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February 27, 2009

Future Shock

Mariners Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

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top 11 prospects

SEATTLE MARINERS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Greg Halman, CF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
3. Michael Saunders, CF
4. Joshua Fields, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
5. Juan Ramirez, RHP
6. Carlos Triunfel, SS
7. Dennis Raben, RF
8. Adam Moore, C
9. Jharmidy De Jesus, 3B
Two-Star Prospects
10. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B
11. Mario Martinez, 3B

Just Missed: Maikel Cleto, RHP; Julio Morban, SS; Miguel Pineda, RHP

Ranking Challenges: It's an unusual organization, in the sense that you have many players with interesting skills, and yet they all have either a great deal to prove, a significant hole in their game, or both.

1. Greg Halman, CF
DOB: 8/26/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Netherlands, 2004
2008 Stats: .268/.320/.572, .240 EqA at High-A (67 G); .277/.332/.481, .240 EqA at Double-A (61 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 10

Year in Review: After failing to hit in a full-season league in 2007, the most talented player in the system made the jump all the way up to Double-A, and wound up leading the minors as far as power/speed numbers with 29 home runs and 31 stolen bases.
The Good: Halman comes loaded with tools; one scout gave him 60-plus grades (on the 20-80 scouting scale) on his power, his speed, and his throwing arm. He's capable of eye-popping shots when he gets his arms extended over the plate, and his bat moves into the hitting zone quickly. His speed serves him well both on the basepaths and in center field.
The Bad: His ultimate upside will depend on his plate discipline. He advanced by leaps and bounds in that department last year, but he still managed just 32 walks while striking out 142 times in 492 at-bats. He still lunges at pitches, expands his strike zone when behind in the count, and he can often be pull-happy.
Fun Fact: Robert Eenhorn's 1997 home run off of Roger Pavlik remains the only homer hit in the majors by a player born in the Netherlands.
Perfect World Projection: He'll never have a great on-base percentage, but you could do a lot worse than a 30-30 center fielder.
Glass Half Empty: His free-swinging ways prevent him from taking advantage of his promise, and he turns into a marginal starter or a bench outfielder.
Path to the Big Leagues: Newly acquired Franklin Gutierrez should not be much of an obstacle if Halman can continue his progress.
Timetable: Having moved from Short-season up to Double-A in less than a year, Halman will return to Double-A in 2009 to give him time to refine his skills.

2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
DOB: 1/7/89
Height/Weight: 6-7/220
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2007, Ecole Du Versant (QC)
2008 Stats: 2.75 ERA at Low-A (55.2-46-19-50), 6.47 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: 6

Year in Review: This first-round pick impressed in limited innings last year; Seattle became very cautious with him once he developed elbow soreness.
The Good: Aumont's best pitch is a low-90s sinker that touches 95 and has explosive late life, with one scout calling it a major league-ready offering right now. He'll flash a decent slider at times, is aggressive in the strike zone, and he brings a lot of intensity to the mound.
The Bad: Aumount's elbow problems are a concern, as he does tend to throw across his body. While the slider is effective, it also flattens out far too often, and with a below-average changeup, some think that he'd be put to better use in the bullpen. He needs to get in more innings; he pitched less than 60 last year. He also needs to harness his emotions, as his tendency to stare down umpires and slam his glove whenever he was being pulled from a game did him no favors at Low-A.
Fun Fact: The only 11th overall pick in the draft to reach triple digits in wins is Sean Estes, another Mariners pick who was selected out of a Nevada high school in 1991.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be a front-line starter.
Glass Half Empty: There's just too much work to be done, and he ends up as a reliever.
Path to the Big Leagues: It's too early to be a concern, but the Mariners' system is hardly loaded with pitching.
Timetable: Aumont will face one of the toughest challenges in the minor leagues by pitching at High-A High Desert in 2009, but just finding him innings is arguably more important than how effective he is.

3. Michael Saunders, CF
DOB: 11/19/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 11th round, 2004, Lambrick Park SS (BC)
2008 Stats: .290/.375/.484, .260 EqA at Double-A (67 G); .242/.308/.400, .228 EqA at Triple-A (24 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 7

Year in Review: He's a high-ceiling athlete who continued to make progress in converting his tools into skills with a strong showing in 2008 at Double-A.
The Good: Saunders is an impressive physical specimen with the tools to match, with size, strength, and speed that's a tick above average. He has excellent pitch recognition, and rarely swings at pitches out of the strike zone. He's a good defensive outfielder with a plus arm, and he gets high marks for his makeup and competitiveness.
The Bad: Saunders doesn't have any one outstanding tool, being seen by many as a player who should be good for 15-20 home runs and stolen bases per year, but not much more. His swing has a few holes in it, and he occasionally gives away at-bats when reaching for power. His ability to stay in center field could be the key to his future; he's only average there now, and there are fears that any loss in speed will cost him range.
Fun Fact: Players drafted 333rd overall (as Saunders was) have hit 558 home runs in the big leagues, but 541 of them have come off of the bat of Jim Thome.
Perfect World Projection: Decent average, plenty of walks, some power, and some speed-just an all-around good outfielder.
Glass Half Empty: If he's forced to move to an outfield corner, his situation will become more complicated.
Path to the Big Leagues: He's blocked for now, but only by a few fringe talents and players with short contracts.
Timetable: Saunders is healthy after having minor shoulder surgery in the offseason, and he'll begin the year at Triple-A Tacoma with no expectations of making the big leagues this year other than a possible September call-up.

4. Joshus Fields, RHP
DOB: 8/19/85
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2008, University of Georgia
2008 Stats: None
Last Year's Ranking: N/A

Year in Review: Just when you thought that the days of draft holdouts were over, one of the best college relievers used his senior status to extend his negotiating window into this month, when he finally inked for a $1.75 million bonus.
The Good: Fields has pure closer stuff, with a mid-90s fastball that consistently touches 98 mph, and an absolutely vicious power curveball that helped him strike out 63 in 37 1/3 innings at Georgia last spring while allowing only 17 hits. He wants the ball with the game on the line, and it seemed to many observers that he had the ability to pitch better in close games.
The Bad: Fields is a little on the small side, and the lack of downward plane leaves his fastball too true at times. His mechanics are high-effort, if not downright violent, and future injuries could be an issue. Between playing four years at college and his long holdout, he's already 23 years old and has no pro experience, and while he should move quickly up through the system, the fact is that he has to.
Fun Fact: Fields went 18-for-18 in save opportunities last spring, and in those 18 games he allowed just one run on three hits over 19 innings.
Perfect World Projection: He becomes a major league closer.
Glass Half Empty: His health and age are bigger factors in any long-term projection than his ability is.
Path to the Big Leagues: He may be pushed, since the Seattle doesn't have anything close to an established closer right now.
Timetable: Spring training will be the Mariners' first opportunity to see Fields in action since his signing. They'll evaluate him closely and determine where he'll begin his career; it could be as high as Double-A.

5. Juan Ramirez, RHP
DOB: 8/16/88
Height/Weight: 6-3/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Nicaragua, 2005
2008 Stats: 4.14 ERA at Low-A (124-112-38-113), 8.81 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: 5

Year in Review: This high-ceiling arm continued to show more in the way of projection than in actual numbers in his full-season debut last year.
The Good: Ramirez has a nearly perfect power-pitching frame and mechanics, and he effortlessly throws 92-94 mph fastballs that can touch 96. His heater features good late life, and he locates the pitch extremely well for being so inexperienced. He flashes a good slider, and he was at his best toward the end of the season.
The Bad: Ramirez' secondary pitches lag well behind his power stuff; he gets around on his slider and flattens it out often, and his changeup is rather rudimentary. The latter is of most concern, as he could use another weapon against left-handers.
Fun Fact: Though it is his country's capital and largest city, no player born in Managua has ever pitched in the big leagues.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be a good power starter.
Glass Half Empty: Or a good power reliever.
Path to the Big Leagues: It depends on his role, but again, the Mariners do not have a strong big-league staff filled with roadblocks.
Timetable: Like Aumount, Ramirez faces a significant challenge this year with an assignment to High Desert in the High-A California League.

6. Carlos Triunfel, SS
DOB: 2/27/90
Height/Weight: 5-11/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2006
2008 Stats: .287/.336/.406, .199 EqA at High-A (108 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 3

Year in Review: This big-money international signee held his own at High-A in '08 as an 18-year-old.
The Good: He has a quick bat and tremendous feel for contact, striking out just 52 times in 436 at-bats, all while being the youngest player in the league. He's a solid runner with soft hands on defense and the best infield arm in the system-an absolute cannon that some graded as a pure 80 on the scouting scale.
The Bad: Triunfel has a thick lower half, and as his body matures, he'll likely lose the athleticism needed to play up the middle. His arm and glove would work fine at third base, but there are significant questions about his power potential and how his bat would play at the hot corner. His makeup has come into question; he's been suspended in the past by Seattle, while also clashing with coaches.
Fun Fact: Triunfel hit .365 in the first three innings of games in 2008, but just .231 thereafter.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be a .300-hitting third baseman with plus defense.
Glass Half Empty: There's not enough power to qualify as more than a second-division starter at third.
Path to the Big Leagues: Adrian Beltre is in the last year of his contract, which should be cause for celebration for Seattle fans whether Triunfel makes it or not.
Timetable: He'll almost assuredly be the youngest player in the league once again at Double-A West Tennessee, where he could see playing time at three different infield positions.

7. Dennis Raben, RF
DOB: 7/31/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 2nd round, 2008, University of Miami
2008 Stats: .275/.411/.560 at Short-season (27 G)
Last Year's Ranking: N/A

Year in Review: A disappointing junior year at Miami in which he was overshadowed by Yonder Alonso and Jemile Weeks dropped Raben out of the first round, but he looked as if he was returning to form during his pro debut last year.
The Good: He's a very good offense-oriented prospect with a keen eye at the plate and above-average power. He hits both lefties and righties hard, and uses all parts of the field, focusing more on using his strength to generate hard contact, as opposed to pulling the ball. Other than his bat, his other plus tool is his throwing arm.
The Bad: Raben's development will all come down to his hitting. He's a below-average athlete, and no more than a 40 runner. His range is limited in the outfield, though he tries to make up for it with good reads and jumps. He has a history of injuries that includes some back issues, which can be a red flag for young players.
Fun Fact: Seattle has had their eye on Raben for years; he was also drafted by the Mariners in 2005 out of St. Thomas Aquinas High, the same school that produced A's starter Sean Gallagher.
Perfect World Projection: A corner outfielder who hits fifth in a big-league lineup.
Glass Half Empty: A little less development on offense and defense, and he'll end up as a mediocre first baseman with a borderline bat.
Path to the Big Leagues: It should be clear by the time Raben will be ready.
Timetable: Depending on his performance this spring, he'll probably begin the year at one of Seattle's A-level affiliates.

8. Adam Moore, C
DOB: 5/8/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 6th round, 2006, University of Texas
2008 Stats: .319/.396/.506, .260 EqA at Double-A (119 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: He proved that his 2007 breakout was more than just a High Desert-generated mirage with a very good showing at Double-A in 2008.
The Good: Moore is a big catcher who's gifted with considerable tools. He's not a pure power hitter, but rather a guy with good pitch recognition, a knack for hard contact, and enough raw strength to hit 15-20 home runs annually. He has the makeup for catching, he's a leader on the field, and pitchers enjoy working with him.
The Bad: Moore's defense needs improvement; his receiving and blocking skills are well below average, and his decent arm is often offset by accuracy issues. He also runs like... a big catcher.
Fun Fact: Moore was at his best with the bases loaded last year, going 7-for-12 with two doubles and a grand slam.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be an offense-first starting catcher.
Glass Half Empty: It will be the bat or nothing, as backups are usually picked for their glove work.
Path to the Big Leagues: Jeff Clement is Seattle's catcher of the future, and he is waiting for Kenji Johjima to get out of the way.
Timetable: Moore will begin the year at Triple-A Tacoma.

9. Jharmidy De Jesus, 3B
DOB: 8/30/89
Height/Weight: 6-3/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2007
2008 Stats: .339/.417/.591 at Rookie-level (34 G); .267/.316/.444 at Short-season (28 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: This million-dollar Dominican infielder needed just 217 at-bats to smack ten home runs in his stateside debut last year.
The Good: De Jesus has considerable upside on offense. He has a broad-shouldered, projectable frame, and plus raw power that is already showing up in-game. He projects as a good defender at the hot corner, with good instincts, and a plus arm.
The Bad: He needs to refine his approach; the more advanced pitchers of the Northwest League were able to get him out with a steady diet of breaking balls, and he has to be more patient and lay off of chase pitches. While he has the tools to play the hot corner, he needs to improve his fundamentals there, which should improve with repetition and experience.
Fun Fact: In the three games in which De Jesus hit third in the Everett lineup, he went 0-for-12 with seven whiffs.
Perfect World Projection: He should be an above-average everyday third baseman.
Glass Half Empty: There is still plenty of time for things to go wrong.
Path to the Big Leagues: It could become complicated if Triunfel ends up at the hot corner.
Timetable: DeJesus will begin the year at Low-A Clinton as a 19-year-old.

10. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B
DOB: 5/10/86
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 3rd round, 2004, Woodinville HS (WA)
2008 Stats: .281/.364/.453, .267 EqA at Triple-A (111 G); .159/.213/.250, .246 EqA at MLB (14 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Just Missed

Year in Review: The former heavily hyped talent gradually re-appeared on the prospect radar by delivering some solid showings at the upper levels of the system in 2008.
The Good: Scouts like Tuiasosopo's approach and his hitting mechanics; he works the count well, and has a quiet swing that is quick to the ball. He has gap power, the ability to crush mistakes, and he projects to hit 15-20 home runs per year. He's a good defensive third baseman with a very good arm.
The Bad: Tuiasosopo has solid tools on offense, but there's little about him that might indicate he'll be a star. He alternates between being too patient and too aggressive in his approach, either laying off of pitches that he can drive, or chasing breaking balls in the dirt.
Fun Fact: His big bonus lured him away from becoming a quarterback at the University of Washington like his older brother Marques, who also had considerable baseball ability and was a 34th-round pick by the Twins in 1997.
Perfect World Projection: He could be a solid everyday third baseman.
Glass Half Empty: He may have to settle for being a bench player.
Path to the Big Leagues: While there are players behind him with higher ceilings, Tuiasosopo could be first in line for the third-base job once Adrian Beltre departs.
Timetable: He'll begin the year biding his time back at Triple-A, but he could be up in the second half if Beltre gets traded at the deadline.

11. Mario Martinez, 3B
DOB: 11/13/89
Height/Weight: 6-1/208
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Venezuela, 2006
2008 Stats: .319/.344/.462 at Rookie-level (64 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: The Mariners' recent investments in Latin America continue to look sound as this Venezuelan impressed Appy League scouts last year in his pro debut.
The Good: Martinez' bat speed ranks with that of anyone else in the organization, and he hits to all parts of the field, showing decent gap power with the potential for more. Originally a shortstop, he brings a high level of athleticism to the hot corner, with outstanding range and a plus arm.
The Bad: Martinez' power ceiling is hotly debated among scouts; he has the core skills to hit for power, but his single-plane swing could limit that aspect of his production. He's a very aggressive hitter who will need a more studied approach as he moves up through the system. His current method is to just grip it and rip it.
Fun Fact: He was successful in two of his four stolen-base attempts in the first eight games of the season, and he didn't run again over the next 56 games.
Perfect World Projection: He's going to be a high-average hitter with some power.
Glass Half Empty: He may not have enough power to stick at the hot corner.
Path to the Big Leagues: De Jesus and Martinez will battle for the future third-base job for years to come.
Timetable: For now, the pair will likely be sharing duties at Low-A Clinton.

The Sleeper: As a player who was more focused on football as an amateur, Michael Wilson had been slow to develop his baseball skills, but the big outfielder led the Southern League with 27 home runs last year while showing a much-improved approach.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (as of Opening Day 2009)

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP
2. Brandon Morrow, RHP
3. Jeff Clement, C
4. Greg Halman, CF
5. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
6. Michael Saunders, CF
7. Joshua Fields, RHP
8. Jose Lopez, 2B
9. Wladimir Balentien, RF
10. Ryan Rowland-Smith, RHP

Seattle could end up being better than expected just on the strength of those first two names. Hernandez seems poised for a breakout at any and every moment, and if I could pick one pitcher in baseball capable of taking a huge step forward this year, it would be Morrow, who showed absolutely filthy stuff toward the end of the season. I still have faith in Clement, but not so much in Balentien. Jose Lopez makes far too many outs, but he is young, he gets a little better every year, and there is still some room for growth. Rowland-Smith did a fine job both as a starter and reliever last year, and he should be able to hold down a back-end rotation gig.

Summary: The Mariners' system has been depleted due to some recent graduations to the majors, but they still have a significant number of young, high-ceiling talents that could have this organization looking much better a year from now.


Up next: the Tampa Bay Rays.

---

Mike Curto, radio voice of the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers, joins Brad Wochomurka to talk about life in the Pacific Northwest and some of Seattle's top prospects as we check in on the Top 11 Prospect Lists at BPR.


Click to download mp3

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

48 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Evan
(47)

Seriously? People are still complaining about Beltre's contract, even though he's provided good value for his salary over the whole four years so far?

Really?

Beltre's performance (includnig defense) has been worth pretty much exactly what the Mariners have been paying him. That was a good contract when he signed it, and it's still a good contract.

How does anyone still not know this?

Feb 27, 2009 09:26 AM
rating: 10
 
mymrbig

Good list, I'm surprised Truinfel's power concerns knocked him so far down the list. Does he just not get good lift/backspin when he hits the ball, or does he just not hit the ball as hard as you'd like for a guy to develop power?

How crazy is it that Felix Hernandez is younger than David Price?

Also, I think most Seattle fans who value defense don't mind Beltre's contract. He's an elite defender with an average bat for his position, which is worth a lot more than people give him credit for. In the grand scheme of Mariner contracts given out in the past few years, Beltre is much better than the likes of Silva, Washburn, Batista, Sexson, and Johjima.

Feb 27, 2009 09:28 AM
rating: 4
 
West21

King Felix does seem like he's a grizzled vet already, people forget how young he was when he made his debut.

Feb 27, 2009 10:19 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I think Triunfel has a lot of red flags, from the power (and it is a line drive swing), to the position, to the makeup. I know a lot of people are very high on him, I guess it's just that I can't find those people when I make my scout calls. I don't see it.

Feb 27, 2009 12:24 PM
 
Jonathan

Since I don't think he was signed in time for Top 100 consideration, would Fields have made the back end of the list if he'd been eligible?

Feb 27, 2009 09:28 AM
rating: 0
 
cjrhgarmon

Also, who is more likely to close this year: Fields or Ryan Perry of the Tigers?

Feb 27, 2009 09:51 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Killing two birds with one stone.

1. Yes, Fields on the back end of the 100 I think.
2. Fields over Perry.

Feb 27, 2009 12:25 PM
 
Doom Service

I'm always struck by how international the Mariners' prospects seem. Without Fields and Rabun, ie one year ago, it seemed like there were zero U.S. players in the top 10 (may have been the BA list...) No larger point, just an observation.

Feb 27, 2009 09:37 AM
rating: 0
 
dalamander

Kevin, last year you noted a prospect in each system with a good chance of shooting up the ranks in 2008. Anything similar planned this year (or did the "sleeper" in each system replace that)? Thanks.

Feb 27, 2009 09:50 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I'll make some picks in the season previews that come in March.

Feb 27, 2009 12:26 PM
 
lailaihei

Yeah I'm not sure what's up with the Beltre jab either. He's the best defensive 3B in the game with a pretty solid bat.
And I don't understand how Triunfel isn't #1 if he really is 19 just today. He's got a lot of time for the power to develop and he's got all the tools to be above-average defensively at 3B or a corner OF spot if he has to.

Feb 27, 2009 09:55 AM
rating: 3
 
Al Skorupa

He's got a lot of time for the power to develop? What does that matter if scouts dont think he will develop power? ie his swing doesnt generate backsping/loft or he has the wrong swing plane, etc...

Hell, Michael Ynoa is even younger - that doesnt mean he has a chance to develop power at the plate...

Feb 27, 2009 10:29 AM
rating: 0
 
lailaihei

He's going to fill out, he hits line drives to all fields, and he rarely strikes out even when most of the pitchers he is facing are a few years older than him.
He's a + base stealer, a likely + defender wherever he ends up, he makes excellent contact and has still-developing power. He's not going to be Willie Bloomquist power-wise...
His walk rate is still awful but the kid just turned 19 and is a potential star, I don't see how he's not a 5-star guy unless he is really 21 or his off-field issues take away his work ethic.

Feb 27, 2009 10:53 AM
rating: -2
 
Dan

Kevin, does DERA also adjust things up to the MLB level? Or is something off in the calculation possibly?

I'm looking at Aumont's numbers here and I just don't see how that could translate to a 6.47 DERA unless we're also taking A-ball stats and translating them to MLB level.

Thanks.

Feb 27, 2009 10:03 AM
rating: 0
 
BenFeldman

No to rub salt in anyone's wounds, but where would Chris Tillman rate in this system?

Feb 27, 2009 10:11 AM
rating: 0
 
lailaihei

#1

Feb 27, 2009 10:13 AM
rating: 0
 
Fresh Hops

Tillman was #22 (I think) in Kevin's top 100. Halman was in the 40s.

Feb 27, 2009 11:05 AM
rating: 0
 
Nick J

Is Halman really a 5 star prospect... or more of a 4 1/2?

Feb 27, 2009 10:13 AM
rating: -1
 
krgrecw

truinfel... anyone else think this guy maybe older than listed? KLaw mentioned it in his rankings

Feb 27, 2009 11:10 AM
rating: 0
 
Fresh Hops

Why is everyone always ragging on Beltre? This idea has been repeated so many ties that even people who should know better (BPro) think it. Since when has a +5.8 WARP guy not been worth $13M? His park adjusted slash line is .278/.342/.516. He's a defensive stud. People need to see through the noise and realize that Beltre has been a very good player and no one in Seattle should be happy to see him go.


Feb 27, 2009 11:37 AM
rating: 2
 
Fresh Hops

Kevin--

I'm really interested in Cleto. Could you give me a sentence or two on him? What's the chance he's in next year's top 11?

Feb 27, 2009 11:40 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Chances are solid. He's a little guy with a HUGE arm, we're talking up to 97, but he's also a guy who right now is kind of a one trick pony with little secondary stuff.

Feb 27, 2009 12:28 PM
 
zywica

Little guy? I've only seen one picture of him but he appeared to be pretty thick, with thick legs, and his bio lists him at 6-3, 218.

Feb 27, 2009 19:29 PM
rating: 0
 
ccweinmann

So, Kevin, splain yourself. Why the Beltre dig? (just so you can understand why we all want to know, a huge frustration for Seattle fans who pay attention is the number of casual Seattle fans, writers, etc., that still talk about Beltre's contract like it was bad, while completely ignoring park effects and defense.)

Feb 27, 2009 12:42 PM
rating: 3
 
Marsdt79

It sounds like Triunfel might not have the power to move to 3B, but I've read other places about him moving the other direction from SS over to 2B. Power isn't as much of a concern there as it is at 3B. Is the move over to 2B still a possibility over 3b, or does the line "he'll likely lose the athleticism needed to play up the middle", definately exclude the move to 2B as well?

Feb 27, 2009 13:03 PM
rating: 0
 
mymrbig

Seems like moving to 2B would waste his cannon arm a little, and if range is a problem at SS then it will still be more of a problem at 2B than it would be at 3B (where traditionally a good 1st step and good reactions are a little more important than overall range).

Feb 27, 2009 13:44 PM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

LOL....Halman a five star. And Fernando Martinez wasn't.

Not adding up.

Feb 27, 2009 13:50 PM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

Don't get me wrong. Not saying Halman isn't 5 stars, but F-Mart is two years younger and at the same level.

Feb 27, 2009 15:19 PM
rating: 0
 
Dr. Dave

Franklin Gutierrez misses the age cutoff by less than 6 weeks; where would he have fit on the combined list?

Feb 27, 2009 13:52 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Somewhere at the bottom. I'm not a huge believer, but lets see how he plays CF every day first.

Feb 27, 2009 15:54 PM
 
fellajsmall

Adrian Beltre..I am pretty surprised he is getting so much love from M fans

13 mil/year gets you 25HR and .320 OBP and your justification is his defense?

Feb 27, 2009 14:19 PM
rating: 0
 
Aaron/YYZ

All World defense is worth it, and you do have to check the park-adjusted numbers when you consider how harsh Safeco is on RHB.

Feb 27, 2009 15:02 PM
rating: 0
 
fellajsmall

the size of the park has little to do with poor OBP

Feb 28, 2009 23:28 PM
rating: -1
 
Fresh Hops

However, SAFECO inflates K% by 6%, depresses walks, and, oh yeah, outfield fly balls are much harder to get on base with than home runs.

Parks have a significant effect on OBP, and SAFEFO affects OBP negatively.

Mar 01, 2009 08:15 AM
rating: 1
 
eighteen

Also consider the solid numbers he put up last year despite playing with a painful thumb (hit .400 in September) and being constantly pitched around.

The man's been nothing but solid. I think people who don't appreciate that simply had unrealistic expectations that 2004 wasn't a career year.

Feb 27, 2009 20:42 PM
rating: 0
 
Fresh Hops

Beltre's park adjusted line: .278/.342/.516. Or a little short of what Longoria did last year. Did Longoria hit last year, or was he a rookie bust?

Defense is the new walk dude. A run saved is worth just as much as a run earned. It turns out that at any given position, the spread in defensive skill is about 30 runs. It turns out that the average value of one play in the infield is about .65 runs. So if Adrian Beltre makes about 20 plays more in one season than the average 3B (he does), defensively he's worth 13 (=.65*20) runs. That's great glove work.

Defense is the new walk.

Feb 27, 2009 23:17 PM
rating: 6
 
fellajsmall
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

yes, lets compare him to Longoria..a guy who put up better numbers and only made 12.5 million less than Beltre did last year.

Feb 28, 2009 23:30 PM
rating: -6
 
Fresh Hops

Comparing salaries of club controlled players with free agent contracts is pointless.

You're not understanding my point. When we look at park neutral figures, Longoria and Beltre fairly comparable batters. Beltre strikes out less, walks the same amount and his power suffers in a brutal stadium for RH batters. Beltre's .512 slugging in away games in 2008 is pretty suggestive. Longoria is a little better, but if you think Beltre is a mediocre hitter, you need to realize that than means that Longoria is just a little better than mediocre. Longoria is much better than mediocre, which means that Beltre isn't mediocre.

Mar 01, 2009 08:26 AM
rating: 2
 
gbrisbee

I came in to complain that Rikkert Faneyte was born in the Netherlands and had a home run, but my crack research team has informed me that Faneyte had 132 homerless at-bats in the majors. Dang. Faneyte will always have the edge in triples, though. Take that, Eenhoorn!

Feb 27, 2009 15:04 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

This is totally awesome, because when I first looked it up, I was also totally sure that at some point Faneyte took somebody deep, so I doubled and triple checked, and like you, I realized that never happened. He used to be good for 10 or so a year in the upper minors.

Feb 27, 2009 15:56 PM
 
samuelpage

Mike Carp: still no respect.

Feb 27, 2009 21:11 PM
rating: -2
 
Fresh Hops

Yeah Kevin, how about Carp? He began AA last season at 21 and went .299/.403/.471, which would seem to spell some promise. But not even a "Just missed" score. Too clumsy at 1B? Struggles against lefties? Some kind of quad-A flag?

Feb 28, 2009 10:29 AM
rating: 0
 
Vilica

Do scouts really say "Hits for power when he gets his arms extended?" No MLB hitter has his arms extended at the point of contact. That is the definition of a long swing and bat drag.

I figured I'd mention it because I always saw Kevin post that blurb when talking about power numbers. It doesn't make sense.

Feb 28, 2009 02:48 AM
rating: 0
 
sockeye

Who knew M's fans were such a rowdy bunch :)?

Feb 28, 2009 10:05 AM
rating: 2
 
Fresh Hops

We did. We have two rabbidly sabermetric blogs that we all read every day. They're run by (among others) former BP writers, Dave Cameron of fan graphs, and the guy who invented the tRA BaseRuns model for pitching. Oh, and the guy who wrote the THT entry for the M's. Plus, everyone in our fair city can program computers and solve equations (we actually have special versions of MS Windows that kick ass and come with RetroSheet software but we don't let them leave the city.)

Feb 28, 2009 10:16 AM
rating: 3
 
fellajsmall

how impressive.

Feb 28, 2009 23:35 PM
rating: -1
 
Adam Madison

Yeah, seriously. Proud much?

Also, the comments aren't used to harass the writers on some little indiscretion. Get over the Beltre crap, it's not a big deal.

Mar 03, 2009 04:59 AM
rating: 0
 
PBunyan25

Where does Liddi belong on this list as of today?

Jun 13, 2009 10:00 AM
rating: 0
 
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