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March 11, 2009

Checking the Numbers

Pedro's Tank

by Eric Seidman

When Pedro Martinez toed his home rubber to kick off the 1999 All-Star Game, fans across the globe knew they were in for a special performance. The game's best pitcher had breezed through the offense-heavy junior circuit in the first half, compiling a 2.10 ERA, 184/24 K:BB, and a Rafael Belliard-esque .213/.254/.292 opponent's line. On national television against some of the best hitters in the game, Pedro did not disappoint, fanning five of the six hitters he faced, and making each look foolish in the process. That image of Martinez is ingrained in our minds: a dominant and diminutive Dominican capable of shutting down and intimidating anyone who stepped into the box.

Ten years removed from that moment, the owner of arguably the two best-pitched seasons in major league history and a surefire Hall of Fame pitcher lacks employment, and has resorted to using the World Baseball Classic as an audition. After a disappointing 2008 season, does he have anything left in the tank?

Over the last few seasons, Pedro has fallen well short of expectations, a fact that he fully acknowledges. After consecutive seasons of 31-plus games started and 217 innings pitched in 2004-05, Martinez has averaged just 16 games started and 90 IP over the past three years, exhibiting a tendency for injuries that only exacerbates the inevitable performance decline of a pitcher in his mid-30s. Interestingly, despite extended trips to the disabled list due to rotator cuff and hamstring issues, as well as a slew of other injuries that hampered his performance on the field, Pedro's overall strikeout rate since 2006 has not suffered as substantially as some might expect. Here are some of his seasonal averages:

Seasons  GS    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   NRA  DERA
2004-05  32  217.0  9.0  2.2  0.9  3.35  3.49
2006-08  16   90.0  8.5  2.8  1.3  5.03  5.57

Overall averages can be quite deceiving, however, because they hide year-to-year shifts. Pedro's 2006-08 strikeout rate may be 8.5 per nine innings, but the average is largely comprised of a 9.3 K/9 in 2006 and a career-worst 7.2 K/9 last season. Combine the relatively low strikeout rate with a 3.6 BB/9 mark that happened to be his highest since 1993, and it becomes a little easier to understand what went wrong last season. The underlying cause for these rate changes can be found in plate discipline metrics, which show a particularly disturbing trend since his last award-worthy season in 2005:

Season O-Swing O-Cont Z-Swing Z-Cont
 2005    23.3   46.9    64.8   83.1
 2006    24.9   52.4    66.7   83.7
 2007    27.8   44.8    68.8   82.4
 2008    27.3   67.5    59.8   85.4

League Averages: O-Swing=24.4%, O-Cont=59.9%, Z-Swing=66.3%, Z-Cont=88.1%

Ignore the 2007 season for a moment (Pedro made just five starts), and instead compare the years before and after. Pedro induced swings out of the zone at a higher clip last season, yet the contact on these swings soared to heights he had never before seen. Likewise, hitters proved more efficient on pitches thrown in the zone, as their zone contact rate increased despite a lower percentage of swings. All of this signals that Pedro had lost much of his ability to fool hitters, which led to fewer whiffs, more balls in play, and a heavier reliance on his defense, which went well for Martinez given the abilities of the Mets' defenders throughout his tenure.