CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Q&A: Drew S... (06/07)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-week ... (06/03)
Next Column >>
Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-Week ... (06/10)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Idol: Round... (06/07)

June 7, 2009

On the Beat

Sunday Summary

by John Perrotto

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

The days of the late-spring/early-summer trade have all but disappeared since the advent of the wild card, with every team potentially able to entertain the idea that it's in contention until at least the All-Star break. The Braves and Pirates brought back the early-season dealing this past Wednesday, however, and there is a feeling throughout baseball that more will be coming before the end of the month.

The general feeling is that Braves general manager Frank Wren set an aggressive tone by striking quickly in an attempt to stay within range of the Phillies and Mets in the National League by acquiring center fielder Nate McLouth for three minor leaguers. "I have to give Frank a lot of credit," Pirates GM Neal Huntington said. "He was very proactive in an attempt to improve his team early in the season, and he was willing to give up three very good young players to get a very talented player in Nate McLouth."

Atlanta acquired McLouth to take over in center field for rookie Jordan Schafer, who was overmatched in his first taste of the major leagues with a .219 EqA. McLouth, meanwhile, has a .289 EqA, easily the best in a Braves' outfield that includes left fielder Garret Anderson (.233) and right fielder Jeff Francoeur (.219).

The Braves gave up right-hander Charlie Morton (4.14 DERA at Triple-A Gwinnett), center fielder Gorkys Hernandez (.207 EqA at Double-A Mississippi), and left-hander Jeff Locke (5.48 DERA at High-A Myrtle Beach). Hernandez was ranked as the Braves' fourth-best prospect by BP's Kevin Goldstein coming into the season, and 78th overall. "A week ago I didn't expect to be able to make a deal for a bat this early," said Wren. "I thought it would be later in June or July at the very earliest."

What made McLouth particularly attractive to the Braves is that he signed a three-year, $15.75 million contract in February that includes a club option for 2012. "This happening this early is opportune for us, because it gives us a lot more of the season to put our team together, and gives us a chance to win games," Wren said. "This is not to rent a guy for a year. This is not to get a guy who's going to be a free agent. This is a guy that's going to be here for four years. That makes all the difference in the world."

The Pirates don't figure to be done dealing; after 16 consecutive losing seasons, and even after last year's deals and now this one, they're still looking to restock a farm system shy on talent. The Pirates are willing to trade such veterans as first baseman Andy LaRoche, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, and shortstop Jack Wilson, and they would consider moving left-handers Paul Maholm and Zach Duke and closer Matt Capps if they could get a return similar to what they did for McLouth. "This was probably the toughest decision I've had to make during my time with the Pirates," said Huntington, who was hired late in the 2007 season. "Nate is everything you could ask for, a quality person and a quality player. It was not easy to trade someone like him. However, these are the tough decisions you have to make if you want to build not only a championship-level organization but one that can consistently compete at that level. When you look at the good teams, they have many above-average players, and that's what we are trying to bring into our organization. This trade gives us a chance to bring in three players who have a chance to be very good at the major league level."

Athletics left fielder Matt Holliday is most likely to be next big name traded. GM Billy Beane acquired Holliday from the Rockies in an off-season trade in hopes of making a run at the American League West title with the option to let the slugger walk as a free agent at season's end, but the Athletics are 24-30 and in last place in the division, 7 games behind the Rangers.

Keep in mind that Beane traded right-hander Rich Harden to the Cubs last year on July 8 when the Athletics were six games out. "I'm not going to be mad either way, let's just say that," Holliday said this week when asked about the possibility of being traded. "I'll be OK to stay and play it out and see what happens, or if Billy thinks he can get a couple of good players for me and give me a chance to play in the postseason, I'll be OK with that, too."

While the last-place Indians stop short of saying they're out of contention, they are 24-34 and seven games out in the AL Central, and there are indications that GM Mark Shapiro is about to become a seller. While he would have to be overwhelmed to trade left-hander Cliff Lee, Mark DeRosa could be available because of his impending free agency, and he would likely draw plenty of interest because of his ability to play multiple positions.

The Nationals and Orioles also could make some early trades. Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson and outfielder Josh Willingham are both available, and Orioles first baseman Aubrey Huff would be an attractive option for a contender looking for a power bat at either infield corner. The Orioles would also trade right-hander Jeremy Guthrie for the right price.

---

The Giants' Randy Johnson became the 24th pitcher to win 300 games this past Thursday, and many observers believe he'll be the last to reach that milestone because of the development of five-man rotations, pitch counts, and bullpen specialists. Rangers president Nolan Ryan, a member of the 300-win club, is among that group. "With the way pitching is being used nowadays, I think it probably lessens the chance of it," said Ryan. "I think there's some validity to that sentiment, because every time you go to the pen, it increases the chances of losing the game. There's a chance one of those guys won't be on that day, and it takes the decision out of that particular starter's hands."

No active pitcher is close to 300; only three have as many as 200 victories: the Phillies' Jamie Moyer (250), the Yankees' Andy Pettitte (220), and John Smoltz of the Red Sox (210). Moyer is 46, Smoltz is 42, and Pettitte is 36.

Ryan feels that if other organizations follow what he is doing with the Rangers, then there could be more 300-game winners. The Rangers are allowing their minor league starters to work with higher pitch counts, and Ryan is also open to the idea of a four-man rotation. "Whether they start using starters differently because pitching is at such a premium, I don't know," Ryan said. "If baseball changes its attitude about how they're using starting pitching, there's probably a better chance that it might happen."

Meanwhile, Moyer got his 250th win last Sunday by beating the Nationals, and it was truly a testament to his determination, since 216 of those victories have come since he turned 30, and that was after having already been released three times. "I've always felt a burning desire to play," said Moyer. "In those years, I really looked at is as, 'You're going to have to strip the uniform off my back.' I've been released a couple of times. Well, you know what? That just fueled the fire for me a little bit more."

Even Moyer's father-in-law, ESPN basketball analyst and former Notre Dame coach Digger Phelps, suggested he should find a new line of work. "As usual, I didn't listen to him," Moyer kidded. "I'm glad I'm not a basketball player. And I'm assuming a lot of his basketball players didn't, either."

---

Astros owner Drayton McLane has often said that the word "rebuilding" isn't in his vocabulary, and he continues to hold to the hope that his team can make it to the postseason this year even though it is 24-30 and last in the NL Central at eight games out. "I'd be real disappointed if we didn't make the playoffs," McLane said. "I was convinced when [GM] Ed Wade put the team together that it would be a very competitive team with the Cubs and Cardinals. But I haven't given up yet."

McLane said that the Astros won't trade right-hander Roy Oswalt and first baseman Lance Berkman, two players who could bring back a considerable return, but for the first time he is admitting that the Astros may have no choice but to retrench at some point, even saying he's excited about the potential of Triple-A Round Rock pitchers Bud Norris and Yorman Bazardo and what his organization might do in the draft this upcoming week. "We have to make a stronger investment and smarter picks in the draft," McLane said. "You've got to invest in young talent. To do that, you need patience, and that's hard for me. From my business training, you want results very quickly. That doesn't always happen in baseball. We spend $4 million to $6 million in the draft every year, but we haven't always made good decisions."

McLane's hesitancy to rebuild stems from watching other franchises that seem to be perpetually in that situation. "I've always understood that we need to get younger at some point, but look at teams that rebuild," McLane said. "Look at Pittsburgh. They haven't had a winning season in [16] years. Look at Cincinnati and Kansas City."

---

It was one month ago today that Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games by Major League Baseball after having tested positive for steroids, yet the Dodgers are still in control of the NL West with a 39-19 record, the best in the major leagues. Dodgers manager Joe Torre says that he should be blamed if the Dodgers aren't still on top of the division when Ramirez returns on July 3. "I don't know how many we'll be ahead, but if anything goes back, I screwed up, no question," Torre said.

The Dodgers have not been quite as good without Ramirez. They were 21-8 and hitting .283/.376/.426 with Ramirez on the roster, but they've gone 18-10 and hit .279/.348/.388 since he was suspended, though they have increased their lead by 2 games since the suspension took effect, as they were 6 games up on May 7. "We're doing little stuff, which is good," said Torre. "That's what we talked about all spring. The lineup we put out there, to me, is still deep. When you have a Matt Kemp hitting seventh in the lineup, that's a pretty good lineup."

---

Major League Rumors and Rumblings: The Tigers are interested in trading for Mets catcher Brian Schneider and having him share time behind the plate with Gerald Laird. ... The Giants have interest in the Pirates' Adam LaRoche. ... Left-hander Tom Glavine is undecided about continuing his career after being released by the Braves this past week. ... Rays closer Troy Percival is now leaning toward trying to return this season from his shoulder injury rather than retiring, while Phillies left-handed reliever Scott Eyre expects this to be his last season.

---

Some interesting facts:

  • Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez's 20 home runs through the end of the May were the most in franchise history, surpassing the 17 hit by Nate Colbert in 1970 and by Greg Vaughn in 1998.

  • Mariners right fielder Ichiro Suzuki led the major leagues with 49 hits in May. Suzuki has led a calendar month in hits 12 times during his nine-year career, while no other active player has accomplished the feat more than twice.

  • Terry Francona became just the third manager to win 500 games with the Red Sox on Tuesday, joining Joe Cronin (1,071) and Pinky Higgins (560).

  • Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter scored his 1,500th career run in his 2,035th game on Tuesday. Just four players have reached that milestone faster since the expansion era began in 1961: Rickey Henderson (1,891), Alex Rodriguez (1,903), Mickey Mantle (1,949), and Willie Mays (2,009). Jeter also became the fourth player in history to play 1,500 games at shortstop and score 1,500 runs, joining Bill Dahlen, Honus Wagner, and Cal Ripken Jr.

  • Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum recorded his 500th career strikeout in his 69th start on Tuesday. Just five pitchers since 1900 have reached that mark in fewer starts: Dwight Gooden (61), Hideo Nomo (66), Kerry Wood (66), Mark Prior (67), and Herb Score (68).

  • Schafer had started each of the Braves' first 48 games before being optioned to Gwinnett on Tuesday. That was the longest streak to begin a season in a player's debut year since Shea Hillenbrand started 51 in a row for the 2001 Red Sox. It was the longest NL streak since 1969, when Coco Laboy started 79 straight for the Expos and Ted Sizemore started 60 consecutive games for the Dodgers.

  • Phillies left fielder Raul Ibanez had 51 RBI in the team's 50 games. That is the most RBI in the first 50 games of a season by a Phillies player since Don Hurst also had 51 in 1932.

---

Three series to watch this week, with probable pitching matchups:

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see John's other articles. You can contact John by clicking here

15 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

cbirkemeier

"I'd be real disappointed if we didn't make the playoffs," [Astros owner Drayton] McLane said. The PECOTA version of the postseason odds report has the Astros at a 1.56% chance of making the playoffs. Prepare to be disappointed Drayton.

Joe Torre: "When you have a Matt Kemp hitting seventh in the lineup, that's a pretty good lineup." That or bad lineup construction, take your pick.

Jun 07, 2009 10:57 AM
rating: 2
 
Dougie4512

The lineup construction isn't that bad (or that important maybe?) if the Dodgers are as far as up as they are. Argue the merits of advanced metrics all you want, but Torre is doing a good job in L.A. and if that lineup is working to the tune of winning 2 of every 3 games, there's no need to change it.

Drayton McLane's comments...well that's a different story...

Jun 07, 2009 12:16 PM
rating: -3
 
CubsSchwin

This is a poor argument. No matter how well a team is doing, citing their success does not preclude the argument that they could be doing even better.

Jun 08, 2009 07:35 AM
rating: 1
 
Dougie4512

Citing their success absolutely matters. Kemp hitting 7th may not be why they're winning. Kemp hitting 7th may not be optimal from a sabermetric perspective. However, maybe Torre has found that he wants someone in the 7 hole to drive in runs since he has a high OBP, low SLG guy in the 5 hole with Ramirez out? He's thinking he'll let Kemp sit down there and drive guys in because the table is set for him. Maybe it's a personal comfort level where Torre thinks Kemp is more relaxed hitting lower in the order. Maybe it's none of those things. I don't see any reason to change the batting order when things are going as well as they have so far.

It may not be statistically optimal, but managers have to deal with human beings too, not just the stat sheet. I may be only a lowly high school manager, but there are real cause and effect relationships when you move guys up and down the order when the team is having great success. I'm very much on board with the importance of OBP, SLG, range factors, UZR, and the like, but sometimes I think people on this site underrate the human side of things because they can't be measured.

If the Dodgers drop 8 of 9, Torre will likely be willing to shake things up--he did last year. Kemp moved up and down the order like a pogo stick; Ethier hit anywhere from 2-6 if my mind serves me correctly. Torre's a good manager who consistently wins with good talent. Who cares if Matt Kemp is hitting 7th?

Jun 08, 2009 12:23 PM
rating: 1
 
eighteen

McLane said. "I was convinced when [GM] Ed Wade put the team together that it would be a very competitive team..."

Fail.

said Ryan. "...because every time you go to the pen, it increases the chances of losing the game."

Exhibit B (behind Joe Morgan) that being a great player doesn't require actually knowing anything about the game.

Setting aside the why of it, what do you give up to get Brian Schneider? A box of Cracker Jacks? Or is that too much?

Jun 07, 2009 12:20 PM
rating: 2
 
Dougie4512

I agree with Ryan to a point, at least on the macro level. The less you go to a pen, the more you can avoid your worst relievers. If you've used your bullpen for 3+ innings 4 games in a row, somewhere in there you likely will have to use a low-leverage reliever in a high-leverage situation. However, if you've received 7-8 innings out of your starters for 4 games in a row, now if you're down 4-3 in the 6th you can go to a set-up guy as opposed to a poorer option.

That, and saying Nolan Ryan doesn't know what he's talking about pitching is ludicrous. If there's one thing he knows, it's pitching and it certainly looks like his pitchers are buying into his philosophy. Whether or not you agree with the philosophy is up for debate, but so far it certainly looks like they are getting results (his pitchers are going deeper into the game...they're taxing the bullpen less...they're using a good offense to supplement what pitching deficiencies they have to win ballgames. Yes we're only one-third of a year into the experiment, but it looks successful so far.

Jun 07, 2009 13:09 PM
rating: 3
 
Matt Kory

Knowing how to pitch, and knowing how to chose pitchers for a big league team are two completely different things.

Jun 07, 2009 17:25 PM
rating: 0
 
Dougie4512

We're not talking about choosing pitchers; we're talking about usage of pitchers. If you have the worst 11th and 12th men in the league on your staff (in this era of 12 man staffs) and don't have to go to them unless you're up 7 or down 7 because your starters consistently give you length, you'll have a good staff. If you have to use your good 11th and 12th men more (relative to the league average) versus having to stretch a starter out to get another couple outs consistently, I'll take my chances with the starter.

The key is the conditioning before the season. I've seen guys jump 4-8 (yes 8) MPH in 9 months in high school with a core-dominant training routine, throwing more, and pitching less. Yes, physical maturity comes into play too, but these are guys going from 77-79 to 83-86. That's a huge leap. If Ryan and his system can get major leaguers' arms and cores stronger, then why couldn't they throw longer in a game?

I don't think it's just "choose the right guy" versus the "choose the right method of training." It's both...and they must be choosing some of the right guys because Rangers' pitching and defense (yes, the defense is a huge upgrade) has been better this year than in past years.

Jun 08, 2009 12:15 PM
rating: 1
 
Schere

His statement is pretty straightforwardly testable, eight

Jun 08, 2009 08:11 AM
rating: 0
 
jtrichey



I think Ryan might know a thing about pitching, and I am very interested to see if he can reverse the trend of starters throwing fewer and fewer innings. Eighteen, I think you are the one that might need to get a clue here.

Jun 07, 2009 16:40 PM
rating: -1
 
SirVLCIV

I'd be really interested in seeing if he can do it, and if Holland, Feliz, and the like put up solid careers, or if they're guaranteed to have arm injuries in the future.

The Blue Jays don't baby their young pitchers. We've seen what that's led to...

Jun 07, 2009 17:34 PM
rating: 2
 
eighteen

Read what he said. He said going to the bullpen increases your chances of losing EVERY TIME. That is so obviously untrue only an idiot couldn't see it - which I suppose explains why you missed it.

Jun 08, 2009 12:46 PM
rating: -1
 
Dougie4512

That couldn't be hyperbole?

Either way, I want that mindset from a starting pitcher. That's what Ryan was; that's how he thinks. I love it.

Jun 08, 2009 18:16 PM
rating: 0
 
hyprvypr
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

East coast, east coast, east coast....


rumormill:

some West coast pitcher clearly going to some east coast team...

some West coast pitcher clearly going to some east coast team...

some West coast slugger clearly going to some east coast team...

some terrible, no-chance west coast team has all their players, GMs and pretty women available to any east coast team, even if they are mediocre and barely a playoff threat, etc.

Jun 07, 2009 19:45 PM
rating: -13
 
Evan
(47)

Ichiro also holds the major league record for most 50-hit months, and is the only player in history to have more than one 50-hit month in a single season (he had two in 2004).

Jun 07, 2009 19:46 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Q&A: Drew S... (06/07)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-week ... (06/03)
Next Column >>
Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-Week ... (06/10)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Idol: Round... (06/07)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Some Projection Left: Ask The Industry: Seco...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: July 3, 2015
Premium Article Weekly Wrap: July 3, 2015
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: The Variation of All Things
Premium Article What You Need to Know: July 3, 2015
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Manny Happy Returns
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: Grandal's Ambitions

MORE FROM JUNE 7, 2009
Prospectus Idol: Round Three - Below the Big...
Premium Article Prospectus Q&A: Drew Stubbs

MORE BY JOHN PERROTTO
2009-06-17 - Premium Article On the Beat: Dugout Turnover
2009-06-14 - Premium Article On the Beat: Weekend Wrap
2009-06-10 - Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-Week Roundup
2009-06-07 - Premium Article On the Beat: Sunday Summary
2009-06-03 - Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-week Roundup
2009-06-01 - Premium Article Player Profile: Jimmy Rollins
2009-05-31 - Premium Article On the Beat: Weekend Roundup
More...

MORE ON THE BEAT
2009-06-17 - Premium Article On the Beat: Dugout Turnover
2009-06-14 - Premium Article On the Beat: Weekend Wrap
2009-06-10 - Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-Week Roundup
2009-06-07 - Premium Article On the Beat: Sunday Summary
2009-06-03 - Premium Article On the Beat: Mid-week Roundup
2009-05-31 - Premium Article On the Beat: Weekend Roundup
2009-05-27 - Premium Article On the Beat: Bouncing Back
More...