Printer-friendly

Contact Author

August 25, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Monday's Games to Watch

by Marc Normandin

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: White Sox (74-55) at Orioles (61-68), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Clayton Richard (20 IP, 8.55 RA, 1.75 WHIP, 15 K) vs. Chris Waters (90, 6.20, 1.17, 72—Triple-A)
Pythagorean Record: Chicago, 75-54 (672 RS, 561 RA); Baltimore, 64-65 (664 RS, 669 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Chicago, #4; Baltimore, #17
Prospectus: Before this contest kicks off, the Orioles and White Sox need to finish a game that was suspended back on April 28. At that time, the O's were 14-11 and the White Sox 14-10, and MVP candidate Carlos Quentin had hit his sixth homer of the young season. The game was suspended after the 11^th inning's conclusion, when both teams had scored one more run to prolong the evening. The White Sox should have won the game much earlier, as they stranded 14 baserunners during the course of the game against the Orioles' three, and wasted an excellent eight-inning effort from Javier Vazquez (one run, seven strikeouts, one walk). The significance of having this game's outcome pushed to today is that the White Sox are just half-a-game up on the Twins, and have a chance to gain as much as 1½ games on their rivals if they are able to wrap up the extra-inning game as winners and then take the regularly-scheduled clash as well.

As for the highlighted Preview game, the White Sox send Richard against an Orioles lineup that's hit very well during the second half. While Richard has performed well on the K/BB front—he has 6.8 strikeouts per nine and just 2.3 free passes per nine over his five appearances in the majors this year—he's given up an eye-popping 30.7-percent liner rate, which explains the .395 BABIP he's allowed. There are obviously small-sample issues if you try to draw much from those figures—he has thrown just 20 innings in the majors—but the thing to watch for is whether or not he's too predictable, either in strategy, or perhaps due to tipping his pitches. As a guy with a sinker and a high-80s fastball and no dominant offering to put hitters away, anything that helps the hitter is going to cause fluky stats, like his 52 percent strand rate and unsightly BABIP.

Matchup: Dodgers (65-65) at Phillies (71-59), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Chad Billingsley (162 2/3 IP, 3.37 RA, 1.28 WHIP, 168 K) vs. Brett Myers (143 1/3, 5.02, 1.39, 118)
Pythagorean Record: Los Angeles, 67-63 (541 RS, 527 RA); Philadelphia, 74-56 (629 RS, 542 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Los Angeles, #14; , Philadelphia, #12
Prospectus: Though the games mean the same thing mathematically in late August as they do in early April, the sense of urgency is more apparent now that the competing teams can see the finish line. Today's bout between the Dodgers and Phillies is a fine example, as both teams need this game in order to keep pace with the teams ahead of them. The Phillies find themselves just a half-game back of the Mets, while the Dodgers may be the more desperate club at three games back and with little or no shot at October baseball through any means except for the division title. While the Phillies would have their own issues catching the Brewers for the wild card (4½ games behind Milwaukee), the Dodgers are 10½ games out of that slot, with five teams ahead of them.

The lineup has performed well in August (.275/.333/.439) thanks to the contributions of newbie Dodgers Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, but the pitching staff has not been able to do anything productive outside of Chez Ravine. They have given up a .284/.358/.412 line on the road this month, and for the year, the team is 26-35 away from Dodger Stadium. That's easily the worst road winning percentage among teams competing for a playoff spot:

Team       RoadWP%
Cardinals   .561
Brewers     .530
Phillies    .523
Cubs        .500
Marlins     .492
Mets        .485
D'backs     .477
Astros      .471
Dodgers     .426