CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Beat: Pitchers... (09/03)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Tu... (09/02)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Th... (09/04)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (09/03)

September 3, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Wednesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Braves (60-79) at Marlins (70-69), 1:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Jorge Campillo (134 2/3 IP, 3.88 RA, 1.17 WHIP, 92 K) vs. Chris Volstad (56 1/3, 3.36, 1.40, 37)
Pythagorean Record: Atlanta, 67-72 (639 RS, 669 RA); Florida, 66-73 (647 RS, 681 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Atlanta, #21; Florida, #17
Prospectus: The Braves and Marlins played a wild game last night, with Atlanta blowing a 10-3 lead to fall behind 13-10 before coming back for a 16-14 victory. Mike Gonzalez pitched a one-two-three ninth inning for the save, only his eighth of the season despite taking over as the closer in mid-June. Atlanta has converted just 20 saves on the season, ranking at the bottom of the major leagues, five fewer than Cleveland and Washington, who are tied for next to last. That puts the Braves on pace to end the season with 23 saves, which would tie them with the 2002 Cubs for the lowest save total this decade. The last team to record fewer than 23 saves in a season was the 1996 Tigers with 22. That Detroit team wasn't in many games and finished the season with 109 losses, while this year's Braves have been outscored by only 30 runs, making their low saves total curious. The Braves have been involved in 47 blowouts (games decided by five runs or more), the second most in baseball behind Colorado, and when the game has been close they have almost always been on the wrong end, as evidenced by their 7-27 record in one-run affairs.

Atlanta is a major league-worst 5-17 since August 10, and the struggles of Campillo lately have contributed to that slide. The Mexican right-hander's fantastic rookie season has slowed of late, as he has given up 23 runs in 26 2/3 innings over his last five games, taking his ERA from 2.58 to 3.61. The entire Braves staff seems to have hit a wall; Atlanta has given up over seven runs per game in its 22-game skid. This is not entirely surprising, considering that Atlanta currently has three rookies in its rotation (Jair Jurrjens and Charlie Morton being the others), one second-year pitcher (Jo-Jo Reyes), and one who had not pitched at all in the last two seasons (Mike Hampton). All told, the current members of Atlanta's rotation combined to throw just 94 2/3 innings in the majors last year.

Matchup: Mariners (54-84) at Rangers (68-72), 1:05 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Felix Hernandez (168 IP, 3.64 RA, 1.34 WHIP, 154 K) vs. Dustin Nippert (49, 7.71, 1.94, 34) Pythagorean Record: Seattle, 58-80 (581 RS, 690 RA); Texas, 65-75 (768 RS, 836 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Seattle, #28; Texas, #22
Prospectus: Milton Bradley continued his fantastic season with three more hits last night, including a pair of doubles, which raised his seasonal line to .329/.448/.588. Bradley leads the American League in both on-base and slugging percentage (while standing just one point behind Dustin Pedroia in average), which stands to become one of the best offensive seasons in Texas franchise history. A first-time All-Star this year, Bradley has a shot at posting the highest OPS in the team annals-his current 1036 mark would rank second, ahead of Alex Rodriguez's three seasons in Arlington, and behind only the 1999 campaign of Rafael Palmeiro, in which Palmeiro set career highs with 47 homers and 148 RBI. Bradley also looks like a solid bet to establish a new franchise record for OBP, and is now comfortably ahead of the .432 that Toby Harrah put up in 1985 to establish the current high. By EqA, Bradley's .349 showing this year leads the American League and would be the best in team history, as would his .451 MLVr, which also tops the junior circuit. The only chink in Bradley's armor is his inability to stay healthy, but he has already played more this year (112 games) than in any of his previous eight seasons other than 2004, when he appeared in 141 games for the Dodgers. A free agent at the end of 2008 after signing a one-year deal, Bradley has set himself up to receive the first multi-year contract of his career this offseason.

Gerald Laird was one of the nicer offensive surprises for Texas in the first part of the season, as his OPS stood at 808 through the end of July. Texas elected to hang on to its 28-year-old backstop rather than deal him at the deadline, and Laird has slumped to a 608 OPS in 24 games since then. The catcher position is perhaps Texas' greatest organizational strength, and the Rangers have decided to split the playing time behind the dish over the season's final month between Laird and September call-up Taylor Teagarden, a decision which is not sitting well with Laird, who told the Dallas Morning News that he was "real disappointed" with the new arrangement.

Matchup: Yankees (74-64) at Rays (84-52), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Carl Pavano (11 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 6/2 K/BB) vs. Edwin Jackson (156, 3.87 RA, 1.43 WHIP, 90 K)
Pythagorean Record: New York, 73-65 (671 RS, 630 RA); Tampa Bay, 78-58 (639 RS, 546 RA)
Hit List Rankings: New York, #10; Tampa Bay, #3
Prospectus: Pavano has earned the win in each of his first two starts of the year since coming off of the DL, one more victory than he compiled in each of the last two seasons combined. The return of the 32-year-old right-hander has been too little, too late for the Yankees playoff hopes, which are now below one percent. Pavano will be pitching for a new contract this September, and the Yankees will finally get out from under the pitcher's four year, $39.95 million albatross by paying the $1.95 million buyout on next year's $13 million club option. It would seem that Pavano is in line for only a minor league deal or non-roster invite to next year's camps given his supreme difficulty with staying on the field over the past four years, but a strong finish to the season might lead a team that's particularly desperate for starting pitching to throw some guaranteed cash his way.

Even with their loss last night, the Rays have the best record in baseball and are on pace to win 100 games this year. If they hit that mark, it would be an increase of 34 wins from last season, the second-largest jump in major league history since the American League was incorporated in 1901, excluding seasons in which there was a strike or a team played 10-plus games more than in the previous year. The one team which would rank ahead of Tampa Bay? Their sister club Arizona, which won 100 games in its second year of existence after a 65-win season in '98. This year's Rays are more similar to the '69 Miracle Mets, who averaged 105 losses over their first seven seasons (Tampa Bay averaged 97 over its first 10) before suddenly winning 100 and then the World Series. Here are the teams that increased their year-to-year total by at least 27 wins since 1901:


Years   Team     W_1  W_2  Plus  Notes
1902-03 Giants    48   84  +36*  Three more games played in second year
1998-99 D'backs   65  100  +35
1961-62 Phillies  47   81  +34*  Seven more games played in second year
1945-46 Red Sox   71  104  +33
1988-89 Orioles   54   87  +33*  One more game played in second year
1935-36 Braves    38   71  +33*  Four more games played in second year
1992-93 Giants    72  103  +31
1904-05 Phillies  52   83  +31
1901-02 Brw/Bro   48   78  +30*  One more game played in second year
1913-14 Cards     51   81  +30*  Four more games played in second year
2003-04 Tigers    43   72  +29
1990-91 Braves    65   94  +29
1946-47 A's       49   78  +29*  One more game played in second year
1966-67 Cubs      59   87  +28
1928-29 Phillies  43   71  +28*  Four more games played in second year
1952-53 Braves    64   92  +28*  Four more games played in second year
1968-69 Mets      73  100  +27
1908-09 A's       68   95  +27
1992-93 Phillies  70   97  +27
1973-74 Rangers   57   84  +27
1911-12 Senators  64   91  +27
1911-12 Red Sox   78  105  +27*  One more game played in second year
Date from Baseball-Reference.com

The largest year-to-year jumps come from the late 19th century, when the Cardinals increased from 39 to 84 wins from 1898-99 and the Brooklyn franchise from 54 to 101 during those same years. Brooklyn's dramatic turnaround, which led to the league championship, also came with a name change from the Bridegrooms to the Superbas, which perhaps bodes well for the 2008 fortunes of the former Devil Rays.

Matchup: Pirates (58-79) at Reds (61-77), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Zach Duke (159 1/3 IP, 5.59 RA, 1.53 WHIP, 78 K) vs. Edinson Volquez (163, 3.70, 1.34, 161)
Pythagorean Record: Pittsburgh, 56-81 (618 RS, 754 RA); Cincinnati, 59-79 (588 RS, 686 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Pittsburgh, #29; Cincinnati, #26
Prospectus: Pittsburgh ended a 10-game losing streak by beating the Reds 3-2 yesterday, with closer Matt Capps picking up his first save since returning from the DL last week. The Pirates have now played 29 games without either Xavier Nady or Jason Bay in the lineup after trading both at the deadline, and have scored an average of 2.9 runs in those contests, with a team batting line of .238/.296/.352. Still, this is a team that's probably less concerned with scoring runs than with testing out a few youngsters to see who might have a role on next year's Pirates club and beyond. Among their crop of kids, rookie outfielder Brandon Moss is making his case for a starting spot next spring, hitting six home runs and put up an 871 OPS in 111 plate appearances since arriving in the Bay trade with Boston.

Like the Pirates, the Reds have made a point of going young down the stretch. Cincinnati also shed its veteran starting corner outfielders in the second half, and have been playing rookies Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson every day, with Corey Patterson and Jolbert Cabrera platooning in the other open outfield spot. Dickerson has been outstanding since his call-up from Triple-A Louisville on August 12, with an 1127 OPS in 82 plate appearances, and his teammate Ryan Hanigan has also done quite well after getting the call two days earlier. Dusty Baker has formed a timeshare behind the plate between Paul Bako and Hanigan, who have each started 10 times since the rookie's recall. Hanigan offers an intriguing statistical profile, as he is a backstop with minimal power but an outstanding eye-he owns a career .382 OBP in over 2,100 minor league plate appearances, and he walked nearly as often as he struck out on the lower levels (245 BB to 248 K).

Matchup: Athletics (63-75) at Royals (58-79), 7:10 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Dana Eveland (139 IP, 4.27 RA, 1.47 WHIP, 94 K) vs. Brian Bannister (155, 6.15, 1.47, 101)
Pythagorean Record: Oakland, 64-74 (533 RS, 574 RA); Kansas City, 56-81 (562 RS, 686 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Oakland, #19; Kansas City, #25
Prospectus: Despite the A's rapid fall from contention in the second half, this is an exciting time for fans of the green and gold, thanks to the aggressive minor league promotions that GM Billy Beane has implemented throughout the season, as Oakland backers have been able to see the fruits of Beane's multiple trades right away at the major league level. Eveland was one of the three pitchers received for Dan Haren, and he and another of the trio, Greg Smith, have been mainstays in the rotation for most of the season. Two of the three position players taken in that haul, 21-year-old Carlos Gonzalez and 22-year-old Aaron Cunningham, have also seen time, with the latter having played left field in both games since being recalled from Sacramento on Sunday. The A's have also been looking at Eric Patterson, one of their acquisitions in the Rich Harden trade, at second base, where he has started in each of the last 10 games. The 25-year-old Patterson arrived in Oakland with a bad defensive reputation at the keystone, but if he can stick as an infielder his value would obviously be much higher, especially for an A's team that must decide whether to attempt re-signing incumbent second baseman Mark Ellis in the offseason.

Oakland has also started the speedy Rajai Davis in center field each of the past seven games. Davis and Patterson have helped transform the nature of a team that has been largely a collection of plodding mashers during Beane's tenure as GM; Oakland has stolen 73 bases this year, already more than it did in any season since 1998, which was Rickey Henderson's Bay Area farewell. Of course, Oakland also has the worst offense in the American League this year, ranking last in average, OBP, and slugging. The Royals have been the second-most egregious unit, so runs will come at a premium in this series.

Caleb Peiffer is a contributor to Baseball Prospectus. He can be reached here.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Beat: Pitchers... (09/03)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Tu... (09/02)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Th... (09/04)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (09/03)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Playoff Spotlight: Joe Pa...
Premium Article An Agent's Take: The Losses You Never Get Ov...
Premium Article Raising Aces: Brandon Finnegan, the Debut An...
Premium Article Pitching Backward: First-Pitching to the Sit...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: A Three-Act Tragedy, A T...
Pebble Hunting: The Best Teams Should Make T...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Gi...

MORE FROM SEPTEMBER 3, 2008
Future Shock: Ten September Call-up Stories
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Bankers Dozen
Fantasy Beat: Pitchers for 2009
Premium Article On the Beat: Contenders and Pretenders

MORE BY CALEB PEIFFER
2008-09-06 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Saturday's Games to Watc...
2008-09-05 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Friday's Games to Watch
2008-09-04 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Thursday's Games to Watc...
2008-09-03 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Wednesday's Games to Wat...
2008-09-02 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Tuesday's Games to Watch
2008-09-01 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Labor Day's Games to Wat...
2008-08-30 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Saturday's Games to Watc...
More...

MORE PROSPECTUS PREVIEW
2008-09-06 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Saturday's Games to Watc...
2008-09-05 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Friday's Games to Watch
2008-09-04 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Thursday's Games to Watc...
2008-09-03 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Wednesday's Games to Wat...
2008-09-02 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Tuesday's Games to Watch
2008-09-01 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Labor Day's Games to Wat...
2008-08-31 - Premium Article Prospectus Preview: Sunday's Games to Watch
More...