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August 22, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Friday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Dodgers (65-62) at Phillies (68-59), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Greg Maddux (153 1/3 IP, 4.70 RA, 1.22 WHIP, 80 K) vs. Kyle Kendrick (134 2/3, 5.55, 1.58, 61)
Pythagorean Record: Los Angeles, 67-60 (536 RS, 505 RA); Philadelphia, 71-56 (607 RS, 537 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Los Angeles, #14; Philadelphia, #12
Prospectus: Maddux begins his second stint with the Dodgers tonight after approving the trade from San Diego. He takes the rotation spot of Brad Penny, who is back on the DL for the second time and likely out for the year after lasting just two starts in his attempted comeback from shoulder difficulties. The Dodgers are hoping that Maddux can give them the same lift that he did during the stretch drive in 2006, when the future Hall of Famer posted a 3.79 RA in 12 starts, eight of which Los Angeles won, to help his new team secure the wild-card berth. Angelenos shouldn't expect too much from their new import, however, for Maddux has been largely reliant on Petco Park this season (6.4 RA/9 in 12 road starts). Out of the other dugout, Kendrick has failed to get out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts. The first of those came on August 11 in Los Angeles, when the Dodgers battered him for nine hits and seven runs, and then last Saturday Kendrick gave up six to the Padres in San Diego. Kendrick's K/9 is now down to 4.1 this season, the lowest of any NL qualifier. (Livan Hernandez, who recently arrived in the senior circuit with Colorado, is last in the majors with a 3.5 K/9.)

Ryan Howard took an 0-for-4 collar last night in Philadelphia's 4-3 loss to Washington, and with three strikeouts barely avoided the Golden Sombrero. Howard's seasonal slump has grown steadily worse: in his last 14 games, the slugger has five hits in 50 at-bats (.100), while his yearly rates have slipped down to .229/.317/.474, an OPS well below the NL average of 821 for the position. The woes of their first baseman have badly limited the Phillies' offensive capability, for this month Philadelphia is hitting .211 and has scored just 3.2 runs per contest, the second-lowest total among National League teams during August. The Phillies' outage has cost them 4½ games in the standings over their last nine games, as they now trail New York by 2½ in the NL East. Things just aren't going Philly's way in the division hunt right now; last night they were beaten by an infield single from light-hitting middle infielder Anderson Hernandez, whom the Mets recently traded to Washington.

Matchup: Yankees (67-60) at Orioles (61-65), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Mike Mussina (153 1/3 IP, 3.93 RA, 1.20 WHIP, 106 K) vs. Radhames Liz (47, 7.85, 1.79, 33)
Pythagorean Record: New York, 67-60 (610 RS, 571 RA); Baltimore, 63-63 (650 RS, 647 RA)
Hit List Rankings: New York, #8; Baltimore, #17
Prospectus: After putting up a Boeing-like 7.47 ERA in his first major league stint this year, Liz went down to Triple-A Norfolk and turned in three quality starts in four tries, including eight shutout innings against Charlotte in his last turn. That performance was good enough to get him back up in the name of mending the parent club's tattered rotation. The rookie right-hander will be going against Baltimore's former ace, who has been unable to handle his old team this season: the Orioles are the only squad Mussina has failed to beat among the 10 which he has faced at least twice this year. Mussina's two outings against the O's have both been ugly. Back on May 20 he failed to get out of the first inning for just the second time in his career, giving up seven runs (six unearned), and on July 28 allowed a pair of homers and six runs over five innings.

Mussina tonight will have to contend with Melvin Mora, who has been on a ridiculous tear of late. Mora knocked in four runs in Baltimore's last game on Wednesday, the fifth time in the past 12 that he has driven in four or more. That surge has pushed him into the AL top five in RBI with 95, just nine short of his career high set in 2004. Mora has been binging on RBI since the start of last month: from July 3 onward, he has knocked in 56 runs in 41 games, while hitting .385/.422/.683 in 180 plate appearances. The only other player to drive home more than 38 runs over that same stretch is Miguel Cabrera, with 49 RBI. Mora has now cashed in 21.1 percent of the runners on base during his at-bats this season, the third-highest OBI percentage amongst qualifiers behind Josh Hamilton and David DeJesus. Mora's exploits with runners on have helped the Orioles score 130 runs in August (6.8 per game), 10 more than the next-best team, the White Sox, has totaled for the month.