CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
The Week in Quotes: Au... (08/10)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Prospectus (08/10)

August 10, 2009

A Talent Drought

Missing Men Up the Middle?

by Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Sure, Ryan Braun is cocky, but he tends to back it up when he steps to the plate. One aspect of the game that Braun is not cocky about-and with good reason-is his defense. A shortstop at the University of Miami, Braun was initially moved to third base as a pro, but that lasted all of 112 games in the big leagues before he went to the defensive wasteland of left field. The frustrating thing for many is that on a pure athleticism and tools level, Braun has everything required to be a solid if not an above-average player at the hot corner, but his defense has always, even in the outfield, been best described as indifferent.

He's certainly not the only prospect to befall such a fate. In the ten-year period from 1997-2006, 20 players were drafted in the first and supplemental first round as third basemen, but of those twenty, less than half (nine, to be exact) stayed at the position as professionals. That said, the position has created a surprising number of great players, as of the nine, four (Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman) have become stars, and two (Alex Gordon and Ian Stewart) still have a chance to join that group. Among those who had to move, the list includes Pat Burrell, Mark Teixeira, and Billy Bulter in addition to Braun.

The lesson to take from that fact is that if you can mash, they'll find a position for you, but for some inside the game who are responsible for finding new talent, there is a bigger issue here: some believe that true left-side infielders are more hard to find than ever. The problem is even more profound at shortstop; fewer seem to be available with each passing year, as baseball has seen a steady decline in merely the number of shortstops selected in the draft:


        Shortstops Taken In Picks
Years     1-100    1-50    1-10
1965-69    16.2     9.2     1.8
1970-79    14.0     8.2     1.8
1980-89    13.6     6.7     2.1
1990-99    11.8     6.0     1.2
2000-09    10.6     5.3     1.1

Beyond the numbers of shortstops themselves is the fact that the position itself is often a misnomer. The best athlete at most high schools is usually the shortstop, but that rarely means it's a legitimate reflection of those players' eventual position; it's easy to forget that even Gorman Thomas was drafted as a shortstop. In draft history, 581 shortstops have been drafted among the first 100 selections; of those, 116 had major league careers spanning 500 or more games, but just 46 spent the majority of their career actually at shortstop. Put more simply, only about two out of every 25 players drafted as shortstops in the first 100 picks had anything resembling a career there.

The reasons for the decline are numerous. The loss of athletes to sports like basketball, football, and soccer continues to be an issue, and there's also now a mindset for many teams that tells them that up-the-middle players are better sourced from the international market, specifically Latin America. However, one scouting director noted that there's more of a lack of focus on the position itself when in comes to player development for young players in North America. "Part of the problem is that the kinds of players that play shortstop in college and high school aren't the kind of players that we see as playing there in the big leagues," one scouting director explained. "Often it's not the best athlete as much as it's the steadiest fielder playing there; we see that all the time, even in college, so often what teams are doing doesn't match what we're looking for."

Even more jarring is just the lack of work done on fielding itself. "It's an issue across baseball," the scout explained. "You go to a high school baseball game, and guys can't even play catch.  I know it sounds stupid, but when I was a kid, we played catch every day in our front yards, and now kids go to the cage and then go home and turn on their PlayStation. Defense is the last thing kids worry about these days, and it's very evident."

Five Prospects Who Might Have To Move (Or Have Already)

As has been noteed, Braun certainly isn't the only one out there who can't play the position he was drafted at. Here are five highly regarded prospects with the bat who leave plenty of questions on the defensive side of things:

  1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates: The second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alvarez' bat has come alive at Double-A Altoona, but he's already committed 20+ errors in barely more than 100 games at the hot corner, and weighing in at nearly 240 pounds, his range is more than a bit limited.

  2. Todd Frazier, 2B, Reds: Originally drafted as a shortstop in 2007 out of Rutgers, Frazier has proven that he can hit at every level (he's currently at Double-A), but he's also been tried at nearly every position; after staying a shortstop during his pro debut, he's played at first base, third, and the outfield. Moved to second for the first time late last month, the Reds hope that he can find a comfort level there in order to developed into a Jeff Kent-esque player.

  3. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers: Primarily a third baseman with Canada's national youth teams, the Brewers initially announced that Lawrie would be developed as a catcher when he signed, but that idea was tossed aside before he played a game there, and his defense at second this year has been quite poor. When one scout was asked what position he profiled Lawrie at for the future, he said, "Hitter."

  4. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs: The top prospect in the Cubs' system as well as the third overall pick in the 2007 draft, Vitters is a wonderful hitter, but at third base his footwork and athleticism make him look downright clumsy at times, and his career fielding percentage at the position in under .900. Many scouts think he'll get better, but in a Jim Thome/Shea Hillenbrand kind of way, where he can at least get to the big leagues at the position, but he doesn't subsequently stay there for long.

  5. Brett Wallace, 3B, Athletics: The big prize in the Matt Holiday trade, Wallace is an on-base machine (fitting in perfectly with the A's style) with decent power, but defensively, he's very hard to get a good a read on. Unlike Braun, he's extremely sound fundamentally, with good hands and a solid arm, but his bulky build and well below-average speed had one scout comparing his lateral movement to that of a lawn ornament.

Thanks to Dan Malkiel for his research assitance.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Shortstop,  The Who

16 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

tjmaccarone

I had always thought Teixera moved to first base because the Rangers had him and Blalock, and just thought Blalock was the better glove, and not because they thought Teixera couldn't handle third in the big leagues. He's a superb defensive firstbaseman.



Aug 10, 2009 10:03 AM
rating: 2
 
baserip4

I seem to remember him being a solid defender in college, but this report indicates that even when he played in the AFL there were concerns over his 3B defense.

http://www.minorleaguewatch.com/AZFall/fin-02alw.html

Aug 10, 2009 10:34 AM
rating: 0
 
tjmaccarone

But the article also says that he played well defensively that fall. I think he could have been at least acceptable at third if they'd stuck with him there. I think the same goes for Pujols, actually.

Aug 10, 2009 10:49 AM
rating: 0
 
eighteen

Pujols' elbow wouldn't have held up at third.

Aug 10, 2009 11:40 AM
rating: 3
 
tjmaccarone

You're right, of course, but I think he would have been a decent third baseman until the elbow gave out.

Aug 11, 2009 11:57 AM
rating: 0
 
wonkothesane1

You could make a similar case for Burrell. He was initially moved to 1B because Gold Glover Scott Rolen was at 3B. He then moved to LF after the Curt Schilling trade to make room for Travis Lee at 1B.

I'm not sure either story has much bearing, since that section of the article is just pointing out top hitters who changed positions. There's a possible implication that these players were moved for issues similar to Braun's, but including defensive studs like David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Mark Teixeira leads me to believe that he's not trying to say that these guys moved because they are indifferent to defense. He's just pointing out that they did indeed move.

Aug 10, 2009 10:56 AM
rating: 1
 
tjmaccarone

You could only really make a similar case for Burrell if he had turned out to be any good defensively at the other positions. Rolen gave them two reasons to move Burrell to a less demanding position instead of just one.

Aug 11, 2009 11:55 AM
rating: 0
 
toni

...a lawn ornament?

ouch. Hopefully he's not that bad, because as your article states along with the rest of the league, the A's have a derth of true third base (and shortstop) prospects in their system right now.

Aug 10, 2009 10:31 AM
rating: 0
 
Mike W
(830)

Well, he was probably compared favorably to the lawn ornament.

Aug 10, 2009 12:01 PM
rating: 4
 
JoeSky60

The lawn ornament comment reminds me of Ron Santo. He absolutely sucked up everything he could reach, but he couldn't reach very far.

Aug 10, 2009 11:24 AM
rating: 0
 
David Coonce

After reading this, I guess I can understand why guys like Angel Berroa keep finding work.

Aug 10, 2009 12:12 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Exactly.

Aug 10, 2009 14:37 PM
 
Darsox64

Can't this difficulty be better described analytically/economically?

-We just exited a period that saw a historically significant number of excellent hitting SS who could more than adequately handle the position. It shouldn't be surprising that it was an abberation.

-The free fall down the defensive spectrum for so many prospects can be understood as the quality of play ever increasing. The better the quality of play gets, the harder it is for players to dominate every aspect of the game. As the average player gets better and better, teams need to begin to accept offensive/defensive tradeoffs in filling spots of their lineups. The athletic requirements on the left side of the infield have gone so high that it's just not that easy to find a guy who can man SS and put up a .725 OPS. I think there is pretty strong anecdotal evidence that this is systemic and not about losing athletes to other sports or the failure of colleges/high schools. That being, the two Matsui's that arrived from Japan. One was a topnotch CF who immediate become a fringey left fielder and then a DH. The other was supposedly a gold glove SS who instead couldn't really handle the position in MLB. Ichiro! lived up to expectations, but one player who meets them doesn't explain why the defensive of highly regarded players all of a sudden are barely adequate at their positions. This seems very analogous to what is happening to prospects; when push comes to shove, defense is put first.

Aug 10, 2009 15:09 PM
rating: 0
 
tjmaccarone

Hideki Matusi really was a good defensive outfielder when he arrived here. He just got older and slower.

Aug 11, 2009 11:52 AM
rating: 0
 
Darsox64

When he was 29 years old? He didn't start breaking down until 2006. The Yankees moved Bernie Williams out of center for Johnny Damon (who was subsequently moved to left himself), but no ever spoke of it when they signed Matsui.

Aug 12, 2009 01:00 AM
rating: 0
 
John Collins
(110)

I wonder if the drop in shortstops (as a percentage of the draft) is in part due to the much larger pitching staffs today. The 9 man staff of the 1960s is now 12 or 13 men. I wonder if the drop in shortstops would look as dramatic if we just looked at position players.

Aug 13, 2009 14:58 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
The Week in Quotes: Au... (08/10)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Prospectus (08/10)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 24
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: Carlos Rodon and the White Sox...
Eyewitness Accounts: April 24, 2015
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: Of Signals and Sausages
Raising Aces: Debut Ante: Raisel Iglesias
Painting the Black: No D In Desmond?
BP Bronx

MORE FROM AUGUST 10, 2009
Under The Knife: Big Things
Premium Article Transaction Action: Brew'd-up Reunion
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Rumble in the Bronx
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
Premium Article Changing Speeds: Twin City Triplets
Premium Article Transaction Prospectus
The Week in Quotes: August 2-9

MORE BY KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
2009-08-12 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 12
2009-08-11 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 11
2009-08-10 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
2009-08-10 - Premium Article A Talent Drought
2009-08-10 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 10
2009-08-07 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 7
2009-08-06 - Future Shock: Getting Dealt
More...


INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2009-08-11 - Premium Article You Could Look It Up: On Droughts and Drafts