Playoff Prospectus: Ya... (10/07)
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October 7, 2009 Playoff ProspectusDodgers versus Cardinals LDS
Were it not for a 2-8 swoon over the Cardinals' final 10 games, the NL Division Series matchup between the Dodgers and the Cards could lay claim to pitting the team with the hottest first-half record (the blue team) against the one with the hottest second-half record (the red team). As it is, St. Louis still won the Central by the largest margin of any NL division champion (7½ games), turning what was once a crowded four-team race into a laugher thanks to some timely in-season upgrades, most notably the July 24 trade which brought Matt Holliday from Oakland—a point after which the Cards did have the league's best record (39-25). Of course, the Dodgers know a bit about late-season swoons, having lost a season-high five straight games in between clinching a spot in the playoffs on September 26 and wrapping up the NL West flag and home-field advantage throughout the first two rounds on October 3. The arc of their season follows former Yankee manager Ralph Houk's sage advice—"Get thirty games over .500 and you can break even the rest of the way"—almost to a T. They were 61-34 at the time of the Holliday trade, but a lethargic 34-33 afterwards, though they held sole possession of first place from April 19 onward, survived Manny Ramirez's suspension for violating MLB's drug policy unscathed, and spent most of the season atop the Prospectus Hit List thanks to the majors' best run differential (+169). The series has the distinction of pitting two of the top five managers of all time in terms of wins in Tony La Russa and Joe Torre (more on that below) and the two most successful franchises in National League history. Despite their success, the two teams have met just two other times in the playoffs, both of which saw the Cardinals beat the Dodgers en route to winning the pennant. The first and most famous one was in 1985, when Tommy Lasorda fatally chose to pitch to Jack Clark with a base open in the ninth inning of Game Six of the League Championship Series; Clark clubbed a three-run homer and sent the Cardinals to the second of three World Series they would reach on Herzog's watch. The second time they met was in 2004, when La Russa's club trampled Jim Tracy's squad in a four-game Division Series whose most notable highlight might have been providing the Dodgers' first post-season victory since the 1988 World Series clincher. In terms of more recent history, the Cardinals took the season series 5-2, beating the Dodgers three out of four times in LA just after the Holliday acquisition in late July, and then taking two of three in St. Louis in mid-August. Lineups Dodgers AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA VORP SS-S Rafael Furcal .269/.335/.375 .257 18.4 CF-R Matt Kemp .297/.352/.490 .298 49.6 RF-L Andre Ethier .272/.361/.508 .300 38.4 LF-R Manny Ramirez .290/.418/.531 .327 38.5 1B-L James Loney .281/.357/.399 .272 9.7 3B-R Casey Blake .280/.363/.468 .293 31.6 2B-R Ronnie Belliard* .277/.325/.451 .274 11.2 C-R Russell Martin .250/.352/.329 .251 7.5 Cardinals AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA VORP 2B-R Julio Lugo* .280/.352/.405 .278 14.7 SS-R Brendan Ryan .292/.340/.400 .266 17.5 1B-R Albert Pujols .327/.443/.658 .365 98.1 LF-R Matt Holliday .313/.394/.515 .317 59.1* RF-R Ryan Ludwick .265/.329/.447 .273 14.0 3B-R Mark DeRosa* .250/.319/.433 .265 12.4 C-R Yadier Molina .293/.366/.383 .274 24.6 CF-L Colby Rasmus .251/.307/.407 .252 7.5 *: Full-season stats
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
Jay, it's interesting that you give the Cardinals lineup the benefit of the doubt for playing in a pitcher's park, while ignoring that Dodger Stadium is just as much, if not more, of a pitcher's park.
Just because I didn't mention it in the course of a 5000 (?) word preview doesn't mean I haven't noted it, or given them the benefit of the doubt -- I did pick them to win, after all.
It's just that Dodger Stadium being a pitchers' park isn't news; it's been that way, to some extent, for nearly half a century, and as such, it's relatively common knowledge, whereas Busch is a much newer park, and that bore repeating, particularly in the context of the Cards' middle-of-the-pack scoring rate.
Fair enough. Sorry, I'm a little sensitive because so many others are picking the Cardinals, and making it seem like it won't be close.