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June 11, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Wednesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Mariners (23-42) at Blue Jays (34-33), 12:37 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Felix Hernandez (88 IP, 3.38 RA, 1.38 WHIP, 74 K) vs. Shaun Marcum (85 2/3, 2.73, 0.97, 71)
Pythagorean Record: Seattle, 26-39 (257 RS, 322 RA); Toronto, 37-30 (276 RS, 250 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Seattle, #29; Toronto, #10
Prospectus: Marcum has broken through this year to lead all American League starters with 2.8 SNLVAR. The right-hander has churned out 10 quality starts in 13 tries, yet has won just five times--two fewer than expected--thanks to the Jays having scored a paltry 4.2 runs per game in his starts. Marcum's statistics reveal an odd dichotomy: he has given up nine home runs, or a little more than one per nine innings, but just 50 other hits. That has led to a BABIP of .215, which is the second-lowest amongst all qualified pitchers next to Gavin Floyd, and Marcum also ranks second in the majors amongst qualifiers in batting average against (.188) and H/9 IP (6.2), behind Edinson Volquez in both categories. Marcum is the frontman of a rotation that has been the second best in the major leagues in SNLVAR, at 9.88, just a hair behind Cleveland's total of 9.97. The Blue Jays have also gotten more innings from their starters than any other team, 432.

The dominance displayed by Toronto's starting pitchers this season makes the rumor that the team was after Seattle's Erik Bedard a curious one. What the Blue Jays really need is a bat or two for their lineup, because while it has displayed admirable patience, ranking first in the AL with 255 walks, it's delivering very little power, 12^th with a .377 slugging percentage. The Blue Jays have also been badly hurt by their propensity to ground into double plays, which they have already done 77 times this season, tops in the majors. Alex Rios is probably the fastest player on the team--he leads Toronto with 15 steals and is tied for the lead with a pair of triples--yet he has grounded into 11 double plays, after he hit into just nine last year in 161 games and 10 the year before in 128. That puts him second in the AL, behind only Vladimir Guerrero, who has hit into 12. Rios and the Jays are currently on pace to hit into 186 double plays this season, which would break the major league record of 174 set by the 1990 Red Sox. Toronto could well increase its total today, for ground-ball maestro Felix Hernandez has induced 13 double plays in his 13 starts this year, the sixth-highest total in the majors.

Matchup: Rays (38-27) at Angels (40-26), 12:35 p.m. PT
Probable Starters: Scott Kazmir (45 IP, 1.60 RA, 0.91 WHIP, 44 K) vs. John Lackey (37, 1.95, 0.95, 25)
Pythagorean Record: Tampa Bay, 35-30 (297 RS, 271 RA); Los Angeles, 34-32 (280 RS, 275 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Tampa Bay, #6; Los Angeles, #11
Prospectus: The best pitching matchup of the week takes place in today's Angel Stadium matinee, as two of the AL's top pitchers face each other for the first time. Lackey has fired off quality starts in all five of his appearances since coming off the DL May 14, while Kazmir has put up six in a row, including six scoreless frames in a win over the Halos on May 10 to start the streak. Neither pitcher has allowed more than a hit per inning in any of those 11 starts. Lackey will be facing Tampa Bay for the 11^th time; in his first 10 starts he went 8-1 with a 2.60 RA and 1.03 WHIP against the then-Devil Rays.

Both of these teams have won more games than their raw runs scored/allowed totals indicate they should have, although only one can be considered to have been lucky. The Angels' 280 runs scored are four more than their AEqR total of 276, and their 275 runs allowed are 11 fewer than their AEqRA total of 286, which leaves them with a third-order record of 32-34. That eight-game gap between actual and expected record is by far the largest in the majors; St. Louis is second at +4.7. The Angels have been the beneficiary of a very easy schedule: the team they have played most often so far has been the last-place Mariners, with nine games, and they have also racked up 11 games against the underbelly of the AL Central--Detroit and Kansas City--while playing the Red Sox and Yankees just three times total thus far. As mentioned on Monday, Los Angeles has also been fortunate in the timeliness of its relief pitching, as the bullpen's WXRL (AL-leading 5.8) does not match up with the Angels' relievers raw performances (21^st in the majors with 5.7 ARP). Tampa Bay, meanwhile, plays in the toughest division and consequently has had one of the toughest schedules so far, with a combined 26 games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and White Sox. The Rays, in fact, have played a grand total of five games against teams currently below .500, seven percent of their games, compared with 30 for the Angels, 45 percent.