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November 17, 2008

Future Shock

Rockies Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

COLORADO ROCKIES
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Dexter Fowler, CF
2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Wilin Rosario, C
Three-Star Prospects
4. Christian Friedrich, LHP
5. Casey Weathers, RHP
6. Michael McKenry, C
7. Hector Gomez, SS
8. Connor Graham, RHP
9. Eric Young Jr., 2B/OF
10. Charles Blackmon, CF
Two-Star Prospects
11. Seth Smith, OF

Just Missed: Darin Holcomb, 3B; Chris Nelson, SS; Chaz Roe, RHP

Ranking Challenges: Fowler has more upside and a longer track record than Chacin, so he beats him out for the number one spot. It's also hard to rank a guy like Weathers, who will most likely miss all of 2009, but you have to have some faith in the recovery trends for Tommy John surgeries of late. The same goes for a guy like Gomez, who, though he missed practically all of 2008 with injuries, is still young and talented.

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23 comments have been left for this article.

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mymrbig

(38334)

What are your thoughts on Chris Nelson? Stats were certainly horrible this year, anything to hope for from the scouting end? Any injuries to explain his horribleness?

Nov 17, 2008 09:28 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Nelson had a really bad year at Double-A that can't be totally washed away due to some minor injury stuff. That said, he's been really good in Arizona, looks much better at 2B, and I can tell you that the Rockies still believe in him quite a bit. He'd be in the 12-15 range for me, so that's not so bad.

Nov 17, 2008 10:19 AM

mymrbig

(38334)

Thanks! What kind of power does Nelson have? I don't remember reading anywhere that his power was anything special, but now I seem to remember Keith Law saying he hit one mile in Arizona and that he has good raw power. How is this tool looking for him? Who would you like more as the future 2nd baseman for the Rockies?

Nov 17, 2008 10:24 AM

rating: 0

DGBL

(32998)

You briefly mentioned Greg Reynolds, who ranked 3rd on this list last year. Is it time to give up on him long-term, or should we give him a mulligan, ala Tulo?

Nov 17, 2008 09:52 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I've never been a huge Reynolds fan, and his career K/9 of under six in the minors, and WAY less in the majors just scares the hell out of me.

Nov 17, 2008 10:20 AM

dcarroll

(1938)

Any thoughts on Iannetta? Do you think he is likely to sustain his 08 performance? He was solid across the board (RHP/LHP, home/road, etc.), but he also strikes out quite a bit and he is not that young.

Nov 17, 2008 10:29 AM

rating: 0

achase

(26956)

Slight error on McKenry, you note his 2008 stats being from AA rather than High A.

Beyond that, I've been curious about Modesto's park factor. Cal Lg is obviously a high octane offensive environment, but McKenry led Modesto in several offensive categories with relatively modest numbers. Is it a much worse offensive environment than the rest of the Cal Lg, or did the Nuts just not have a good offensive team?

Related to that, how heavily do you weigh AFL performance? 9 homers and a 1.252 OPS in 24 games for McKenry has to factor in a some level, no?

Thanks for the excellent report.

Nov 17, 2008 10:53 AM

rating: 0

DGBL

(32998)

How confident were you in giving Chacin a 5? I always had the impression he was a guy you liked but didn't necessarily love and as such expected a 4... but have no qualms with a 5.

I had read before that his changeup was a "go to" pitch but apparently not?

Nov 17, 2008 11:50 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Five-star just means a guy who I would consider for the Top 50 in the 100 -- I don't think that's a reach at all. His changeup is definitely a plus offering, but I think one of his strengths is that he doesn't necessarily have a go-to one, as he has so many options.

Nov 17, 2008 11:55 AM

mattseward

(30445)

Kevin, you didn't mention Corpas on the under 25's. Do you think he is a closer or a set up guy in the future?

Nov 17, 2008 11:59 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Manny turns 26 in December, thus ineligible. He doesn't have closer stuff and should be more of a setup type for me.

Nov 17, 2008 12:48 PM

mattseward

(30445)

Ok thanks Kevin. I was a little curious as Keith Law had him pegged last year as a potentially elite closer but he looked pretty terrible in 08 for a good part of the season

Nov 17, 2008 14:50 PM

rating: 0

jacobo2u

(29639)

If Street is just a set up guy now, why was pecota so high on him? Street had an off year, who is to say it wasn't just that??

Nov 17, 2008 12:57 PM

rating: 0

Ameer

(31336)

I've been wondering the same thing since people around here seem pretty down on Street these days. Not sure when that happened.

Nov 18, 2008 05:52 AM

rating: 0

wfflprince

(13285)

I don't know about PECOTA. but the comment that he is a setup guy doesn't jive with the fact that he is ranked above Chacin, who was rated a five-star prospect.

Dec 09, 2008 21:16 PM

rating: 0

Matthew Avery

(39859)

Better combo: Hanson/Schafer or Chacin/Fowler?

Nov 17, 2008 13:40 PM

rating: 0

Sharky

(12101)

Hanson/Schafer.

Nov 18, 2008 15:57 PM

rating: 1

mhmckay

(14477)

If the Rockies do move Willy Tavares as rumored, would they plug Eric Young Jr. into the job, or do they have a better internal option?

Nov 17, 2008 14:31 PM

rating: 0

mattseward

(30445)

I would say Fowler would be the guy they look to long term. I don't think I read a scouting report of EY that didn't say 4th OF

Nov 17, 2008 14:52 PM

rating: 0

Sharky

(12101)

Kevin, I really enjoyed your Salvador Dali comment in the profile of Chacin. Totally dorky comment and very entertaining. (I mean that as a compliment)

Nov 17, 2008 16:23 PM

rating: 0

philosofool

(41607)

With Holiday out of the Rockies OF and Gonzales in, how does that affect your estimation of Fowler's path to the Bigs? (I'm assuming that this was written before the trade....)

Nov 17, 2008 18:36 PM

rating: 0

philosofool

(41607)

I'm going to take that back, as you mention Gonzales in in the last bit about their top young talent...

Nov 17, 2008 18:38 PM

rating: 0

phuturephillies

(26368)

Only quibble I'd have is with the omission of Anuery Rodriguez. 299:88 K to BB the last two seasons, pitched well in the CAL as a 20 year old, and actually cut down on his home runs allowed. I'm pretty sure I've read he doesn't throw 95 or have a wipeout secondary pitch, but he seems like a good #3/4 starter possibly, preferable to a guy like Seth Smith who is more of a fringe guy, in my opinion of course.

Nov 19, 2008 09:49 AM

rating: 0

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