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July 2, 2009

The Latin Talent Market

D-Day

by Kiley McDaniel

While tradition would say that it’s technically ridiculous to post July 2^nd signing-related notes and predictions until after the signing period has opened, this year is playing out uniquely. It appears that many players will be waiting a day or two later to agree to contracts, with some waiting a week or two, for various reasons I’ll cover below. If anything, July 2^nd appears to be the day that all the done deals that have been reported for weeks will be official, along with a couple of surprises, but it will not be the cavalcade of information you might expect. On top of that, it’s notoriously difficult to even get lists of who signed with each club on July 2^nd; a few teams will have press releases, a few don’t mind leaking a list, but the vast majority don’t want the information out there for some reason.

I say all this to temper your enthusiasm for July 2^nd day-of coverage. There will be lists and names and bonuses and some breaking news, but not quite as much as you may be expecting. The market was slow to develop this year, and a number of clubs and agents are unsure of how money will be spent and just need a few days to hammer things out, along with some ongoing age-related investigations that need to conclude (including that of Miguel Sano). What’s the reason for the later decisions by clubs and agents? This is the biggest market of active teams July 2^nd has ever seen, along with a recession that has messed with club’s budgets and changed expectations on the fly. You also can’t ignore the heightened awareness of age falsification, with many players being suspended even recently. One insider described the situation by noting, "A few guys from last year’s class were outed as being older in the last few weeks and now these teams are thinking twice about walking down the aisle with this year’s crop unless they’re absolutely certain of the age."

From back when I was posting scouting reports and video, I admitted that the lists were always fluid. Rather than giving updates every time a new name or shift in my rankings came up, I kept it to myself, so I could unveil an update just before the signing flurry would commence. So, without further adieu, here’s a rundown of what to expect from my edited top players list, ranked by expected bonus.

1. Miguel Sano, SS, Dominican Republic: Sano is still in a tough situation to figure out, but it does seem to be generally agreed within the industry that he won’t sign for at least a few days after July 2^nd, likely about a week or so. It's also agreed that the final three suitors are Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Baltimore. The wait is for clubs to see the final results of MLB’s ongoing investigation of Sano's birth date, and while a few teams are happy with the outcomes of their own investigations, it can’t hurt to be a little extra-extra sure. Industry predictions about his price still run anywhere from $3.5 million to $4.5 million, though most seem to guess the final bonus will be about $3.75 million. That seems a little low given all the hype about Sano breaking Michael Ynoa’s record $4.25 million bonus, but very few people think record-breaking money is out there. Agent Rob Plummer probably likes it this way, as he’s consistently beat expectations in situations like this, such as last year, when he got $2.55 million for outfielder Rafael Rodriguez from the Giants, higher than anyone expected.

2. Wagner Mateo, OF, Dominican Republic: In previous weeks Mateo was said to be a strong lean to the Cardinals (with the Giants and Cubs also in play) and was mentioned here last week to be dancing around a $3 million bonus with St. Louis. Sources have confirmed since then that a deal for $3.1 million was struck and will be signed today.