Printer-friendly

Contact Author

March 20, 2009

Prospectus Hit and Run

Outside Help, AL Central

by Jay Jaffe

While all eyes were focused on the three-horse American League East race, last year's AL Central provided the league's best late-season drama. The White Sox wound up beating the Twins in a Game 163 play-in, but only after the Sox had squandered their 2½-game cushion by dropping three games in Minnesota during the season's final week, winning on the last day of the season to force a rainout makeup with the Tigers, and then winning that contest to force the tiebreaker with the Twins. In all, the division finished as the majors' second-strongest in Hit List Factor.

Top to bottom, it was also the game's most tightly packed division, with just 14½ games separating the Sox from the basement-dwelling Tigers. PECOTA sees this year's Central race as a similarly tight affair, with a separation of just 12 games. That's enough to spread a little hope and faith around the Midwest, which may explain why the Royals spent more money than all but one team in the division in the free-agent market while also taking on considerable salary via trades. Still, only the AL West spent less per team on free agents, suggesting that the economy forced some belt-tightening.

Since tackling the AL West in this series, a new set of PECOTA forecasts has been released, one which makes the critical adjustment for a team's projected defense, thus either shaving off or piling on additional runs allowed and shaking things up from where they stood a few weeks ago. Teams are listed in order of their 2008 finish; for each hitter, WARP and EqA are listed, while for each pitcher, the figures are WARP and EqERA.

Chicago White Sox

IN: INF Wilson Betemit (0.5, .267), SP Ryan Braun (0.7, 4.90), 1B Ben Broussard (-0.5, .246), SP Bartolo Colon (1.4, 4.86), C Tyler Flowers (2.5, .266), RP Kelvin Jimenez (0.5, 5.40), OF Josh Kroeger (0.3, .245), MI Brent Lillibridge (1.5, .242), SP Jeffrey Marquez (-0.9, 6.79), 1B Brian Myrow (0.3, .265), SP Jhonny Nunez (-0.1, 6.31), 2B Jayson Nix (0.7, .222), INF Eider Torres (0.1, .226), SP John Van_Benschoten (-0.3, 6.58), 3B Dayan Vicidedo (0.2, .237)
OUT: SS Orlando Cabrera (1.7, .252), 3B Joe Crede (0.6, .24), OF Ken Griffey Jr. (1.1, .272), C Toby Hall (0.0, .223), RP Boone Logan (1.2, 4.17), SP Horacio Ramirez (0.7, 5.28), 1B/OF Nick Swisher (1.9, .279), RP Kanekoa Texeira (0.8, 5.03), SS Juan Uribe (0.9, .242), SP Javier Vazquez (5.3, 3.76)
NET: -7.0 WARP