On the Beat: Mr. Octob... (11/03)
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November 3, 2009 Prospectus Hit and RunShorting Out
The Phillies hit 224 home runs during the regular season, and another 14 through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Through the first four games of the World Series, they added seven more, but they didn't get so much bang for their buck, as all of those homers were solo shots. That changed in the first inning on Monday night, when Chase Utley crushed an A.J. Burnett meatball for a three-run homer, erasing a 1-0 Yankees lead in a potential World Series clincher and sending the Citizens Bank Park fans into a towel-waving frenzy. Utley added another homer in the seventh inning, and with it he entered the history books, tying both Reggie Jackson's 1977 record of five homers in a World Series and Willie Mays Aikens' 1980 record for the most multi-homer games in a World Series. His second shot was a solo stroke, and it widened the Phillies' lead to 7-2. As it turned out, they would need that run, because the Yankees fought back from an early five-run deficit to bring the tying run to the plate in the ninth inning. The Yankees began the game in a hole because Burnett laid an egg, surrendering six runs in two-plus innings. Pitching on three days' rest, he was unable to match the brilliance of his seven-inning, one-run Game Two start, not because of fatigue—his average fastball and curveball velocities were higher according to Brooks Baseball—but because he was unable to fool the Phillies with his curveball, in part because home-plate ump Dana DeMuth's strike zone wasn't as wide as that of Jeff Nelson. Breaking down the breaking balls thrown in the two starts: Game Total Ball SS SL F I Two 45 20 8 7 7 3 Five 16 10 3 0 2 1 For the unfamiliar, SS is strikes swinging, SL is strikes looking, F is foul balls, and I is in play. Whereas Burnett generated not-in-play strikes on 22 out of 45 curves in Game Two (49 percent), he did so on just five out of 16 (31 percent) in Game Five, none of them strikes looking. Five of his nine strikeouts in Game Two ended on a curveball, three swinging and two looking, as compared to one of his two walks. He got just one strikeout via curveball (swinging) last night, and two of his four walks. The result was a nasty, brutish, and short start that left the Yankees in a 5-1 hole by the time he departed. Utley's homer, which followed a Jimmy Rollins single and a Shane Victorino hit by pitch on a bunt attempt, came on just his eighth pitch of the night. After escaping the second inning unscathed, he walked Utley and Ryan Howard—never, ever a good idea—to start the third, then yielded RBI singles to Jayson Werth and Raul Ibañez. That was enough for Yankees manager Joe Girardi, who called upon David Robertson. Robertson retired both Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz, but the latter's grounder scored Werth to give the Phillies a formidable five-run lead.
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
Girardi's three man rotation, with all of its short starts, may have worked against a lesser team than the Phillies but it's a bad idea against them.
Better to have stetched both Joba and Gaudin in bullpen sessions--neither is helping in the pen anyway; Gaudin isn't going to pitch at all--in preparation for one of them starting game 5, backed by the other. This would free up Pettitte to back up Burnett, who would be on normal rest, in game 6, which he is far better suited to do on three days rest than start the game. Or if Pettitte is not needed in game 6 but the Yankees still lose, he can back up Sabathia in game 7. Instead, Pettitte is being asked to do far more than he is likely capable of.
The Yankees only needed to win either game 5 or 6. They should have allowed Burnett has full rest and stacked him and Pettite in game 6.