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February 26, 2009

Team Health Reports

Kansas City Royals

by Will Carroll

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Head Trainer: Nick Swartz
Player Days Lost: 847
Total Dollars Lost: $5.1 million
Injury Cost: $11.8 million

Trend: Positive. In an "other than that, how was the play" kind of way, the Royals had an average season after two previous years during which they had lost over a quarter of their payroll to the DL. They did it by playing with a short roster more often than they had in the past to avoid making DL moves, but it's unclear whether it was a matter of some good luck and a bit of management by Trey Hillman, or if they had made real changes in the way they handle injuries. The potluck look to last year's injury report shows no real trend; no one position, and no time- or injury-related patterns. Charlie Eppes says "there's no such thing as too random," but I like to find reasons for what I see. In the past, there has been great deal of discussion about Swartz and his staff as being too standoffish, especially to young players who felt that they couldn't be proactive with their concerns. That's a major issue for any staff, especially one that's shown poor results. Anyone can be lucky for one year, but this season will reveal whether or not the Royals have a good medical staff, or if they're going to be satisfied with being merely average.

The Shape of the Season:

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36 comments have been left for this article.

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code of conduct

amacrae

(36364)

I think there's a very good chance Meche will breakdown this season. He was one of only two players (Sabathia is the other one) who threw 3500+ pitches in '08 and '07. From the limited research I have (and admittedly the small sample it creates) throwing this many pitches two seasons in a row rarely works out well.

Feb 26, 2009 09:44 AM

rating: 0

Joe Lefko

(39531)

"top of the green = almost a yellow" (soria)? "even this low yellow seems a little high to me" (greinke)? your choice of color modifiers always confuses me.

Feb 26, 2009 09:56 AM

rating: 0

Will Carroll

BP staff

(1112)

Joe, I cant tell you why you don't grasp this, but it seems that people just don't get it. There's three bands: low is green, medium is yellow, high is red. There's an underlying number.

For example (and these aren't the real numbers), let's say it's pure thirds -- 0-33 is green, 34-66 is yellow, and 67-100 is red. A 32 is a "high green" and a 35 is a "low yellow."

I'm not sure why people have such a hard time grasping this one since Im consistent in how I describe it.

Feb 26, 2009 10:22 AM

Paul Andrew Burnett

(2093)

I'm colorblind, so I all I have to go by are the words. If you use different shades or hues of green, red, or yellow, it's completely lost on people like me.

Feb 26, 2009 10:40 AM

rating: -1

Evan

(47)

He doesn't use shades. All the greens are the same.

Only the descriptors differ.

Feb 26, 2009 12:12 PM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

Instead of green, yellow and red, just think of it as "worries", "concerns" and "problems". In other words, a low yellow would mean "low concerns" and a high green would be "high worries" while implying no real concerns.

Feb 26, 2009 12:54 PM

rating: 0

eighteen

(1432)

I think of it as "profuse sweating," "uncontrollable twitching," and "whimpering in a dark corner."

Works great.

Feb 27, 2009 08:12 AM

rating: 0

ElAngelo

(942)

Maybe people view it in reverse---that red is the norm and green is the outlier, so the meter is upside-down.

Feb 26, 2009 10:43 AM

rating: 0

Nathan

(28175)

Why not share the real numbers? Is hiding them necessary to keep the system proprietary, or do you think it just seems smoother this way? I have nothing against the color system, but I'd appreciate it if we could get the actual numbers, additionally. However, I understand if you think that poses a risk of reverse-engineering.

Feb 26, 2009 14:48 PM

rating: 1

Will Carroll

BP staff

(1112)

Honestly, without the baseline numbers, you couldn't reverse engineer it well, but basically using bands allows the system error and the system IS error filled. If PECOTA misses on a batting average, he's going to be off by, what, 0.020 in a normal case? (If PECOTA says Jones is going to bat .300 and he bats .280, is that a hit or a miss?) For THR, it's never so clear because he is or isn't injured. One of the guys who helped me with it says it will work in large numbers, but that I won't have enough player seasons until about 20 full seasons (I have seven).

Mar 01, 2009 23:35 PM

Christopher Miller

(88)

I think it's the idea that green is at the bottom. It's as if, when describing the College top 25, you talked about how "high" (bad) a ranking seems for the #23 team or how low (good) it seems for the #2 team. Of course, we use those terms to refer to positions on the list, not the underlying numbers.

Feb 26, 2009 10:40 AM

rating: 0

wilk75

(32459)

perfect analogy....green should be high, not low.

Feb 26, 2009 11:41 AM

rating: -1

Will Carroll

BP staff

(1112)

Have you seen a stoplight?

Feb 26, 2009 13:34 PM

Christopher Miller

(88)

most certainly--your system metaphorically follows the stoplight. but what I'm saying is that our normal use of "high" and "low" are in inverse order to how (perhaps) they "should" be. We speak of "high" rankings that are actually "low" numbers. So when you speak of high green, I think for many people, that references "good" rather than the "bad" (within the green range) that you intend. It's not that you're wrong--it's just that your usages conflict with other , engrained usages, especially amongst sports fans. Does it make any sense that #1 is a "high" ranking? Of course not. But the usage and the precedent exist--just as the traffic light does.

Feb 26, 2009 13:55 PM

rating: 0

Ben Solow

(35415)

Still, this is not a ranking in the same sense as Kevin Goldstein's prospect lists are rankings; Will doesn't release (to the best of my knowledge) a ranking of "top 100 injury risks". That would be hard to understand. I really can't see how someone can think of this similar to college top-25 rankings...he's talking about risk. High means more risk...it's as simple as possible.

And I'm also color blind, so that really makes no difference.

Feb 26, 2009 14:13 PM

rating: 1

Will Carroll

BP staff

(1112)

Exactly. It's my failure to figure out how to explain it any more clearly that's the issue here.

Feb 26, 2009 14:42 PM

antonsirius

(1690)

The system is describing injury risk, not health. Higher = more risk. Seems perfectly normal to me.

Feb 27, 2009 00:30 AM

rating: 3

hotstatrat

(22689)

That's the key. The confusion comes from this being called "Health Reports", but Will's "high" and "low" are describing "Risk" not "Health". So, perhaps, these should be called "Injury Risk Reports".

Feb 27, 2009 08:08 AM

rating: 0

Nathan

(28175)

For what it's worth, Will, my intuition is the same as yours. I'll bet there are a lot of people who see it each way.

Feb 26, 2009 16:27 PM

rating: 1

ChapelHeel66

(16753)

I'm not sure it matters the reason why "people have such a hard time grasping" the concept. (I'm not one of the ones struggling with it, although I am confused why the THR reports are sometimes different than the THR spreadsheet).

Anyway, this is a premium service, and I think there should be concern when we see a system that tends to blame the users for not understanding it, rather putting some of the responsibility on the system. It is no doubt a combination of the two.

It seems to me the system is only as good as its usefulness to its end-user. If THR was a research project being used by BP solely to draw conclusions or serve as the basis for further research, that's one thing. And that is no doubt true, in part, for the THRs. But ultimately, BP subscribers pay for this kind of information. It has to be useful and understandable to the customers.

It's like a teacher saying "I have a great lesson plan, I'm really smart and I'm a really good teacher. It's not my fault the students don't understand it. I keep explaining it over and over." Ultimately, what's the use of a system that others (particularly paying customers -- and bright ones) don't understand? Maybe it's good, but not intuitive to the people who didn't design the system.

Perhaps it's time for a revision to the output/reporting function of the system, or at least an acknowledgment that a revision is under consideration to accommodate the user's needs.

Feb 26, 2009 11:35 AM

rating: -1

iillllii

(43883)

It couldn't be more clear to me - just remember it's a scale of risk - red is high risk, green is low risk, yellow in between. So if someone is a low green, it's a player with low risk among that pool (green) of low risk players. If someone is a high yellow, it's high risk among that pool (yellow) of medium risk players.

Feb 26, 2009 12:22 PM

rating: 1

baconjeff

(20029)

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Making fun of Zack Greinke for having social anxiety disorder? You're a real class act, Will Carroll!

Feb 26, 2009 13:22 PM

rating: -6

Will Carroll

BP staff

(1112)

Where did you see that I made fun of him? I most certainly did not.

Feb 26, 2009 13:35 PM

adkbaseballchronicle

(9525)

I know Will didn't make fun of him, but even if someone did, I doubt Greinke would care. He's going to make more money than any of us combined over the next decade.

Feb 26, 2009 16:18 PM

rating: 0

baconjeff

(20029)

"I'm also no psychiatrist, but I don't know how someone with social anxiety disorder dates this girl."
what? so someone with social anxiety disorder doesn't deserve to be with a beautiful woman?

Feb 26, 2009 19:40 PM

rating: 0

adkbaseballchronicle

(9525)

For all anyone here knows, Zach is just a great guy. We already know he has a lot of money. Him dating a hot girl is probably a no-brainer.

Feb 27, 2009 05:17 AM

rating: 0

BrettG

(14857)

Do your research. They met in high school and have been dating for 7 1/2 years. It is not because he has money that he has an attractive girlfriend.

Feb 27, 2009 07:28 AM

rating: 0

eighteen

(1432)

Knock it off with the hypersensitivity, sitzpinkler.

Feb 27, 2009 08:21 AM

rating: 0

Nathan

(28175)

If you make fun of somebody by pointing out that they date a supermodel, well, you're welcome to make fun of me anytime.

Feb 26, 2009 14:49 PM

rating: 0

anthonyjoseph

(16104)

Kind of disturbed about Gordon's back issue. Has anyone ever thought about the possibility that it is not playing that causes all of these back problems, but the actual sitting on the bench which is not ergonimically sound (don't know the spelling? People who sit in offices have special chairs so their backs don't get screwed up. Are MLB baseball benches designed to protect the curvature of the back? Anyone with a bad back will tell you how important it is to sit in a proper chair to avoid further damage or just chronic pain.

Feb 26, 2009 14:22 PM

rating: 0

Will Carroll

BP staff

(1112)

You know, I actually did a couple weeks back watching soccer, where the benches - actually dugouts in some stadiums - are very ergonomic Recaro chairs. That said, I can't think of any situation where a player has been injured by the bench or sitting on it. Maybe George Brett ...

Feb 26, 2009 14:43 PM

FalcoT

(47044)

Wasn't it Jered Weaver who ripped up his finger on a splinter?

Feb 27, 2009 18:51 PM

rating: 0

anthonyjoseph

(16104)

Actually, I wasn't referring to a momentary injury but rather the poor posture over the course of a substantial length of time that may take a toll on the health of a player's back. I know there is something to this because non-playing athletes have to deal with sore backs and a non-ergonomic chair exascerbates the problem and may lead to further damage. Make sense? I think this is a serious and over looked issue. Sitting on a bench for 162 games?

Feb 27, 2009 21:33 PM

rating: 0

West21

(16224)

I've also wanted to see Soria start.....oh well...

Feb 26, 2009 18:19 PM

rating: 0

antonsirius

(1690)

I can't believe you busted out a Numb3rs reference, Will. Yeesh.

Feb 27, 2009 00:36 AM

rating: 0

Simon Chan

(13099)

Actually, the Charlie Eppes reference amused me, to the point where this is the first time I've ever commented on a BP article. Well played, WC, well played.

Mar 12, 2009 09:42 AM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

You Could Look It Up: ... (02/26)

<< Previous Column

Team Health Reports: O... (02/25)

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Team Health Reports: T... (03/02)

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Royal Pain? (02/27)

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