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June 10, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Tuesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: White Sox (37-26) at Tigers (26-37), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Jose Contreras (81 2/3 IP, 2.87 RA, 1.04 WHIP, 50 K) vs. Nate Robertson (71 2/3, 6.03, 1.54, 49)
Pythagorean Record: Chicago, 39-24 (305 RS, 235 RA); Detroit, 29-34 (293 RS, 320 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Chicago, #7; Detroit, #24
Prospectus: After losing the final three matches of a four-game series in Tampa Bay (inspiring another Ozzie meltdown), Chicago has returned home to win seven in a row, sweeping the Royals and the Twins to extend its lead in the AL Central to 6.5 games. The White Sox averaged 8.7 runs scored per game during the streak. Perhaps the best news is that Nick Swisher put together several huge games in a row for the first time this season, with a two-homer performance yesterday and seven hits in his last 10 at-bats. Swisher is finally beginning to show the power that made him a sleeper candidate for a 40-homer campaign before the start of the season. Second baseman Alexei Ramirez has also continued to rake since replacing Juan Uribe at the keystone. From the point that he entered the starting lineup on May 16, Ramirez has hit .365/.396/.565, and the White Sox have scored 5.2 runs/game with an 825 OPS, as opposed to 3.7 with a 695 in the 21 previous games. The Sox have become a legitimate contender for the division title, and now have the best shot of any team in baseball at making the playoffs, 89 percent.

A huge part of Chicago's success this season has been the pitching of Contreras, who entered last night's game ranked second in the AL in SNLVAR following a stretch of six straight quality starts. Contreras has been nearly three times as valuable this year in 12 starts than he was last year in 30, per SNLVAR. Contreras is succeeding by generating far more groundballs than he ever has before--his ground-ball/fly-ball ratio is a robust 2.44, which is just about double his career average entering 2008 of 1.23. Contreras's newfound ground-ball acumen is reflected in his homer rate: he has given up 0.3 HR/9 compared to his career average of 1.1 entering 2008. A glance at the pitch data offers an explanation for the Cuban's renaissance--he is throwing far fewer fastballs, bringing the heat about 50 percent of the time compared with 56 percent last year and 62 the year before, and is substituting in more sliders, a pitch that he is throwing nearly twice as often this year than in 2006. Contreras has also bumped up his use of the splitter. It appears that increased reliance on breaking stuff has contributed to more ground-balls and a career year.

Matchup: Diamondbacks (34-30) at Mets (30-32), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Micah Owings (82 2/3 IP, 4.68 RA, 1.33 WHIP, 49 K) vs. John Maine (70 2/3, 3.95, 1.34, 50)
Pythagorean Record: Arizona, 36-28 (306 RS, 270 RA); New York, 31-31 (290 RS, 288 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Arizona, #8; New York, #12
Prospectus: After winning seven of nine games to climb back above .500 and remove manager Willie Randolph from the hot seat, the Mets were swept in four straight by San Diego to close their western road trip and fall back below the break-even point. New York now returns to Shea for a six-game home stand sitting in fourth place in the division with a 16 percent shot at the playoffs (although that number improves to 26 percent in the PECOTA-adjusted report). The Mets, however, can remember back to 1999 for inspiration, when a team with similarly high expectations got off to a similarly rough start. A second straight loss to the Yankees in the Bronx on June 5 was the team's eighth in a row, dropping New York to 27-28 and six games behind Atlanta. After that game, general manager Steve Phillips shook things up by firing pitching coach Bob Apodaca, hitting coach Tom Robson, and bullpen coach Randy Niemann. Skipper Bobby Valentine then announced, "In the next 55 games, if we're not better, I shouldn't be the manager," and went on to say that "something like 40 and 15 would be good." Remarkably, the Mets went out and accomplished just that, beating the Yankees the next night 7-2 to end their skid and start a torrid run of 40 wins in their next 55 games, which moved them to 1.5 games ahead in the division. New York eventually finished 6.5 behind the 103-win Braves, but it did win the Wild Card and advance to the NLCS, where the Mets lost to Atlanta. It is unclear, of course, whether the firings of June 5 had any part in the Mets going on their run, or whether Valentine's comments inspired the team to play better, but the lesson for this year's team is that, well, It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over.

That 1999 season also produced one of the classic Shea Stadium moments, which came at the expense of Arizona in the NLDS. In Game Four, with the Mets leading two games to one and the score tied at three in the bottom of the 10^th, backup catcher Todd Pratt sent a 1-0 Matt Mantei pitch over the center-field wall for a walk-off, series-ending home run. Shea has seen three walk-off homers in the playoffs--the others being Benny Agbayani's shot to end Game Three of the 2000 NLDS vs. San Francisco, and Lenny Dykstra's two-run homer to win Game Three of the 1986 NLCS vs. Houston--more than every park other than Fenway or Yankee Stadium. Ed. note: there was also Robin Ventura's famous grand-slam single that won Game Five of the '99 NLCS.