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March 31, 2009

You Could Look It Up

The Ballad of the Old Shortstops

by Steven Goldman

Both here at BP (and in the annual) and at my other home, I've been waging a desultory war about Derek Jeter's future. His contract is up after the 2010 season, and though he'll be knocking on the door of 3,000 hits, I have argued that the Yankees should say goodbye. Jeter's defense is already a problem at short and is unlikely to have improved as he enters his age-37 season. With his bat sliding and his speed seemingly ebbing, a transfer to another position seems unlikely to bear fruit. As I said in my most recent chat, "I don't know that Jeter is a viable major leaguer in three years. My standard line—his glove will no longer play in the middle infield, his bat won't play anywhere else."

With 2010 in mind, I decided to go hunting through baseball history for those teams that put considerations of age aside and used a regular shortstop of Jeter 2010 vintage, age-37 and up. "Regular" here is defined by a season of more than 400 plate appearances. Before we get into the actual AARP all-stars, a note about the results. This group has an inherent selection bias. A shortstop only lasts into his late 30s because his defense was so good to begin with, or perceived to be so good, that the teams felt that they were still worth playing despite declining powers. Thus in the first group, the 37-year-olds, you will find that of 15 players, seven are Hall of Famers, two more (Dave Concepcion and Bad Bill Dahlen) are frequently mentioned as belonging in the Hall of Fame, and another (Omar Vizquel) may one day get there on the strength of his defense.

Group One: Still Spry 37-Year-Olds
                  Year Team       PA   G    AVG/ OBP/ SLG FRAA2 WARP3   W-L  Postseason?
Omar Vizquel      2004 Indians   651  148  .291/.353/.388    2   4.2   80-82  N
Pee Wee Reese     1956 Dodgers   648  147  .257/.322/.344   -5   2.2   93-61 Lost WS
Rabbit Maranville 1929 Braves    634  146  .284/.344/.366   15   4.3   56-98  N
Dave Concepcion   1985 Reds      620  155  .252/.314/.330  -15   0.2   89-72  N
Dave Bancroft     1928 Dodgers   591  149  .247/.326/.303    3   1.4   77-76  N
Ozzie Smith       1992 Cardinals 590  132  .295/.367/.342   21   7.2   83-79  N
Maury Wills       1970 Dodgers   578  132  .270/.333/.318   -2   2.5   87-74  N
Honus Wagner      1911 Pirates   558  130  .334/.423/.507    4   6.8   85-69  N
Larry Bowa        1983 Cubs      544  147  .267/.312/.339   12   2.9   71-91  N
Luis Aparicio     1971 Red Sox   541  125  .232/.284/.303  -17  -1.3   85-77  N
Bill Dahlen       1907 Giants    529  143  .207/.291/.254   14   1.2   82-71  N
Bones Ely         1900 Pirates   503  130  .244/.272/.282   16   1.8   76-90 N/A
Bobby Wallace     1911 Browns    464  125  .232/.312/.271    3   0.3   45-107 N
Tommy Corcoran    1906 Reds      460  117  .207/.242/.249    1  -2.0   64-87  N
Art Fletcher      1922 Phillies  431  110  .280/.325/.409    0   1.0   57-96  N

So far we have learned very little, except that Honus Wagner was a great player at any age. We've also learned that very few teams thought their shortstop was good enough that keeping him around at this age was a worthwhile thing to do, or that you can have a good record while doing it, and even win a pennant.

One change in this group resulted in a near pennant-winner the following season: after Dahlen's offensively inert season in 1907, the Giants switched to the more potent Al Bridwell. This and other key moves, including the return of slugger Turkey Mike Donlin from self-imposed exile, helped the Giants improve to 98-56 and a controversial second-place finish (for more, see our book It Ain't Over).

Group Two: The 38-Year-Olds Hang on for Dear Life
                  Year Team       PA   G    AVG/ OBP/ SLG FRAA2 WARP3   W-L  Postseason?
Maury Wills       1971 Dodgers   654  149  .281/.323/.329   12   4.8   89-73   N
Omar Vizquel      2005 Giants    651  152  .271/.341/.350    8   3.2   75-87   N
Honus Wagner      1912 Pirates   634  145  .324/.395/.496   31  10.4   93-58   N
Rabbit Maranville 1930 Braves    628  142  .281/.344/.367    0   2.0   70-84   N
Ozzie Smith       1993 Cardinals 603  141  .288/.337/.356   14   4.3   87-75   N
Bill Dahlen       1908 Braves    588  144  .239/.296/.307   22   3.8   63-91   N
Barry Larkin      2002 Reds      567  145  .245/.305/.367   -6   0.4   78-84   N
Luis Aparicio     1972 Red Sox   474  110  .257/.299/.351  -15   0.7   85-70   N
Jimmy Austin      1918 Browns    442  110  .264/.359/.324   -1   0.0   58-64   N
Bones Ely         1901 Bucs/A's  435  110  .212/.232/.265   -2  -1.8    N/A   N/A
Larry Bowa        1984 Cubs      423  133  .223/.274/.269   -2  -0.7   96-65   Y
Dave Bancroft     1929 Dodgers   403  104  .277/.331/.332   -6   0.3   70-83   N

Moving our age cut-off up by a year, we find that in the entire modern history of baseball, just 12 teams tried to compete with a 38-year-old shortstop. Again, the implication seems to be that unless you have one of the top shortstops of all time—or Bones Ely, who our translations suggest was a defensive standout in his day—the younger guys had more range.