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September 25, 2009

Kiss'Em Goodbye

Seattle Mariners

by Baseball Prospectus

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Baseball Prospectus' Pre-season Projection: 77-85, third place
Current record: 80-73, third place

The Sonics left. The Seahawks are aging. The Mariners are eh. There's always the Sounders, right?

Buster Olney of ESPN.com's Take

What went wrong: All things considered, it actually has been a good season for the Mariners in their first year under new GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu. They changed the culture of the clubhouse that had some serious fissures, the return of Ken Griffey, Jr. seemed to work out for everybody involved, Felix Hernandez evolved into the dominant pitcher everybody thought he might be one day, and they won many more games. After dropping 101 in 2008, the Mariners are in line to win 82-84 games this season, a heck of an improvement.

Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: But here was the really weird thing about their season-while having their resurgence, they didn't really build anything lasting; rather, they rode the surprise performances of veterans like Dave Aardsma and Russell Branyan. And now the Mariners will have to come face-to-face with the decision they have to make about King Felix: Should they give him CC Sabathia dollars, or forgo the possibility that he might walk away as a free agent after the 2011 season and just trade him now? It's not an easy call, because as all baseball saw with the Johan Santana situation, if you wait until the year before free agency, you probably aren't going to get great trade value in return. And the Mariners know, after flirting a bit around a possible Hernandez trade in July, that they can get a good package of players back. Signing Hernandez to a long-term deal could lock him down-but would also lock the organization into great risk. It won't be an easy call for the Mariners.

The Baseball Prospectus Take

Having failed to hit, pitch, or field in 2008, the Mariners lost 101 games despite having the ninth-highest payroll in the game. New general manager Jack Zduriencik made some canny moves to address these problems. Franklin Gutierrez has been a revelation in center field. The in-season disposal of Yuniesky Betancourt and subsequent acquisition of Pirates' shortstop Jack Wilson meant the replacement of an all-around non-entity with an above-average glove. The Mariners improved their American League standing in Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency from 12th in 2008 to first this year. The effect on the pitching staff has been obvious, particularly in the case of Cy Young candidate Felix Hernandez, who has seen the BABIP against him drop from .316 to .282. Zduriencik also rebuilt the bullpen, now headed by former busted 2003 first-rounder David Aardsma, who has been one of the most effective relievers in the game. Unfortunately, not even the successful gamble on Russell Branyan could create even an average offense-so while the M's stand first in the league in fewest runs allowed per game, they are last in the league in runs scored. They rank last in batting average, last in walks, last in on-base percentage, and .001 away from tying with Oakland for last in slugging. Still, an improvement of 18 wins (to date) is nothing to scoff at.-Steven Goldman, Baseball Prospectus

Key stat: 3

Three is the number of starting pitching spots the Mariners have turned over since their first trip through the rotation back in April. In truth, the number could be actually be 3.5, given that Ryan Rowland-Smith was away from the team from April 15 to July 24 with a disabled list stay and a demotion to the minors. While this season's improvement has been built on excellent starting pitching, the club finishes with Lucas French, Doug Fister and Ian Snell in place of Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard. Whatever their progress, they won't easily replicate the combined 216 innings and 2.71 ERA of the departed lefties.-Steven Goldman, Baseball Prospectus

ESPN.com Rumor Central

Free agency: If Seattle could deal with the trades of Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey, Jr., plus the slap-in-the-face free-agent defection of Alex Rodriguez, then surely they could absorb a king's ransom worth of talent in exchange for their own caliph, right? Maybe not. While the Mariners control Felix Hernandez for two years, they don't want to be in a situation like the Blue Jays were with Roy Halladay this year-uncertain of his willingness to stay, but not clear on what his price might be; beholden to both him and the rumor mill. Moreover, the fans adore the King, and the team feels this close to contending out west. Expect an aggressive push by Seattle-with Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson now accounting memories-to sign Hernandez, and if not, consider massive trade offers. The Red Sox want him dearly, but would have to ship Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, and at least one or two more top prospects. Our own Keith Law says they simply don't have the bounty.

Moves: Expect Seattle to re-up the bargain boys. By those we mean Russell Branyan, who took first base and ran with it to the tune of a .520 slugging percentage, and David Aardsma, who was quietly better than every closer in the AL outside of the Bronx. Then it's finding some more cheap offense. Expect the Mariners to call on Chone Figgins after that.

Who 2 Watch 4: 1B/CF Dustin Ackley

The second overall pick in the draft in June, Ackley signed for a $6 million bonus at the deadline. He's yet to swing a bat as a pro, but there is thought that he could move very quickly through the system and be in the majors by the end of next season. Primarily a first baseman in college due to elbow problems, he has the speed to play center and the power to pop out 20-25 home runs a year while hitting .300. Think a better pure hitter than Grady Sizemore with less power, because he has definite superstar potential.-Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Draft recap
Signed: 35 of 52
Spent: Just under $11 million
Hit: Dustin Ackley, CF (second overall). Seattle invested in a player that does at least a little of everything, and it's difficult to go wrong with that kind of talent. The M's also appear to have struck gold with James Jones, their fourth-round pick, who has caught the eye of scouts in the Northwest League as a bat, rather than as the left-handed pitcher he was so heavily scouted as this spring.
Miss: Steve Baron, C (33td overall). Baron is presently an all-glove, no-stick backstop who was selected ahead of left-hander Rex Brothers and third baseman Matt Davidson, among others, and signed for slightly above-slot money.-Jason A. Churchill, ESPN.com

The Bottom Line

The Mariners will free up some serious cash this offseason, as a number of expensive contracts will vanish in a puff of smoke. Over $30 million in savings will be realized just from the departures of Adrian Beltre, Miguel Batista, labrum case Bedard, and the presumed retirement of Junior Griffey. Endy Chavez will also be a free agent, as will Branyan, though the club might like to retain this last. This won't completely free Zduriencik of inherited oppressive contracts; Kenji Johjima and Carlos Silva will still be around for years. Still, this is a large chunk of change with which to reshape the club, and Zduriencik may need to utilize it to revitalize the offense given that near-term prospects such as Mike Carp, Matt Tuiasosopo, and Michael Saunders don't have the look of top-tier producers. That said, Zduriencik will have to proceed with caution, as the Mariners have far outplayed their projected record-with a run differential in negative territory. Given a "lucky" season and the uncertainty surrounding the new rotation, next year could see the Mariners fighting to consolidate the progress they made this season.-Steven Goldman, Baseball Prospectus

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

Related Content:  Seattle Mariners,  The Who,  Prospectus,  Mariners

13 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

ragerd


They could have drafted Stassi.

Sep 25, 2009 10:15 AM
rating: 7
 
brianpsmith
(832)

Strangely enough, this would have been a *good* time for Mr. Churchill to mention that the M's could have had Max Stassi, seeing as they took a different catcher in the sandwich round, yet nothing. Oh well.

Sep 25, 2009 16:40 PM
rating: 1
 
200tang

You do realize they gave Baron a pre-draft day deal, right?

Sep 26, 2009 00:16 AM
rating: -1
 
CRP13

Teams should ONLY draft catchers on draft day. Ever.

Sep 28, 2009 08:28 AM
rating: 0
 
awayish

Since when is playing for the team that drafted you a sacred duty, the violation of which is a “slap in the face” to presumably all things wholesome and good? Must be a world in which players happily volunteer to be drafted and rejoice in their privilege of negotiating with that special one team that will value them for the same reasons that their mommies love them.

/rant

Sep 25, 2009 13:02 PM
rating: -2
 
wnalyd

I think people are misunderstanding the M's right now. It really didn't matter that much that they had an anemic offense, because the defense was saving as much as a run a game more than a normal defense. You add that back into the run differential and all a sudden you have a balanced differential, which fits a team that will probably win 82 games this year.

What we're seeing with Zduriencik (and Tom Tango as the club stathead) is Moneyball being applied to defense. The M's outfield most of the year has been two CFs and a rotating set of LFs with good gloves (and Griffey, who shouldn't be allowed to field ever again). Put that sort of OF behind a flyball pitcher like Washburn, and suddenly the Tigers are overpaying for him and you're sitting on nice prospects while Washburn gets lit up in Detroit.

If Jack Z can ride the market inefficiency around defense a few more years, the M's will make the playoffs, and who knows? Maybe a World Series. There are a lot of things working against them, mainly the new MLB fielding data that will be like a Rosetta Stone to defensive analysis, but this isn't a dumb front office anymore, and this isn't a small market team.

I do look forward to whomever actually succeeds in acquiring King Felix discovering that not only are they losing multiple grade-A prospects, they also get Carlos Silva's boat anchor contract to eat.

Sep 25, 2009 15:25 PM
rating: 1
 
LouisArighi

I'm not quite following: are you suggesting that the Mariners' defense is so good that it allowed fewer runs than it allowed? How do you "add that back into the run differential"? Isn't their great defense the reason the "runs allowed" part of their run differential is so low?

Sep 28, 2009 15:11 PM
rating: 0
 
wnalyd

Dave Cameron explains it better than I can using WAR:
http://ussmariner.com/2009/10/05/war-and-the-2009-mariner/

Oct 06, 2009 15:36 PM
rating: 0
 
ScottyB

The trouble with "constantly rebuilding teams" is that they always trade the King Felix for some other young pitchers, getting lesser and lesser results each time (see A's, Oakland). At some point, you have to invest in high-impact expensive players, and I see few more worthy of that investment than the King (and, as stated earlier, the Ms are NOT a small-market club)

Sep 25, 2009 22:49 PM
rating: -1
 
awayish

problem with investing in defense is that, based on anecdotal recollection, i don't think defense is as stable a skill as on-base ability. you see guys who were good defensive players early in their careers lose a step later on, yet still keep their reputation and inflated value.

Sep 26, 2009 08:26 AM
rating: 0
 
klouvan2

the other problem in building around defense is that, at least as i understand it, an above average defender will always save fewer runs than an above average hitter creates. there just aren't enough opportunities to make superlative defensive plays as there are opportunities to contribute with the bat.

since players who can both hit and field at an above average level are extremely rare, it would seem that a team built around defense might have a difficult time putting together an offense potent enough to contend.

Sep 26, 2009 09:46 AM
rating: 1
 
WilliamWilde

Still have no idea why the M's didn't trade Branyan at the height of his career value (he is 33 at this point) at the deadline. The Giants, Red Sox, and/or Twins could have used an impact bat at that point.? Most likely he'd still be available as a free agent to bring back in '10 if they wanted.? Anyone?

Sep 28, 2009 11:04 AM
rating: 0
 
larlaro

I don't understand how you can write an article about the 2009 Seattle Mariners and not mention Ichiro Suzuki once, positive or negative? Does PECOTA really ignore him that much still?!

Sep 28, 2009 15:13 PM
rating: 1
 
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