Playoff Health Report:... (10/01)
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October 1, 2008 Prospectus TodaySettling the Central and Making Picks
The Brandon McCarthy-for-John Danks trade was largely considered a win for the Rangers at the time. McCarthy, a stat-head favorite for his ability to prevent walks, was seen as the kind of strike-throwing machine who would anchor the always-troubled Rangers rotation. Danks, on the other hand, had something of a failed-prospect sheen to him, and with his high fly-ball rate, seemed to be the type of pitcher who would struggle to establish himself. Last night, Danks put the final touches on the reversal of that story, throwing eight shutout innings to help give the White Sox a 1-0 win in the one-game playoff for the AL Central title. Danks, now more a ground-ball pitcher than he ever was before, worked his cut fastball in on the hands of the Twins' right-handed hitters and away from Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, allowing just one runner to reach third base. He also exploited the Twins' impatience at the plate and their collective lack of power. Nick Blackburn almost matched Danks, but for one fastball left up to Jim Thome in the seventh inning. As I mentioned in our in-game roundtable, I would not have even allowed Blackburn to face Thome in that situation, what with Thome and then Ken Griffey due up, the likelihood that the game would be decided on one swing of the bat, and the platoon differentials of those players. Ron Gardenhire, no doubt influenced by Blackburn's effectiveness through six innings, left his rookie right-hander in, and he paid for it. Blackburn clearly wasn't the goat last night—nor was Gardenhire, despite that questionable decision—but the Twins' hitters, who simply had poor approaches all night, are the ones to blame. After the Michael Cuddyer double in the fifth, the Twins sent 15 men to the plate, and Danks, along with Jenks who came on in the ninth, allowed nothing but a walk and a single, and used just 47 pitches between them. That's hideous, and it's why Minnesota's season ended last night. That gives us our slate of eight teams for the Division Series. My writeup of the Red Sox/Angels matchup appears elsewhere on the site. To sum up, it's unclear how healthy the Sox will be, so I'll assume mostly good health and take the better team, the Red Sox, in four. We now know that J.D. Drew is healthy, leaving Mike Lowell and, more importantly, Josh Beckett as the primary question marks. Here are my takes on the other three series:
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
FYI Joe, despite using Danks yesterday the White Sox will still likely have lefties starting 3 of the 5 games (2, 4, and 5), because after starting Game 2 Buehrle can go on normal rest in Game 5 should it get there. There is absolutely no way in hell Ozzie starts Vazquez instead of Buehrle in that game.
Put in that context, the Rays almost have to win Game 1, don't they? Not only would losing game 1 allow the Sox to only have to win their two home games to take the series, but the Sox would also have a lefty going in Games 2 and 5 in Tampa, one that has pitched pretty well down the stretch and shuts down the running game pretty much on his own. That's pretty tough sledding to have to win 3 of those 4 games.
I should also mention the Sox could start Danks in Game 3, I just assumed that they'd start Floyd in that game to give each an extra day of rest after their short-rest starts this week.