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June 25, 2008

Prospectus Today

K-Rod Zeroes In

by Joe Sheehan

Monday night, Francisco Rodriguez closed out an Angels 3-2 win over the Nationals by striking out the side in the ninth, picking up his 31^st save in the process. With the Angels having played 78 games after Tuesday night’s win, that puts Rodriguez comfortably on pace to break Bobby Thigpen’s single-season record of 57 saves, set in 1990.

It’s not terribly unusual for a pitcher to have at least some chance at the saves record at midseason. In the recent past, there was John Smoltz in 2003, Eric Gagne in 2002, and Kazuhiro Sasaki in 2001. However, no one has reached 56 saves since Thigpen did so; Gagne had 55 with five games to play in 2003, but didn’t get an opportunity in any of them. Smoltz had 53 with six games to go, but garnered just two opportunities after that. Sasaki had 25 saves through 62 Mariners games, but just 20 in the last 100, picking up just 24 opportunities in that stretch.

See, that is the key word: opportunities. Saves are unlike most achievements, in that specific game conditions need to be met to rack them up. It’s not enough to be dominant, it’s not even enough to convert your opportunities. You have to be given enough chances to have any shot at breaking this record. It’s impossible to overstate this point when it comes to saves: performance matters, but opportunity matters more.

How hard is it to pick up 57 saves? Just five pitchers have ever even had 57 save opportunities in one season.

Bobby Thigpen   65  1990
Randy Myers     59  1993
John Smoltz     59  2002
Rod Beck        58  1998
Mariano Rivera  57  2001
Mariano Rivera  57  2004

Thigpen had 57 saves…and six more opportunities than anyone else has ever had. Think about that. Every year, someone can hit 74 homers, or drive in 192 runs, or pop 263 hits, because those feats are all under a player’s control, a function of playing time and performance. Saves, however, are a function of save opportunities as well. Just three players in baseball history have ever had a chance to break Thigpen’s record: Smoltz, Myers, and Beck. Each fell short despite having fantastic seasons.