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June 13, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Friday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Marlins (36-30) at Rays (38-28), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Ryan Tucker (70 IP, 1.41 RA, 1.09 WHIP, 62 K, Double-A) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (79 1/3, 5.45, 1.41, 49)
Pythagorean Record: Florida, 33-33 (324 RS, 325 RA); Tampa Bay, 36-30 (299 RS, 275 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Florida, #14; Tampa Bay, #6
Prospectus: This series has traditionally held little meaning beyond territorial bragging rights; last year both teams were in fourth place in their respective divisions when they first met, and the year before that they were both in last. From 1998 to 2007, the Devil Rays entered the series as a last-place club in seven of 10 seasons. This year, however, each team begins the series with a winning record for the first time; both are in second place in their respective divisions. Florida has won 34 of the 55 games played so far against the Devil Rays since they came into existence in 1998, but this year the Marlins are facing a new team, in both name and quality.

Florida and Tampa Bay are linked by their low cost of assembly. The Marlins had the smallest Opening Day payroll in baseball, at $21.8 million, less than half that of the next lowest team, the Rays ($43.7 million). One can measure how efficiently each team has spent its money by calculating marginal dollars per win (MP/MW), the method developed by the late Doug Pappas. In Pappas' words:

A good way to judge the efficiency of a team's front office is to compare the amount it spends on players to the number of wins it registers beyond that which could be attained by fielding a replacement-level club on which everyone earned the major league minimum salary.

To compute this, I've assumed that a replacement-level club would play .300 ball, which translates to 48.6 wins in a 162-game season. A club's "marginal wins" thus equals ((winning percentage -.300) x 162). For marginal payroll, the baseline assumes a 25-man active roster and three-man DL with everyone earning the major league minimum.

In 2008, the league minimum is $390,000, so 28 slots for a team earning rock bottom comes out to $10.92 million, or almost exactly half what the Marlins are paying. The Fish are playing at a .545 clip, which over the course of a full season computes to 39.8 marginal wins. Therefore, if Florida maintains its current winning percentage, it will pay just over $274,600 for each marginal win--an extremely low figure. For the Rays, that mark is $734,800. (Compare that to the Yankees, who are on track to spend nearly $6 million per marginal win.) The system is not perfect, in that any team earning near the minimum will come up with a very low marginal win cost, even if it is only a handful of games above replacement level, and also because all wins aren't created equal, because those bringing a team closer to the playoffs are more valuable. As a quick sketch of how well teams are spending, however, MP/MW is an effective tool, and any total under $1 million paid by a winning team is especially impressive.

Matchup: Red Sox (42-27) at Reds (32-36), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Justin Masterson (24 1/3 IP, 2.59 RA, 1.07 WHIP, 18 K) vs. Aaron Harang (94, 4.60, 1.33, 82)
Pythagorean Record: Boston, 40-29 (355 RS, 294 RA); Cincinnati, 31-37 (307 RS, 336 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Boston, #2; Cincinnati, #19
Prospectus: Boston will play its first game at the Great American Ballpark tonight, and its first game in Cincinnati since the 1975 World Series, when the Big Red Machine downed the Red Sox in seven. Neither team enters the series at full strength, as the premier lefty slugger on both the Red Sox and the Reds has been limited by injury: David Ortiz is on the DL, while Adam Dunn is playing through "general soreness" (which Will Carroll states is actually shoulder swelling similar to tendonitis or bursitis). Dunn has seen his batting average fall from .261 on May 29 down to .229, and over the past 10 games has just three hits in 32 at-bats. Cincinnati can't afford to do without the production of its main power bat, but the Red Sox have been able to get by without Ortiz thanks to a timely J.D. Drew hot streak. From June 1, the first day Ortiz was out of the lineup, Boston's right fielder has 18 hits in 36 at-bats, including six home runs, and has posted a scorching 1798 OPS in 48 PA, bringing his EqA to a team-leading .325. This is the player that the Red Sox brass surely envisioned when it signed him to a five-year, $70 million deal before last season.