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February 22, 2009

Future Shock

Yankees Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

top 11 prospects

NEW YORK YANKEES
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jesus Montero, C
2. Austin Jackson, CF
Three-Star Prospects
3. Dellin Betances, RHP
4. Austin Romine, C
5. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
6. Andrew Brackman, RHP
7. Jeremy Bleich, LHP
8. Alfredo Aceves, RHP
9. Zach McAllister, RHP
10. Phil Coke, LHP
11. Mark Melancon, RHP

Just Missed: Brad Suttle, 3B; Kelvin De Leon, RF; Wilkins De La Rosa, LHP

Ranking Challenges: It's a very tough system to rank from top to bottom. Montero comes with positional questions, Brackman has a high ceiling combined with a plethora of negatives, and there are a lot of young, high-ceiling prospects and older, low-ceiling types.

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39 comments have been left for this article.

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Dan

(40550)

Love the top 11s. Could you give us the quick and dirty on Kelvin De Leon?

Feb 22, 2009 09:51 AM

rating: 0

Joe Lefko

(39531)

yeah, follow up to this...

kelvin was a top 11 last year. what happened for his stock to drop so low (especially considering several guys ahead of him-joba, kennedy, tabata, horne, and ramirez are no longer ranked as yankee prospects)?

Feb 22, 2009 10:19 AM

rating: 1

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

He didn't really drop much at all. You talk about the guys no longer ranked, but as you can so, there were a lot of guys who either stepped up or returned to form. De Leon got some very nice reviews out of the DSL, but there were some concerns about how much swing and miss he has. He made the just missed section, so I still like him quite a bit.

Feb 22, 2009 11:27 AM

DGBL

(32998)

How close was Brett Marshall to making it?

Feb 22, 2009 10:00 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

He'd be in my top 20.

Feb 22, 2009 11:31 AM

Ilya

(31373)

Austin Jackson and Angel Villanova (ranked 46 and 47, respectively) are 5 stars, but Fernando Martinez and Wilin Rosario (ranked 44 and 45, respectively) are 4 stars?

Feb 22, 2009 10:01 AM

rating: 2

Meddler1

(47115)

This is exactly what I was going to ask.

Feb 22, 2009 10:58 AM

rating: 1

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Yeah, you've found an bit of a weakness in the system. Basically, 5-star for me is a top 50 level prospect. Now, until I actually DO a Top 100, that's a bit of a guessing game. I thought they'd rank lower personally, and then when I added it all up there were less 5-star guy than expected, so I'd up Martinez and Rosario.

Feb 22, 2009 11:26 AM

Meddler1

(47115)

Fair enough. I guess the question is then is the back end of the top 50 a little weak this year? Asked another way, is the gap between a guy like Jackson and a guy like Rasmus larger than you'd usually expect in comparing the 2nd best outfield prospect to the 11th best? How about comparing Carrasco to Bumgarner? It almost does seem like the formers in this case should be given a lower "grade" than the latters, giving them all five stars doesn't quite do justice to their respective statuses as prospects.

Feb 22, 2009 15:53 PM

rating: 0

Alex Nixon

(31305)

You're going to get a million of these "but what about X" questions, Kevin, and I'm loathe to add to them. However, I'm curious on your thoughts on Jairo Heredia. I've heard nice things about him, despite being so young.

Feb 22, 2009 10:44 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

There's certainly some things to like, but he doesn't have a ton of velocity, so he's more of a 15-20 guy for me.

Feb 22, 2009 11:30 AM

mwashuc06

(47497)

Are there going to be any big names that are going to play for SI in SS-A this year?

Feb 22, 2009 11:43 AM

rating: 0

bberdl20

(8359)

If Montero's perfect world projection is as a 1B with an above average bat why is he a 5-star prospect? I understand that he hit the baseball very well in low-A ball and that he's young, but because he'll be either a 1B or a DH he must hit. There is a lot of room for his skills to drop to the point where he is only a 3-star guy .

Feb 22, 2009 12:16 PM

rating: 0

mafrth77

(29310)

Kevin, what makes Jesus Montero the #38 prospect while Max Ramirez Doesn't make the top 100? Ramirez has the better numbers at a higher level and is both closer to the big leagues and seemingly more likely to stat at catcher. isn't Ramirez the better prospect?

Feb 22, 2009 12:31 PM

rating: 0

jibs

(23090)

Montero is 5 years younger than Ramirez, and Montero's low-A season at age 18 was arguably more impressive than Ramirez's low-A season at age 21.

Feb 22, 2009 15:12 PM

rating: 1

mafrth77

(29310)

Their high A seasons were close, I'll give you that, but Ramirez has the longer track record, posting a .900+ OPS for 4 striaght years, and he is ready to play in the majors now. Montero is what- 5 years away? and his youth isn't really an asset when they are already talking about 1b/DH. Montero's upside is what Ramirez is right now- a .300/.400/.500 hitter who is probably a DH.

Feb 22, 2009 18:09 PM

rating: 0

David Coonce

(29682)

If Montero and Romine are both catching for the same team, doesn't that hinder Romine's development? Or, for that matter, Montero's? Because one of them is going to take at-bats from the other, right? Or is there a pre-arranged time-sharing arrangement in single-A ball that comes from the organization?

Feb 22, 2009 12:53 PM

rating: 0

Adam Hobson

(29493)

It's more that they are taking defensive innings from each other. When the one is catching, the other is DHing.

Considering that Romine will probably take a full year at High-A, AA and then AAA just to work on his bat, I think there will be plenty of time for him to refine his catching skills while splitting time.

I almost hope this split of duties lasts all the way to the major leagues. I know that even in the best case scenario Montero will never be even an average catcher, but if he can develop into only a slightly below average catcher, then it lets the Yankees have lots of strategic options with allowing Romine to catch 100 or so games a year, while giving 40 or so to Montero. That will allow Romine to stay fresh, while keeping Montero's bat special for 40 games a year, even though it may be less special the other 100 games.

Feb 22, 2009 15:19 PM

rating: 1

David Coonce

(29682)

Thanks for that. I completely forgot about the DH option, although, as you note, that would seem to limit Montero's defensive development even more. It seems even stranger now that the Yankees would have blocked off first base for the next 7 years. I can't really imagine where they're going to put this guy, unless they decide he's going to be a career DH, which might be a first.

Feb 23, 2009 05:51 AM

rating: 0

Rob_in_CT

(25572)

A lot can happen in the time it will take for Montero to be ML-ready. So yeah, right now 1B looks blocked for 7 years. The Yankees certainly hope it is. But there are certainly scenarios (less rosy for the Yanks) wherein it's not. Maybe we end up seeing the aging veteran Teixiera mentoring the young 1B Montero in 5 years... who knows? Maybe Montero manages to be the new Jorge Posada (questionable behind the plate, but man can he hit).

Feb 23, 2009 08:05 AM

rating: 0

amazin_mess

(9525)

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

C'mon Kevin.

Jackson's a five star and Fernando Martinez isn't? Ridiculous.

Lemme guess...you had your Jeter jersey on as you wrote this.

Feb 22, 2009 16:01 PM

rating: -38

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

A. Read above.
B. I'm a Mets fan
C. Who I'm a fan of has nothing to do with my rankings. How unprofessional would that be? How about ridiculously so. I don't have the mindset to wake up and say I'm going to push up/down somebody because I'm a fan or not a fan, I just don't have the same kind of emotional attachment I guess.

Sorry to ruin your ridiculous argument.

Feb 22, 2009 16:53 PM

amazin_mess

(9525)

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

About as professional as that response, I suppose.

Feb 22, 2009 16:58 PM

rating: -29

alskor

(39403)

...but much more professional that accusing a professional of bias.

Especially when, if you had read the comments already instead of just rushing to post, you would have seen Kevin already said:

"Yeah, you've found an bit of a weakness in the system. Basically, 5-star for me is a top 50 level prospect. Now, until I actually DO a Top 100, that's a bit of a guessing game. I thought they'd rank lower personally, and then when I added it all up there were less 5-star guy than expected, so I'd up Martinez and Rosario."

That's right - this shouldnt even be an issue because he has changed FMart and Rosario to five star.

Feb 22, 2009 17:35 PM

rating: 3

amazin_mess

(9525)

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Yeah - he changed them after the fact. LOL

Feb 22, 2009 17:45 PM

rating: -24

tdrury

(12878)

And explained perfectly how his methodology allowed it to happen in the first place. I'm not sure what else you're looking for.

Feb 22, 2009 21:20 PM

rating: 3

vtadave

(11550)

Just typed "Sundance Kid" into MS Word, kicked off the Thesaurus, and the word "tool" rose to the top.

Feb 22, 2009 22:03 PM

rating: 0

Matt Hunter

(45677)

never seen someone kick off more restricted comments in my time here.

Feb 22, 2009 23:00 PM

rating: 2

amazin_mess

(9525)

BLOCKED

This comment has been blocked due to inappropriate content. Click here to view anyway.

Shpx lbh.

Feb 23, 2009 00:13 AM

Matt Hunter

(45677)

ha, further proof.

Feb 23, 2009 00:15 AM

rating: 0

eighteen

(1432)

Now THERE'S a professional response.

Feb 23, 2009 00:26 AM

rating: 3

alskor

(39403)

One criticism... this list seems to have numerous candidates for "weakest three star guy to make a top 11."

Just based on your descriptions it seems like many of these guys are similar to the two star guys youve written up. For instance, you just gave Tyler Sample two stars... and his write up sound a lot better than a few of the three star guys on this list.

Feb 22, 2009 17:43 PM

rating: 0

mattymatty2000

(17492)

I hate to bring this up, but in light of some comments on this thread I have to ask: what does one have to do to have their commenting privileges restricted or revoked? It might be something BP should look at.

Feb 23, 2009 06:24 AM

rating: 1

beatolympics

(47430)

I'm like Butch Cassidy and Michael is like Mozart. You try and hurt Mozart, you're gonna get a bullet in your head, courtesy of Butch Cassidy.

Feb 23, 2009 08:53 AM

rating: -1

amazin_mess

(9525)

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Look - the eff you was uncalled for - I agree.

All I did was make a comment about the rankings pointing out an obvious flaw and I got a snotty comment from Kevin, not that it was unjustified.

Then things turned sour once someone else called me a tool at which point things went to total hell.

Feb 23, 2009 10:10 AM

rating: -12

eighteen

(1432)

That's not the first time you've dropped the F-bomb in these threads. You don't want to be called a tool, stop acting like one.

Feb 23, 2009 10:49 AM

rating: 2

amazin_mess

(9525)

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Will do, Mom.

Feb 23, 2009 11:43 AM

rating: -12

Matt Hunter

(45677)

Hey man all I did was point out that I had never seen some one as restricted. I never said you were a tool. I obvioulsy don't know you.

The fact is the manner that you point this out makes it look like it was written in a Boston Red Sox message board saying stuff like "must have had your Jeter Jersey on."

These guys are professionals, and I am all for people questioning them and going to other sources beyond BP but it is just the way you put yourself out there.

Feb 23, 2009 16:38 PM

rating: 1

huggirl

(40629)

Any love for Christian Garcia?

Feb 25, 2009 14:47 PM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

Prospectus Q&A: George... (02/22)

<< Previous Column

Future Shock: Twins To... (02/19)

Next Column >>

Future Shock: Athletic... (02/25)

Next Article >>
The Week In Quotes: Fe... (02/23)

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