Prospectus Today

The Bottom Ten

by Joe Sheehan

It's time to lay it on the line again. I've done this by divisions, by league, and overall, and I think I like overall the best. The distinctions between the leagues have been blurred so much that what we really have now are the American and National conferences of MLB, rather than separate entities with many differences. Other than the DH—which is a big difference, of course—the leagues do play much the same game. Illusions about "National League baseball" persist, but the one-run strategies in the league are really all automatic and tied back to the lack of a DH. There's more bunting, but not necessarily more strategy.

Over the next few days we'll count down the teams, #30 through #1, and explain why they're in that slot. There's a great deal of parity again this year—23 of 30 teams are slated to have from 70 to 88 wins, and there are just four or five teams I'd feel comfortable writing off completely before the season starts. We've entered an era not of NFL-style randomness, but of significant parity within the game in which the structure of the league allows everyone an opportunity to build successfully and sustain that success, reaping the benefits both on and off the field. It's not a perfect league, but it is a strong one.

Teams are ranked by record, primarily a function of runs scored and runs allowed, which are what I spent the last week calculating. I've made an occasional manual change to account for particularly strong or weak bullpens that can cause a team to diverge from its Pythagorean record, and to make everything balance at 2,430-2,430.

So here we go...

#30: San Diego Padres (61-101, 611 RS, 792 RA)
What's going to kill the Padres is their outfield defense. They have a converted third baseman in left field, a 38-year-old in right field, and a 31-year-old with rebuilt knees in center. Unless they're moving the fences in—way in—at Petco Park, that's a recipe for a lot of doubles and triples. The rotation falls off dramatically after the top two slots, and even Chris Young could be in trouble pitching in front of this defense. The Padres may have the worst middle infield in baseball, and if you consider catcher in that grouping, you can take "may" out of the equation. This is why they're rightly trying to trade Jake Peavy, and should be shopping everything that moves. There are no building blocks here, not for 2011 and beyond.

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wonkothesane1

(18803)

What is it about the Padres that makes you disagree with PECOTA's projection of 61 more runs scored and 39 more runs prevented? PECOTA already takes into account the bad situation at C/SS/2B and the OF defense isn't nearly as bad as you make it out to be (by UZR it's not even the worst in the division since the Dodgers are way worse and Brad Hawpe is worse than all the Padres OFs combined). I just think PECOTA isn't exactly giving the Padres any gifts, and yet you are downgrading them from that projection. I don't get it.

Apr 02, 2009 17:34 PM