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September 3, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Wednesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Braves (60-79) at Marlins (70-69), 1:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Jorge Campillo (134 2/3 IP, 3.88 RA, 1.17 WHIP, 92 K) vs. Chris Volstad (56 1/3, 3.36, 1.40, 37)
Pythagorean Record: Atlanta, 67-72 (639 RS, 669 RA); Florida, 66-73 (647 RS, 681 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Atlanta, #21; Florida, #17
Prospectus: The Braves and Marlins played a wild game last night, with Atlanta blowing a 10-3 lead to fall behind 13-10 before coming back for a 16-14 victory. Mike Gonzalez pitched a one-two-three ninth inning for the save, only his eighth of the season despite taking over as the closer in mid-June. Atlanta has converted just 20 saves on the season, ranking at the bottom of the major leagues, five fewer than Cleveland and Washington, who are tied for next to last. That puts the Braves on pace to end the season with 23 saves, which would tie them with the 2002 Cubs for the lowest save total this decade. The last team to record fewer than 23 saves in a season was the 1996 Tigers with 22. That Detroit team wasn't in many games and finished the season with 109 losses, while this year's Braves have been outscored by only 30 runs, making their low saves total curious. The Braves have been involved in 47 blowouts (games decided by five runs or more), the second most in baseball behind Colorado, and when the game has been close they have almost always been on the wrong end, as evidenced by their 7-27 record in one-run affairs.

Atlanta is a major league-worst 5-17 since August 10, and the struggles of Campillo lately have contributed to that slide. The Mexican right-hander's fantastic rookie season has slowed of late, as he has given up 23 runs in 26 2/3 innings over his last five games, taking his ERA from 2.58 to 3.61. The entire Braves staff seems to have hit a wall; Atlanta has given up over seven runs per game in its 22-game skid. This is not entirely surprising, considering that Atlanta currently has three rookies in its rotation (Jair Jurrjens and Charlie Morton being the others), one second-year pitcher (Jo-Jo Reyes), and one who had not pitched at all in the last two seasons (Mike Hampton). All told, the current members of Atlanta's rotation combined to throw just 94 2/3 innings in the majors last year.

Matchup: Mariners (54-84) at Rangers (68-72), 1:05 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Felix Hernandez (168 IP, 3.64 RA, 1.34 WHIP, 154 K) vs. Dustin Nippert (49, 7.71, 1.94, 34) Pythagorean Record: Seattle, 58-80 (581 RS, 690 RA); Texas, 65-75 (768 RS, 836 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Seattle, #28; Texas, #22
Prospectus: Milton Bradley continued his fantastic season with three more hits last night, including a pair of doubles, which raised his seasonal line to .329/.448/.588. Bradley leads the American League in both on-base and slugging percentage (while standing just one point behind Dustin Pedroia in average), which stands to become one of the best offensive seasons in Texas franchise history. A first-time All-Star this year, Bradley has a shot at posting the highest OPS in the team annals—his current 1036 mark would rank second, ahead of Alex Rodriguez's three seasons in Arlington, and behind only the 1999 campaign of Rafael Palmeiro, in which Palmeiro set career highs with 47 homers and 148 RBI. Bradley also looks like a solid bet to establish a new franchise record for OBP, and is now comfortably ahead of the .432 that Toby Harrah put up in 1985 to establish the current high. By EqA, Bradley's .349 showing this year leads the American League and would be the best in team history, as would his .451 MLVr, which also tops the junior circuit. The only chink in Bradley's armor is his inability to stay healthy, but he has already played more this year (112 games) than in any of his previous eight seasons other than 2004, when he appeared in 141 games for the Dodgers. A free agent at the end of 2008 after signing a one-year deal, Bradley has set himself up to receive the first multi-year contract of his career this offseason.

Gerald Laird was one of the nicer offensive surprises for Texas in the first part of the season, as his OPS stood at 808 through the end of July. Texas elected to hang on to its 28-year-old backstop rather than deal him at the deadline, and Laird has slumped to a 608 OPS in 24 games since then. The catcher position is perhaps Texas' greatest organizational strength, and the Rangers have decided to split the playing time behind the dish over the season's final month between Laird and September call-up Taylor Teagarden, a decision which is not sitting well with Laird, who told the Dallas Morning News that he was "real disappointed" with the new arrangement.