Prospectus Hit and Run... (05/07)
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May 6, 2009 Prospectus Hit and RunCinco do Samplo, AL
Drawing conclusions from one month's play is a challenge. PECOTA projections, run differentials, strength of schedule and batted-ball results all fit into what I'll call the Rorschach Test of Impending Correction: selectively viewed blots of data which can justify nearly every regression-to-the-mean scenario under the sun. We know that the Blue Jays were projected to win 75 games in a brutally difficult division, that they're nonetheless 18-10 thanks to league leads in Equivalent Average, Defensive Efficiency, and run differential, and that they've played one of the easiest schedules to date, so how seriously should we take them? To grapple with the question of which results are significant thus far, I've called upon two tools to estimate final winning percentages. The first, likely more familiar to our readers, is derived via the PECOTA-based Playoff Odds Report. Each team's current record and third-order Pythagorean record are factored into a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, with their records regressing not to .500 but to their projected winning percentages. Though it doesn't account for big injuries that have happened since Opening Day, this method obviously incorporates a great deal of data regarding current rosters. The second is the outcome of Rany Jazayerli's Royally-inspired three-part investigation into hot starts circa 2003. Via multivariate regression, Rany found that a team's final winning percentage after a given number of games could be estimated by Y = P + ((S - P) × (.0415 + (.0096 × G))), where P is a team's projected winning percentage based on a weighted average of three previous seasons, S is their current winning percentage, and G is the number of games thus far. It's a nasty-looking formula, but it's based on over 70 years of historical data. Below are the two estimates for each AL team's final winning percentage based upon the results through Monday (tomorrow I'll hit the NL), sorted by the Odds method: AL East Odds Hist Red Sox .595 .572 Yankees .594 .536 Rays .538 .486 Blue Jays .493 .558 Orioles .435 .429 AL Central Odds Hist Tigers .522 .502 Royals .494 .495 Indians .493 .474 Twins .474 .518 White Sox .462 .508 AL West Odds Hist Mariners .501 .486 Athletics .490 .462 Angels .490 .539 Rangers .451 .498 With no team bolting quickly from the gate, the key take-home point is relatively subtle: the hot-starting interlopers in the AL Central and AL West races, the Royals and Mariners, certainly have shots in their tightly packed divisions, while the Blue Jays' bid for contention is harder to take seriously.
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
As long as Toronto continues to turn freely available pitchers into #3 starters seemingly overnight, they have a shot at this thing. I wonder if we can simulate that by moving replacement level up to a Jesse Litsch equivalent just for them.