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February 27, 2009

Under The Knife

On the Mend?

by Will Carroll

Johan Santana
Just to remind you, Santana is human. He had knee surgery this offseason and... oh yeah, it was back in 2003 that he had bone chips removed from his elbow. That's a situation that often recurs, and it's something that does come to mind for the Mets' ace, who reportedly has some discomfort in his elbow. Sources insist that he's just a behind in his throwing schedule, due to a decidedly leisurely rehab pace after his knee was scoped. The conspiracy-minded among you might think that the pace of the rehab was designed to make sure that Santana wouldn't be ready in time to join the Venezuelan team in the WBC, but who's to say? At this stage, it seems more like the reasonable caution of a team that understands that without Santana they'd have no hope of reaching the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the team adjusts to its new coaching staff, and if some of the injury issues from last season end up making the team and the medical staff overcautious.

Jeremy Bonderman
After last season's setbacks, mere soreness has to seem like an improvement to Bonderman, because after a few rounds of surgery to correct a circulatory problem in his arm and remove part of a rib, "ribcage soreness" seems completely reasonable. He's not where the Tigers would like him to be in his throwing schedule, but sources tell me that the Tigers knew months ago that he'd be behind the ideal time frame, while still being within the normal range. Bonderman is an interesting case, in that he essentially took a year off, resting an arm that had been worked hard, though in the proper way. Assuming that the surgeons put everything back in the right places, Bonderman should be able to make a strong return, much the same way that Kenny Rogers and David Cone did from similar situations. It just might take a bit more time.

Jason Schmidt
Forget about throwing. When it comes to analyzing a pitcher who is coming back from an injury, it's seldom the throwing that's the problem, but rather the recovery. That's what happened with Schmidt, and though he was able to get out on the mound and throw well on Monday, when it came to getting back out there on Wednesday for a bullpen session, he had trouble with reduced velocity, and observers reported that he "seemed uncomfortable." That's the concern here, and with many other pitchers who are in similar situations. We'll know a lot more on Friday, when Schmidt is scheduled to face hitters again. The back end of the rotation remains a much bigger issue for the Dodgers than the signing of Manny Ramirez. At least Chad Billingsley has looked good in camp so far, and there's always the possibility of bringing back Pedro Martinez, something that Tommy Lasorda has long dreamed of.

Vernon Wells
The comment section for Wells in Baseball Prospectus 2009 ends with, "...if he stays healthy." Well, so much for that idea. Wells spent much of 2008 either dealing with injuries, or coming back from them, which is exactly how his '09 is starting. His hamstring is acting up again, and while the team is trying to sell this as not being very serious and the team just trying to be cautious early in camp, it doesn't exactly fit the plan for the Jays' resurgence. Wells' hamstring strain is definitely a cause for concern, but not one for panic. Like most injuries in spring training, timing is everything. He'll have ample time to recover and get in some swings, and he should be ready for Opening Day, which is all that really counts. Looking through his comps, I don't see a whole lot; it appears to be a number of recent players just on the other side of their peaks. Anyone disagree?

David Ortiz
Jed Lowrie
Batting practice is like a magic show: most people like to ooh and ahh, but there are some who sit there and try to figure out the trick. It's normally no trick for Ortiz to hit 400-foot bombs, but it became so for most of last year after his wrist injury. The tendon sheath was as much a mental issue as it was a physical one, and he wasn't able to get past the discomfort during the season. Rest and workouts during this offseason have him comfortable again, and taking those big swings and delivering those booming shots that we're all used to seeing. There's still some concern about possible fatigue and inflammation, but things look good at this stage for Big Papi to avoid turning into Medium Papi in the power department. Things are less clear for Lowrie; he fought through a hand/wrist injury last season, but the interesting thing here is not that he didn't lose anything because of it. He played so well as a rookie despite the injury that it's hard to say what he'll gain back now that he's healthy. If it was holding him back, he'll have an edge in what looks like a straight-up battle with Julio Lugo for the starting job.