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July 22, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Tuesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Phillies (53-46) at Mets (53-46), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Joe Blanton (127 IP, 5.24 RA, 1.42 WHIP, 62 K) vs. Johan Santana (130 2/3, 3.65, 1.22, 116)
Pythagorean Record: Philadelphia, 57-42 (492 RS, 417 RA); New York, 53-46 (481 RS, 446 RA)
Hit List" Rankings: Philadelphia, #6; New York, #7
Prospectus: Tonight's series opener has even more juice than usual for this rivalry, for not only is Philadelphia's brand-new acquisition making his inaugural National League appearance against the Mets' ace, but both teams enter Queens tied for first place in the NL East, thanks to the Mets having won 11 of their last 13 games. This will be the fourth series of the year between the two combatants, and New York has taken each of the first three, winning two out of three in early April at Shea and then five out of seven in Citizens Bank Park, buying back at least a small amount of swagger for their fans after last September's debacle.

Blanton's acquisition makes it two years in a row that the Phillies have made a July trade for a right-handed starter with an RA north of 5.00. Last year it was Kyle Lohse, who brought his 5.19 RA over from Cincinnati at the deadline, and pitched decently for Philadelphia down the stretch (4.87 RA in 61 innings, which was close to league-average in Citizens Bank Park). While Blanton will be switching from the DH league to the weaker NL, he is also trading in the spacious outfield of McAfee Coliseum for the uncomfortably crowded confines of the Cit. Blanton posted a 4.96 ERA in 127 innings pitching in a park where the league average was 3.84; the average ERA in Philly this season is more than a half-run higher, 4.45. While it is questionable how effective Blanton will be, his durability is not in doubt—since the start of last season, the 250-pound workhorse has thrown 357 frames, more than all but CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, and Tim Hudson. Blanton will therefore augment a Philadelphia starting rotation that has thrown more innings than any other in the National League, averaging over six per start, and as Joe Sheehan pointed out in his second-half National League preview, help take some of the stress off a bullpen that has significantly overperformed to this point. Blanton held the Mets scoreless over 15 innings in his two career starts against New York (one each in '05 and '07), giving up eight hits with a 10/1 K/BB ratio, results which possibly added extra motivation for general manager Pat Gillick in his pursuit of the right-hander.

Matchup: Padres (38-62) at Reds (48-53), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Jake Peavy (101 2/3 IP, 2.74 RA, 1.12 WHIP, 100 K) vs. Johnny Cueto (117, 5.38, 1.37, 103)
Pythagorean Record: San Diego, 39-61 (376 RS, 475 RA); Cincinnati, 46-55 (445 RS, 495 RA)
Hit List Rankings: San Diego, #29; Cincinnati, #22
Prospectus: The Reds entered the top of the ninth with a 4-3 lead against the worst offensive team in the majors last night, one which was 0-53 this year when behind heading into its final at-bat, but they left that frame down 6-4. Cincinnati then loaded the bases with none out against the all-time saves leader, but Hoffman proceeded to strike out David Ross, get Javier Valentin to pop up, and strike out Jay Bruce to close out the win. Acting the goat was Reds closer Francisco Cordero, who blew his sixth save of the season. Cordero's unsavory campaign is one more example of why giving big money to established closers is almost always a bad idea: the variability of any 60 or 70 innings is simply too high to bank on, and a few bad ninth innings can make the investment essentially worthless in any given year. Already 33 years old, Cordero will be making $12 million each of the next three seasons, and it can be argued that he is only the third-best reliever on the team right now, with Jared Burton and Bill Bray both pitching very well in set-up roles.

The Cordero signing was probably former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky's worst transaction. In hindsight, however, it was also one of the few moves he made that can unequivocally be panned. Krivsky held the reputation as an outstanding judge of talent when he came over from the Twins organization, and he made good on that through several strong trades, as well as the selection of Burton in the '06 Rule 5 draft from Oakland. Bray arrived along with Daryl Thompson in the '06 deal that sent Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to Washington, which two years later appears to have turned out well for the Reds. Another trade that was criticized at the time, the shipment of Wily Mo Pena to Boston for Bronson Arroyo, also turned out to be a positive. Perhaps Krivsky's biggest coup was stealing Brandon Phillips from the Indians for a PTBNL, and he added the other member of Cincinnati's current starting middle infield, Jeff Keppinger, in a minor trade with Kansas City for a non-prospect. Then there was the purchase of Josh Hamilton from the Cubs and subsequent swap of him for Edinson Volquez. All told, it seems the former GM got a tough break in receiving only two years to implement his plan, and several of the players he traded for will most likely be a significant part of Cincinnati's next playoff season.