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December 5, 2008

Transaction Analysis

Feeling Short?

by Christina Kahrl

BOSTON RED SOX Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

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Signed LHP Billy Traber to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [12/1]
Signed 2B-R Dustin Pedroia to a six-year, $40 million contract extension, with a 2015 club option for $11 million (with a $500,000 buyout). [12/3]
Signed RHP Junichi Tazawa to a three-year, ˜$3 million contract. [12/4]

The Pedroia deal is the major news item here, at least as far as baseball at the highest level is concerned. By inking their recently minted MVP to just beyond his 31^st birthday, they should have guaranteed themselves not having to worry about arbitration or finding another second baseman until 2015, they locked in what should be his best years, and they got him for what is essentially a below-market price through what would have been his pre-free agency (counting his $1.5 million signing bonus, a back-loaded $20 million over four seasons), then $10 million apiece for what would have been his first two years beyond the Red Sox's contractual control, and then the option with the remarkably cheap buyout. (That last is a nice touch—they've given Pedroia financial security, and they got back a very easy out if they don't want him for that last year.) I wouldn't get too worked up on the specifics of how much of a bargain this is relative to last year's MORP on his PECOTA card—that valuation should improve because of his exceeding his baseline projection this past season by hitting for so much more power, but will also be affected by a few tweaks to the replacement level that will be incorporated into the model for 2009. Keeping in mind my not being counted among BP's sharper knives, my guess is that means his MORP values will drop as the replacement level goes up, but last season's value of $76.2 million through 2014 before the improved performance should give you a pretty healthy hint as far as how much the Sox did a great job of leveraging their control over the next four years into a bit of mutually satisfying security for the organization and the player alike.