Checking the Numbers: ... (08/24)
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August 25, 2009 Future ShockThe Alex Gordon Problem
It wasn't that long ago, but Royals third baseman Alex Gordon used to be the next big thing. In 2005, he won nearly every individual award handed out in college baseball, batting .372/.518/.715 during his junior year at Nebraska while also showing enough athleticism to add 23 stolen bases in 26 attempts. "I thought he would be a superstar coming out of college," said one front-office official. He was not alone, as the Royals made him the second overall pick in the 2005 draft, after the Diamondbacks selected Justin Upton. The following year, in his professional full-season debut, he earned Texas League Player of the Year honors at Double-A, batting .325/.427/.588, while seemingly getting better as the season wore on, as in the last two months of the year, he hit .357 with 19 home runs and 67 RBI in 59 games. People were comparing him to George Brett, and it didn't seem like hyperbole. Fast-forward to three years later, and Gordon finds himself back at Triple-A Omaha after a move the Royals describe as temporary, and designed partially to "put some joy back in the game" for Gordon. Temporary or no, he has clearly not lived up to expectations. It's difficult to pin down why. "He was as close to a can't-miss [prospect] as there could be," said one scouting director. "But as we both know, there is no such thing in baseball." So what went wrong? "I'm not sure what we all missed on," said another official. "It's just tough to say." However, in talk to numerous insiders, most hypotheses revolve around not enough or even bad player development. Gordon's first full year in the minor leagues was also his last, as he was the Royals' starting third baseman on Opening Day 2007. "My only thought [as to what went wrong] is that he was rushed up there pretty quickly," said one scouting director. "Then he was expected to anchor the middle of the order, which is tough for any young player." Another front-office official echoed this same lament. "Forget the performance, the decorations, the hype," said one team official. "How many really good players can you name who had less than 500 at-bats at the minor league level? Think about prospects that you think were rushed even, and you'll see that most had more minor league games than that."
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I don't buy that he was rushed (or rather, that the rushing was the cause of his problems; he obviously ascended quickly); He was awesome in AA, with the only possible point of concern being a slightly elevated K% at 19.6%. The quotes from the FOTs in this article reek of post hoc analysis: "He hasn't been as good as we thought, ergo it's because he was rushed."
For comparison, look at Matt Wieters this year, who came into the season with a pretty analogous track record to the pre-2007 Gordon. When the Orioles sent him to AAA to start the year, the general consensus was that he should be starting in the MLB and the Orioles only optioned him to delay his service clock. Players of this caliber only get to be "rushed" after the fact. Would 200-300 PA in AAA made some kind of huge difference for Gordon? I find that unlikely.
He struggled his rookie year, was a slightly above average hitter last year, and got injured/sucked for less than 100 ABs this year. Not everyone tears the world apart immediately like Ryan Braun, and think the rumors of Gordon's demise have been greatly exaggerated. The last two paragraphs of the article are the most on point, me thinks.