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July 21, 2008

Prospectus Today

Second-Half Preview, NL

by Joe Sheehan

A quick note on process: Sometimes, you have an idea that you like, but when you don’t execute it immediately, it blocks everything else, and you’re stuck hating it, unable to work on it, and unable to move past it.

That’s what we have here. A big second-half preview sounded like a real good idea last Thursday. Now, it’s sitting on my desktop like a pile of spinach, one that I have to eat if I'm to be allowed to eat any other part of the meal. I’ll choke it down, but really, all I want to do is get to the steak and potatoes of what’s happening now.

NL East

The Mets were the best team at the start of the year, and they look like the best team now. Their recent run isn’t about the managerial change at all; it’s about having a five-man core of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and John Maine—feel free to name Billy Wagner, instead—that matches up against any team in baseball. The team around that has been shaky, but when you start with 45 WARP in five roster spots, you’re far, far ahead of the game. They could use a corner outfielder who can rake, and getting even the fourth-best one available in the market, such as Brian Giles, would be a nice pickup. Even if they don’t pull that off, they should hang on for the division crown.

The Phillies have overachieved to date on the backs of a bullpen that was way, way over its head for a few months. Getting Joe Blanton helps, because every inning he throws—and he will throw some innings—keeps the pen out of the game as its regression continues. It still doesn’t seem like that will be enough, especially given the OBP sinks on the roster and the lack of organizational depth. This team isn’t as good as last year’s version; the caveat there is that last year’s team didn’t look that impressive until September 1 or so.