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October 26, 2009

Prospectus Today

Turning the Trick in Six

by Joe Sheehan


For much of last night, it was 1996 again. Or 1998. Or maybe 2000. You had Andy Pettitte getting big outs, a deep lineup grinding away at an opposing starting pitcher, a key break going the Yankees' way, a crowd buzzing with confidence, eager to celebrate a clinching. Forget that it was a new building, or that the guy who got the biggest hit not so long ago contributed to a dark day in franchise history, or that the big plays were consecutive bunts, or that Mariano Rivera managed to give up a run. For one night, Aura and Mystique did a show in the Bronx, and when they were done, the World Series was coming home again.

For all the pregame discussion about possibly using CC Sabathia, Joe Girardi made the right decision in starting Andy Pettitte. The dropoff between the two over one game is small, and the Yankees' ability to start Sabathia against Cliff Lee Wednesday, and perhaps to use him three times in the World Series, is a key to their ability to beat the Phillies. Girardi didn't necessarily make the win-maximizing decision for one night, but he unquestionably made the championship-maximizing decision.

It didn't hurt that Pettitte pulled out a start from his dynasty days, pounding the strike zone and spending the whole night ahead of the Angels hitters. Of the 25 men Pettitte faced, 19 started out 0-1, and eight started 0-2. All told, Pettitte threw strikes on nearly two-thirds of his 99 pitches, scattering seven hits and walking one man. When he left in the seventh holding a 3-1 lead, you half expected to see Jeff Nelson come in and Bob Sheppard make the announcement.

Contrast Pettitte's work with that of Joe Saunders, a similar pitcher by type who on this night threw 83 pitches, 42 of them out of the strike zone. Saunders walked five and got strike three on exactly no one, the latter turning into a real problem for him during the game. Strikeout rate isn't just a predictor of longevity, it's a proxy for how much a pitcher can help himself. Saunders, who doesn't strike out many men, repeatedly started off 1-0 (15 of 22 batters), then would work the count to two strikes without being able to close things out. Saunders got just one swing-and-miss all night, and gave up two hits on 1-2 counts and two critical walks after getting two strikes on Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter in the fourth. The inability to put hitters away killed Saunders last night.

At that, Saunders allowed just three runs, a figure the Angels would have blown by in many games this season. In this postseason, however, the Angels have been killed by the inability of their table-setters to, well, set the table. Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu each did have a single last night, and each were involved in the Angels' two runs (Abreu driving in the first, Figgins scoring the second). But the Angels needed more from them, needed them on base more than once apiece. The two combined for a sub-.300 OBP, which is perhaps the biggest reason that the Angels lost this series.

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday T... (10/26)
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Premium Article Prospectus Today: Spee... (10/23)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Back... (10/28)
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Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: Los A... (10/27)

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