The season’s final Hit List is in the books, much to my relief. But before packing it away for the winter, I’d like to run it through a few paces, starting with one inspired by a reader question pertaining to the final set of rankings: is the Tampa Bay Rays‘ jump from their 2007 ranking the largest ever?
The Rays advanced to the American League Championship Series with a victory over the White Sox on Monday, and finished third on this year’s Hit List, 24 rungs higher than they finished last year. That’s the largest year-to-year leap of any team since I began running the Hit List back in 2005. Here are the top and bottom fives in that time span:
Year Team Rank Prev Diff 2008 Rays 3 27 +24 2006 Tigers 2 21 +19 2008 White Sox 10 28 +18 2007 Cubs 11 27 +16 2006 Dodgers 8 24 +16 2007 White Sox 28 6 -22 2008 Rockies 22 4 -18 2008 Padres 27 10 -17 2007 Twins 18 3 -15 2006 Cardinals 17 2 -15
Note that one team, the 2007 White Sox, figures on both lists, first as a sudden (but not unforeseen) drop last year, and then this year’s surprising recovery. Also among the droppers are the 2006 Cardinals, who managed to win a World Championship despite that fall, and the two teams from last year’s Game 163 showdown, the Rockies and Padres, who appear to have both fallen from Pike’s Peak into the depths of this year’s list.
As interesting as all of the above is, it does only account for four years of Hit List history. Expanding the field to incorporate the retroactively calculated Hit Lists in my historical Adjusted Standings spreadsheet reveals that the Rays don’t hold the claim of the biggest year-to-year gain of all time:
Year Team Rank Prev Diff 1999 D'backs 1 27 +26 2008 Rays 3 27 +24 1995 Angels 5 28 +23 1991 Braves 4 25 +21 1993 Giants 2 23 +21 2001 Cubs 8 29 +21 2000 White Sox 2 21 +19 2002 Angels 1 20 +19 2006 Tigers 2 21 +19 2008 White Sox 10 28 +18 1978 Brewers 4 22 +18 1991 Twins 2 20 +18 1998 Padres 4 22 +18
The honor for the top year-to-year improvement in Hit List ranking belongs to the 1999 Diamondbacks. After finishing 27th as a 65-win expansion club in 1998, they signed free agents Randy Johnson and Steve Finley, pulled off a historically lopsided deal (Karim Garcia to Detroit for Luis Gonzalez), won 100 games, took the NL West flag, and topped that year’s Hit List in just their second year of existence. The list also includes a few other notables, including the two rags-to-riches teams that met in the 1991 World Series, upstart pennant winners such as the 1998 Padres, 2002 Angels, and 2006 Tigers, and one of the great near-miss teams of all time, the 1993 Giants, who finished second in the NL West by a game despite notching 103 wins.
Ranking the teams by the number of notches they moved up in the pecking order isn’t ideal, however, in that it tilts the list towards teams in the post-expansion era. It makes more sense to rank by the improvement in Hit List Factor (the average of a team’s actual, first-, second-, and third-order winning percentages):
Year Team HLF Prev Diff 1903 Giants .609 .341 .268 1999 D'backs .631 .408 .223 1905 Phillies .563 .356 .207 1909 Athletics .644 .442 .202 1980 Athletics .525 .326 .199 1902 Reds .537 .344 .193 1904 Cardinals .497 .307 .190 1946 Red Sox .638 .452 .186 2004 Tigers .478 .293 .185 1915 White Sox .632 .447 .185 1989 Orioles .519 .342 .177 1912 Senators .584 .410 .174 1909 Yankees .499 .326 .173 1978 Brewers .591 .418 .173 1914 Cardinals .518 .346 .172 1910 Senators .454 .286 .168 1905 Senators .446 .278 .168 1993 Giants .614 .447 .167 1907 Tigers .613 .450 .163 1933 Red Sox .454 .291 .163
OK, maybe not. This list is saturated with teams from the Deadball Era, a period not exactly known for its stability or competitive balance, making drastic year-to-year swings much more common. Look no further than the club atop the list for a prime example. The 1903 Giants marked John McGraw‘s first full season at the helm; he’d come to New York the previous summer under some rather dubious shenanigans involving a feud between McGraw and Ban Johnson, president of the nascent American League, and the purchase of a majority-ownership stake of the Baltimore Orioles by Giants owner Andrew Freedman. The Orioles released McGraw midway through the 1902 season and he was hired to manage the Giants. About a week later, the Orioles released six other players, four of whom, including future Hall of Famers Roger Bresnahan and Joe McGinnity, joined McGraw in New York. They didn’t have an immediate effect on the Giants, but the following winter four AL players jumped their contracts and joined McGraw’s club. Yeah, that’s “when it was a game” wholesomeness.
Speaking of wholesome managerial genius, Billy Martin’s 1980 A’s are the top modern team on the list after the Diamondbacks. Taking over a club that had gone 54-108 the year before, Martin turned second-year left fielder Rickey Henderson loose on the basepaths and forced his starting pitchers to finish what they’d begun. Henderson swiped 100 bags, the staff completed 94 games, and the Billyball A’s won 83 games. Among the other post-World War II clubs here are a Red Sox team that had the benefit of Ted Williams for the first time in four years, a Tigers club that picked up the pieces the year after the team’s run at the single-season loss record, and an Orioles squad that helped erase the nightmare of the previous year’s 0-21 start.
The Rays, who improved by 157 points, miss the cut, but they place 13th once the Deadball Era teams are pared from the list:
Year Team HLF Prev Diff 1999 D'backs .631 .408 .223 1980 Athletics .525 .326 .199 1946 Red Sox .638 .452 .186 2004 Tigers .478 .293 .185 1989 Orioles .519 .342 .177 1978 Brewers .591 .418 .173 1993 Giants .614 .447 .167 1933 Red Sox .454 .291 .163 1953 Braves .597 .416 .161 1997 Tigers .494 .335 .159 1967 Cubs .549 .390 .159 1991 Braves .571 .413 .158 2008 Rays .587 .430 .157
In a rare bout of restraint, I’ll save the flip side of this history lesson-the teams that fell the furthest, as far as the Hit List is concerned-for another day, and turn back to the 2008 data. Here’s a look at how things changed from 2007, again using HLF:
Team 2008 2007 Diff Rays .587 .430 .157 White Sox .543 .427 .116 Cubs .602 .529 .073 Cardinals .530 .459 .071 Marlins .509 .452 .057 Astros .489 .439 .050 Twins .526 .487 .039 Royals .459 .426 .033 Brewers .544 .516 .028 Blue Jays .556 .528 .028 Dodgers .541 .522 .019 Rangers .481 .464 .017 D'backs .515 .500 .015 Phillies .555 .544 .011 Angels .549 .550 -.001 Mets .550 .551 -.001 Orioles .440 .453 -.013 Red Sox .608 .624 -.016 Pirates .394 .415 -.021 Athletics .471 .496 -.025 Reds .432 .459 -.027 Giants .434 .467 -.033 Yankees .551 .591 -.040 Indians .517 .566 -.049 Nationals .384 .436 -.052 Braves .478 .536 -.058 Tigers .477 .548 -.071 Rockies .467 .556 -.089 Mariners .397 .498 -.101 Padres .412 .533 -.121
Given that the two AL Division Series ended on Monday, it’s a bit late for this observation, but the contrast between the two matchups was striking, with the two most improved clubs (by both rank and Hit List Factor) squaring off in one and the two “steady Eddie” clubs in the other. The now-eliminated Angels deserve some kind of door prize for consistency; in the four years I’ve run the Hit List, they’ve finished fifth, seventh, sixth, and eighth, with HLFs between .547 and .562. Mike Scioscia, expect your official Hit List Toaster Oven to arrive by the time the World Series starts.
Aside from the Rays and White Sox, the rest of this year’s most improved clubs now find themselves on the sidelines-the already-eliminated Cubs and Brewers, and the close-but-no-cigar Cardinals, Astros, Marlins, and Twins. While there’s nothing inherently preventing such improved clubs from post-season success, it’s worth noting that among the 100 biggest annual improvements in HLF, only three teams from the division play era (1969 onward) have managed to win a World Series: the aforementioned 1991 Twins and 2002 Angels, plus last year’s Red Sox (who improved by 115 points).
The disappointments down towards the lower third of the above list-Indians and Tigers and Rockies, oh my-bring yet another means of comparison to mind. Here are the teams relative to their PECOTA-driven pre-season rankings in Hit List:
Team Final Pre Diff Twins .526 .451 .075 Blue Jays .556 .481 .075 Marlins .509 .438 .071 White Sox .543 .475 .068 Cardinals .530 .463 .067 Red Sox .608 .562 .046 Astros .489 .444 .045 Rays .587 .543 .044 Cubs .602 .562 .040 Orioles .440 .407 .033 Rangers .481 .451 .030 Phillies .555 .531 .024 Royals .459 .444 .015 Angels .549 .537 .012 Dodgers .541 .537 .004 Brewers .544 .543 .001 Giants .434 .438 -.004 D'backs .515 .531 -.016 Athletics .471 .494 -.023 Mets .550 .580 -.030 Rockies .467 .506 -.039 Braves .478 .525 -.047 Yankees .551 .599 -.048 Indians .517 .568 -.051 Pirates .394 .451 -.057 Nationals .384 .444 -.060 Reds .432 .494 -.062 Mariners .397 .463 -.066 Padres .412 .481 -.069 Tigers .477 .562 -.085
The Twins and Blue Jays both exceeded their PECOTA-projected winning percentage by 75 points. One could break the tie by noting that the Jays had a higher HLF and a larger jump in the rankings (17 spots, from 21st to 4th, as compared to 12 spots for the Twins, from 25th to 13th). On the other hand, one can argue that the Twins would have claimed the top spot here had they not lost their one-game playoff to the White Sox; they earned the right to that 163rd game, and shouldn’t be penalized for doing so. I’ll subscribe to that latter notion, while resisting the temptation to flog the dead horse of both teams’ early-season personnel mistakes once again; it will suffice to say that those improvements could have been even bigger.
Elsewhere on the list, note that while PECOTA did see the Rays’ improvement coming, it still underestimated the degree. Two reasons for that stand out: first, they improved their Defensive Efficiency by a record 64 points, a margin even higher than the 46-point increase that generated skepticism in this space last spring. Second, their bullpen wasn’t just competent, it was dominant, leading the majors in WXRL thanks to the stronger-than-expected efforts of J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler.
Lost in the hubbub is that the the defending World Champion Red Sox actually exceeded their PECOTA projection by a slightly larger margin than the Rays did, thanks in part to breakout seasons by Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuaka, and better-than-expected showings by J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez even considering their absences. All of that, plus the late-season addition of Jason Bay, offset the decline of David Ortiz and the struggles of Clay Buchholz. Brian Cashman’s battle to put the Yankees back atop the AL East will be a rough one given the youth of the two teams ahead of his.
At the bottom of the list, two bus stops beyond the bad teams who couldn’t even meet their grim PECOTA forecasts and the good ones that stumbled towards mediocrity, are the Tigers. Aside from Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordoñez, and the since-traded Ivan Rodriguez, nobody in the lineup exceeded their projections, but that wasn’t even half the problem that the rotation was. Even bringing Armando Galarraga and Zach Miner, two of the three Detroit pitchers who finished with double-digit VORPs, into the equation, the top seven Tiger starters were projected to accumulate 122.9 VORP. They actually finished with 28.4, with Jeremy Bonderman getting hurt, Justin Verlander putting together a 25th-percentile season, and Kenny Rogers, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson all finishing below replacement level.
What a nightmare. Luckily for the baseball-watching public, those Tigers have been enjoined from playing more baseball this year. Instead, we’ve got one of history’s storybook teams on tap for at least another round, in a matchup that doesn’t lack for storylines. Not a bad way to go.
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