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November 13, 2008

Future Shock

Reds Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

top 11 prospects

CINCINNATI REDS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
Four-Star Prospects
2. Todd Frazier, INF
3. Drew Stubbs, CF
Three-Star Prospects
4. Chris Valaika, SS
5. Neftali Soto, 3B
6. Yorman Rodriguez, CF
7. Juan Duran, OF
8. Juan Francisco, 3B
9. Kyle Lotzker, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Daryl Thompson, RHP
11. Devin Mesoraco, C

Just Missed: Zach Cozart, SS; Josh Roenicke, RHP; Zach Stewart, RHP

Ranking Challenges: Yonder is a clear number one for me, and Frazier/Stubbs are just as obviously the second-tier prospects. It's always difficult to figure out what to do with toolsy 16-year-old Latin American Yorman Rodriguez and 17-year-old Juan Duran. You'd like to maybe leave them off the list and wait for more information, but $4.5 million for the pair says a lot on its own, as do the scouting reports. They were impossible not to include, as the system bottoms out pretty quickly.

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20 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

psugator01

(32968)

my initial impression........babies all over the place......

Nov 13, 2008 10:31 AM

rating: 0

Aaron/YYZ

(34268)

Beyond the top 3, it looks like a lot of guys to dream on.

Given how poorly the organization seemed to think of Adam Dunn and his strikeouts, it's kind of surprising how many utter hackers they've assembled on this list. Although maybe they're still stuck looking at AVG and RBI's rather than OBP and OPS.

Nov 13, 2008 10:48 AM

rating: 0

Scartore

(4542)

It never really was just the strikeouts that bugged the Reds about the Big Kid. It was a perception that Dunn's total package didn't justify all of his strikeouts. Now we BP readers know that is ... what's the word... oh yeah... STUPID, but that's the way Dunn was perceived here. Marty Brenneman spent a lot of airtime dogging Dunn, and his attitude certainly filtered down to talk radio and the fan base.

Guys who strike out a lot but look like they're trying REAL HARD, those are Reds type of guys... ;)

Nov 13, 2008 11:18 AM

rating: 2

Aaron/YYZ

(34268)

Bad teams, especially the media mouthpieces for bad teams, love to bag on their best players...

Nov 13, 2008 14:12 PM

rating: 0

RedsManRick

(23592)

A little surprised to see Chris Dickerson completely looked over ("The Reds do not have a center fielder right now") and to see Ramon Ramirez not mentioned, though he is admittedly a bit older than most on the list.

But good stuff Kevin. The Reds have a ton of upside in the low minors right now. Unfortunately it's mostly just upside at this point. I'd love to see them flip some of that to take advantage of the window for competition provided by the pre-arb years of Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Volquez. Something like Fransisco and Thompson for Beltre with EE to LF would be a great start.

Nov 13, 2008 13:02 PM

rating: 0

Scartore

(4542)

Dickerson's not any kind of real solution. He's a decent 4th OF, and I could live with him manning center until we do find a real one, but he's exactly the kind of player that Dusty would fall in love with. If he's starting in CF and leading off this April, we're in trouble.

Nov 14, 2008 13:42 PM

rating: 0

smitty25039

(40049)

I was surprised to see Soto at #5. I thought he would be #2 or at worst #3. His numbers in the Midwest League were similar to Bruce's in a smaller sample size.

Nov 13, 2008 13:41 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I think that's projecting quite a bit on Soto. I'm actually a big fan, but his lack of athleticism at such a young age does bother me a bit.

Nov 13, 2008 13:51 PM

smitty25039

(40049)

Overall, I think it was a good list. Kevin, do you have any info on Junior Arias, the young SS the Reds signed out of the DR?

Nov 13, 2008 14:27 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Arias is a nice player, but nowhere near the Duran/Rodriguez level. Pure shortstop, athletic and fluid, not a ton of projection, but a nice pick up.

Nov 13, 2008 17:51 PM

ruben398

(17702)

Bruce is no longer considered a viable CF?

Nov 13, 2008 14:55 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I think Bruce was pretty much always seen as a RF who can play CF in a pinch. That doesn't mean he won't see time there in '09.

Nov 13, 2008 17:49 PM

Scartore

(4542)

If we're gonna play schmucks in 2 OF slots anyways, is their any reason to stretch The Bruce's talent in CF? I'd rather just let him get on with settling into RF and turning into Larry Walker

Nov 14, 2008 13:46 PM

rating: 0

Rob in Alaska

(32088)

I feel like a jerk but I'll point this out anyway: Alonso's perfect world projected OPS of 950 would have put him 4th in the NL last year. Even in a perfect world, that seems a bit much, no?

Nov 13, 2008 19:33 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

That's what perfect world is all about, no?

Nov 13, 2008 19:36 PM

Rob in Alaska

(32088)

It's your world, KG. We're just livin in it.

Nov 13, 2008 20:57 PM

rating: 0

WayneTheMan2421

(43482)

Did Carter Morrison impress in the instructional league?

Nov 14, 2008 08:37 AM

rating: 0

zahniser

(31773)

Sounds like the Reds need to hire a roving instructor to teach baserunning to there prospects. Oh... and get some young pitching.

Nov 14, 2008 08:53 AM

rating: 0

smitty25039

(40049)

Kevin, do you have anything on Carter Morrison? He sounds like a potential steal from what I've heard.

Nov 14, 2008 10:39 AM

rating: 0

WCE

(7237)

Looking at the Reds draft and development strategy (and I haven't heard the MP3 so pardon me if I sound redundant) the important thing that I note is that they HAVE one. Yes, the Reds actually have a plan, and it seems to involve lots of high-risk/high-reward guys.

I think that's a pretty good plan for them, considering the nature of the franchise, and I hope a few of those "dream" players turn out well, because they'll be fun to watch.

Nov 17, 2008 09:14 AM

rating: 0

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