by position over the last half-century.

In playing around with the McCain-Obama polling data over at my political blogging project, I came across a procedure known as a LOESS regression. LOESS is a way to create smooth-looking curves out of sequential data. Some of LOESS's virtues are aesthetic; the curves it produces seem to look and feel just right. But it can also be considerably more robust than something like a moving average in handling time series data, performing more strongly in the presence of outliers. Since we look at all sorts of time-series data in baseball, LOESS ought potentially to have all kinds applications to the game.

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