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June 27, 2008

The Mill

Sabathia Rumors

by Will Carroll and Kevin Goldstein

With teams already around the half-way point in games played and closing in on the All-Star break, talk of the trade season is starting to heat up, and one rumor has been getting more attention than any other: Will the Indians deal their ace, C.C. Sabathia? If they will, who would the suitors be? Will Carroll started to take a look at the possibilities and realized that he needed help analyzing the potential prospect packages they could receive in return. Kevin Goldstein stepped in to size up the market for the sizable pitcher. Here's their conversation and analysis:

Will Carroll: Kevin, the Indians are at least thinking about trading C.C. Sabathia. You know the minor league systems of teams as well as anyone, so let's take a look at what the Indians needs are and what teams might match up there. First off, a lot of people are looking at a potential Sabathia deal as Bartolo Colon, the sequel. Is that the kind of payoff that the Indians should be looking for, or is "better than the two picks they'd get in the draft" the bar to cross?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably somewhere in between. It's possible that the Dan Haren trade kind of becomes the new baseline, but I don't think the Indians will be able to match even that, because in most scenarios, C.C. is really just a half-year (or less) rental. They'll certainly get more value than just the picks if they trade him, but I don't think teams will pay a ton (like five, six guys) like they have for other players they can assure will be around for a while.

WC: If we're looking at a two- or three-player deal and you're Mark Shapiro, are you trying to get the best available talent, or do you look at organizational needs? If it's the latter, what are the two or three top needs for the Indians?

KG: I think if you're the Indians, you're just looking for the most talent, period. That said, in a trade like this there is often some pressure to get at least something that can be in the big leagues now or very quickly in order to appease the fans. On a pure prospect level, the Indians are short on up-the-middle types, but you can say that about a lot of systems. In addition, as the old cliché goes, you can never have enough pitching.