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November 29, 2009

So You Need

Power

by Marc Normandin

Free agents classified as power hitters can be very alluring in the offseason, since power production is one of those things that every team wishes it could have more of. They can also be considered one of the more dangerous investments, due to the age and diminishing skill levels of many free agents in today's market—you run the risk of overpaying for past performance on players whose best days and fastest swings may already be behind them. Recognizing who is still a relevant and productive member of baseball society is half the battle—if you don't figure that out, you may end up paying more for someone capable of delivering less based on reputation and name value alone.

The 2008-09 offseason was more bountiful in terms of power, with Mark Teixeira signing in New York and Manny Ramirez electing to stay in Los Angeles (both for big money) and then everyone else—save maybe Raul Ibañez—signing at some kind of discount. Milton Bradley, regardless of his current situation with the Cubs, was signed for a pretty solid rate given his ceiling and recent performances. Adam Dunn was inked at a worthy rate of compensation, despite his defensive shortcomings. Pat Burrell, before anyone knew he was actually Paul Sorrento in disguise, signed what looked like an under-market deal with the Rays. Juan Rivera re-upped with the Angels at a low price, Jason Giambi tried to keep his career going with the Athletics on the kind of deal Oakland is capable of offering, and Bobby Abreu signed for even less than all of them just so he could get a job.

It was that kind of winter, as even someone with Abreu's skills was desperate for work, just because there was plenty available for those with a shopping list to browse through. This offseason is going to be a bit more reminiscent of the first official day of the holiday shopping season, Black Friday: teams will be pushing and shoving to get the last Tickle-Me Jason Bay off of the shelf before their unruly neighbor can shove them aside to get it for themselves. There is not a whole lot to choose from, but there's value if you know how and where to look. Pay attention Mr. Minaya, this one's on the house.

1. Matt Holliday: The perception was that Holliday was struggling in his transition to the American League in 2008, but he hit .286/.378/.454 in Oakland, a tough hitter's park in a more difficult league. That must have made the NL seem even easier upon his return there, because he hit .353/.419/.604 the rest of the way with St. Louis. The real Matt Holliday lies somewhere in between those two figures, which would not be a bad haul for say, any of the 30 teams in baseball. Holliday and Jason Bay are actually going in opposite directions with their power production, with Bay on the rise and Holliday trending downward, but Holliday makes a lot of contact and is an above-average defender, making him the more valuable player for power shoppers by a landslide.

2. Mike Cameron: There's an argument to be made that Cameron is more valuable than Jason Bay, and I intend to make it. Cameron is five years older than Bay, which is probably the biggest knock against him, but if someone does the smart thing and signs him to a two- or three-year deal, they should be able to wring the last of his value out of him without suffering for their decision. Bay is the superior slugger, but Cameron more than makes up for it by adding power at an up-the-middle position. He's two or three wins better than Bay defensively in a given year, and about one or two wins worse at the plate, though he's no slouch in center with a three-year ISO of .208. So, at worst, you break even production wise, but in marketplace reality Bay's looking at $15-17 million a year in a long-term deal (he just turned down four years and $60 million from the Red Sox, who also have the added incentive of contending), whereas Cameron made $10 million in 2009, the most he's made in a single year and a number that is not likely to be topped. Dollar for dollar, Cameron is the better acquisition, and also the one that leaves you with money to spend on other issues.