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February 4, 2009

Triple Fix

American League

by Baseball Prospectus

The National League version of "Triple Fix" is here.

Free-Agent Fix #1, Chicago White Sox: Given the grim PECOTA forecasts of Bartolo Colon (77 1/3 innings and a park-neutral Equivalent ERA of 4.90), Clayton Richard (137 2/3 innings, 5.86 EqERA), and mid-season cavalryman Jose Contreras (5.13 EqERA), the Sox really need a League-Average Innings Muncher (LAIM) to help them field a credible rotation behind their big three. Enter Braden Looper, whose 374 innings and 4.52 ERA over the last two years are as LAIM as the remaining market offers. The most ground ball-oriented of the remaining starters (1.61 GB/FB last year), Looper's a good fit for the South Siders' homer haven of a home, and well capable of bettering his PECOTA forecast (4.98 EqERA).—Jay Jaffe

Let's Make a Deal #1, Cleveland Indians: Names and sheer numbers in the rotation don't necessarily equal answers for a team that needs to shore up its annually fragile bid at contention. The track records of Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Jeremy Sowers have all been tales of woe in different keys, with health, performance, or the absence of upside representing problems for each. Dealing for somebody who's had his moments in a rotation but might nevertheless be available at relatively low cost before the season might sound tough to pull off, but the Cubs' Chad Gaudin is essentially stuck in an insurance policy-oriented middle-relief role, and would be worth trading for to provide the Tribe with a more reliable front five capable of delivering winnable games if the lineup's humming again.—Christina Kahrl

Free-Agent Fix #2, LA Angels of Anaheim: Having reviewed the marginal gains to be had among the potential suitors of Manny Ramirez, it's quite apparent that the Angels occupy a sweet spot. They've got money, given that their $160 million offer to Mark Teixeira was spurned and wasn't really spent elsewhere. They've got need, given that their .413 slugging percentage was ninth in the league even with Teixeira's strong two months, and that neither Kendry Morales nor Juan Rivera profile as robust additions to the lineup. And they've got a vacancy at DH, which is likely to be Manny's best defensive position in the coming years.—Jay Jaffe

Free-Agent Fix #3, New York Yankees: One free agent who's received surprisingly little mention, particularly given this situation, is Jim Edmonds. Even with a miserable first month in San Diego, he hit a combined .235/.343/.479 with 20 homers in 401 plate appearances. Though no longer an everyday player, PECOTA thinks he's capable of building on his Cubby exploits in his age-39 season, projecting him for a .265/.363/.491 line in 370 plate appearances, albeit with subpar defense. The hitch is that Edmonds' huge platoon split (.169/.233/.293 against lefties over the past three years) is a poor fit with potential caddies Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and even Nick Swisher, who are all better against right-handers as well.—Jay Jaffe